• Bruce Krasting
    12/18/2014 - 21:42
      The one thing that Jordan can't do in this war is appear to be weak.

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"Some North Korean Folks Are Hacking..." President Obama Explains "Costs" - Live Feed

Having become convinced that the North Koreans are responsible for hacking the Japanese company Sony (with the apparent help of China or some Chinese folks... though not Russia or ISIS yet), President Obama will hold a press conference to - we are sure - show us the proof, explain how bad the movie was anyway, discuss the "costs" to be imposed, and point out that the terrorists did not win...



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US Oil Rig Count Tumbles Most In Over 5 Years,"Demand From Oilfield Customers Dropping Rapidly"

"Unequivocally" not good. Following last week's surge in initial jobless claims for 'Shale' states, Baker Hughes confirms rig counts continue to tumble.  The last two weeks have seen the total US rig count fall the most since 2009 (and Canada down 9.3% this week alone). Seemingly confirming this weakness, The Kansas City Fed notes respondents see non-durable (petroleum) demand "sluggish", and rather awkwardly against the "everything's great meme," one respondent exclaims, "demand from oilfield customers is dropping rapidly." The current US rig count is now the lowest in 5 months.



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The Biggest Economic Story Going Into 2015 Is Not Oil

Once again oil is not even the biggest story today. It’s plenty big enough by itself to bring down large swaths of the economy, but in the background there’s an even bigger tale a-waiting. Not entirely unconnected, but by no means the exact same story either. It’s like them tsunami waves as they come rolling in. It’s exactly like that. That is, in the wake of the oil tsunami, which is a long way away from having finished washing down our shores, there’s the demise of emerging markets. And we're not talking Putin, he’ll be fine, as he showed again yesterday in his big press-op. It’s the other, smaller, emerging countries that will blow up in spectacular fashion, and then spread their mayhem around. And make no mistake: to be a contender for bigger story than oil going into 2015, you have to be major league large. This one is.



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Just One Question About Yesterday's Last Minute "Berserk ETF" Freak Out

With 4 seconds to the close of yesterday's epic trading session, someone executed over $200 million and 1,147 trades in SPY - the S&P 500 ETF - in one-second, lifting the price to a S&P level of 2,130. This massive-loss-making "fat-finger" - resulting in millions of losses - would normally be followed by "probes" from the exchange into "erroneous trades" and then rapidly accompanied by the exchanges busting all the losing trades. But not this time! In all other cases of fat-finger'd and busted trades, we have learned who the counterparty was - even Goldman Sachs was exposed after regulators DK'ed its busted trades several years ago. So, the question is - why hasn't the other side of yesterday's berserk "fat-finger" buying spree in SPY spoken out in anger that its massive money losing trade will not be DKed?



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The "FBI Has Concluded That The North Korean Government Is Responsible", Will "Impose Costs"

"As a result of our investigation, and in close collaboration with other U.S. Government departments and agencies, the FBI now has enough information to conclude that the North Korean government is responsible for these actions. While the need to protect sensitive sources and methods precludes us from sharing all of this information, our conclusion is based, in part, on the following... the FBI will identify, pursue, and impose costs and consequences on individuals, groups, or nation states who use cyber means to threaten the United States or U.S. interests."



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Epic Bot Fraud: Up To 50% Of All Publisher Traffic Is From Fake Clicks; Billions In Ad Revenue At Risk

Up to 50% of publisher traffic (!) is bot activity, just fake clicks from automated computing programs.
Bots account for 11 percent of display ad views and 23 percent of video ads.
Between 3 percent and 31 percent of programmatically bought ad impressions were found to be from bots, with an average of 17 percent.
More than half of traffic from third parties claiming to lift publishers' traffic numbers comes from bots.



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Credit & Volatlity Are Flashing Red, "But We Aren't In A Crisis, Are We?"

