Exclusive: Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 14:21
The Dallas Fed met with the banks a week ago and effectively suspended mark-to-market on energy debts and as a result no impairments are being written down. Furthermore, as we reported earlier this week when first nothing the rumor, the Fed indicated "under the table" that banks were to work with the energy companies on delivering without a markdown on worry that a backstop, or bail-in, was needed after reviewing loan losses would exceed the current tier 1 capital tranches.
The Deflation Monster Has Arrived
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 12:04
The world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.
"How The Investment Grade Dominos Will Fall" - UBS Explains
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 20:42
As a potential worst case scenario, we use the simple sum of probabilities from 2001- 2002 and the current debt stock as an example of what could happen during a protracted downturn. If this comes to fruition, we estimate fallen angel volumes over 2 years could spike to $413bn, with $117bn of 10+ fallen angel paper (again crashing into a 10+ HY market that is only $48bn in size). This is an ugly spectre that the high-grade markets would need to face in future years.
CNN Reassures Investors: "Don't Panic... America's Economy Is Still In Good Shape"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 20:00
When Omnipotence Fails: JPMorgan Warns Upside Uncompelling As Central Bank Put Wanes
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 19:15
It would be hard for a year to start any worse than 2016 has... "Prices are oversold and sentiment hasn’t been this despondent in a long time (even Aug/Sept wasn’t this palpably negative) but any bounce will not be particularly impressive and in a lot of ways that is the main problem as the upside just isn’t compelling enough to make a major stand...as Western central banks attempted to mollify sentiment with dovish rhetoric but to no avail."
How Did Americans Get So Fat, In Seven Charts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 18:27
Americans are fat. They are so fat very few would even bother to click on a hyperlink in this article explaining how fat they are, so instead we will present 7 charts showing how the situation got so dire.
The Map That Will Change The Way You See The World
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 17:55
How do you view your country relative to others? Chances are if it’s based on most world maps, your view is distorted.
How QE Crushes The Real Economy & Why The Secular Low In Treasury Yields Lies Ahead
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 17:20
The economy was supposed to fire on all cylinders in 2015. Sufficient time had passed for the often-mentioned lags in monetary and fiscal policy to finally work their way through the system according to many pundits inside and outside the Fed. Surely the economy would be kick-started by: three rounds of QE and forward guidance; a record Fed balance sheet; and an unprecedented increase in federal debt to $18.63 trillion in 2015, a jump of 86%. Further, stock prices had gained sufficiently over the past several years, thus the so-called wealth effect would boost consumer spending. But the economic facts of 2015 displayed no impact from these massive government experiments.
Iran Sanctions Lifted As Nuclear Deal Implemented, US Hostages Freed
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 16:50U.S. + EU will begin lifting nuclear-related sanctions, expanding the horizon of opportunity for the Iranian people.
— John Kerry (@JohnKerry) January 16, 2016
President Obama's Iran Policy Explained (In 1 Cartoon)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 16:45
"Hands Up... Don't Nuke"?
Too Many "Think Tanks" Are Just Kool-Aid Fueled Group-Think
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 16:10
Over the last 5 years the various Fed QE (quantitative easing) interventions into the capital markets has facilitated dumb luck trading into “genius” status, and no clue analysis into “spot on brilliant” prognostications. The real issue at hand is many believed their own press, and the current state of egg on their face would make many a Denny's blush. As bad as that sounds – it gets worse.
With Draghi On Deck, ECB Mulls Steps To Solve "Non-Existent" Bond Scarcity Problem
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 15:35
It’s nearly that time again. On the heels of December’s “big disappointment” wherein Mario Draghi cut the depo rate by a “measly” 10 bps and extended PSPP by an underwhelming six months, the ECB meets again next week, and this time around, expectations are low. But even if Draghi doesn't budge in January, most expect more easing is one the way. The only question is this: how will the Frankfurt cabal cope with the shrinking pool of purchase eligible assets?
The Great Unraveling Looms - Blame The 'Austrians'?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 15:00
Decades of accumulated market distortions appear to be on the brink of a great unwind, most of which can be blamed on expansionary monetary policies. If so, the banking crisis of 2008 was a prelude, rather than the crisis itself. The Keynesians will blame the Fed for a complete policy failure. The reality is, that by implementing conventional policies on the recommendation of group-thinking macroeconomists, the central banks have dug a hole too deep to escape. Recognition of the merits of Austrian sound money theory will simply expose this reality sooner than later.
Was That The Capitulation? Not Even Close
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 13:50
Is it different this time?
Earthquake Economics - Waiting For The Inevitable "Big One"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 - 13:15
Several more slips like this one and the President’s strongest, most durable economy in the world could backslide into recession. On top of that, ‘the big one’ could rupture at any moment.