We are currently experiencing disturbances in the force. Credit and volatility have never acted this way before, and I can quantify it exactly. Never before has the VIX gone from 11 to 20 in just four days. But it’s actually bigger than that. Volatility is itself volatile. You can measure the volatility of volatility; traders call it “vvol.” And the only times vvol has been this high since the advent of VIX options were in 2007, 2008, and 2011—all times of serious crisis. But we aren’t in a crisis now, are we? Well, we might be, if you think vvol has any predictive power, as we do.



Tyler Durden's picture

The Interview Is "Desperately Unfunny", "Will Flop" If Not Cancelled According To Leaked Sony Emails

The conspiracy theories surrounding the story of The Interview's cancelation in the aftermath of the North Korean "hacking" just keep getting stranger by the day (and will, in 6-9, months lead to the blockbuster drama: "How 'The Interview' Got Cancelled"). Because where it gets downright bizarre, however, is that as Reuters also reported earlier citing leaked emails of international Sony Pictures executive, the infamous movie in question "is "desperately unfunny" and would have flopped overseas if it had not been canceled." Wait a minute, it sounds almost as if the evil North Korean "hackers" did Sony... a favor?



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"Fed To The Rescue" - The Plunge Protection Team Makes The Front Page

In October it was Jim Bullard's "QE4" hint that sent the stock market on an all-time record-breaking run of gains, which no lesser institution than the central banker's central bank - The BIS - lamented "the markets' buoyancy hinges on central banks' every word and deed." And then just two days ago, The Fed did it again: by the mere appearance of grandma Yellen (and the words "patient" and "considerable"), US stocks explode to their greatest back-to-back gains in almost six years. So it is perhaps ironic that no more mainstream media publication than USA Today has finally realised, there are no fundamentals anymore...



Tyler Durden's picture

The Stock 'Market' Just Broke Another Intriguing Record

Never in the history of the S&P 500 e-mini futures contract has so many contracts been traded at the market open... Thank you Johnny-5...



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HFT Accounts For 76% Of All Orders In Europe



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Yellen Decoupled Stocks From Oil, BofA Warns It Won't Last

As we have noted in the last two days, on the heels of Janet Yellen's mutterings, US equity markets have exploded higher even as the highly correlated and causative oil prices have done anything but rise. This 'fact' has not escaped BofA's Hans Mikkelsen's attention as he warns, "While stocks currently are getting a break from oil, it appears most likely that they reconnect when the decline in oil prices accelerates – especially if we see associated weakness in credit and EM." And sure enough, modestly at first, the two are starting to converge this morning...



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Russia Busts "Gold-Selling" Rumors, Reports It Bought Another 600,000 Ounces Taking Gold Holdings To New Record High

Moments ago, as if to sway further speculation that Russia is indeed converting hard money earned from real resources for fiat paper, the Russian monetary authority made it quite clear, that at least in November, Russia not only did not sell any gold, but in fact bought another 600K ounces in the month of November.



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RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 19th December 2014



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Nigeria, Belarus Halt All FX Trading As Central Bank Urges "Don't Panic"

Just because Russia has managed to stabilize its currency, that certainly does not mean the soaring dollar tantrum-cum-crude crash episode is anywhere near over, nor that stability has returned to the rest of the oil-exporting countries. Case in point, crude-exporting powerhouse Nigeria, where things are going from worse to #REF! Bid and ask prices for the naira were quoted from 162 to 190 per dollar with only 16 trades by 1 p.m. in Lagos [yesterday], compared with more than 170 by the same time yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The naira fell 12 percent against the dollar this quarter, the worst among 24 African currencies tracked by Bloomberg after Malawi’s kwacha. Investors dropped Nigerian assets as the outlook for Africa’s biggest oil producer worsened with Brent crude prices almost halving since late June. “The banks can’t stop trading because of the circular,” the Deputy Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Sarah Alade said. “It is not supposed to close the market. We have told them we’ll continue intervening in the market, so there is no need to panic.



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