What To Expect When You're Expecting The FOMC

As we await today’s FOMC decision, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow has been struck curious by how many people are speculating that the accompanying statement might lurch back hawkish. For a Fed that has had such notable lack of success seeing clarity in its crystal ball, that would be remarkably aggressive.

Detonation Reported Near Refugee Center in Zirndorf, Germany

According to German media Bayerischer Rundfunk, moments ago an explosion took place in the town of Zirndorf near the northern Bavarian city of Nurenberg. Bayerischer Rundfunk adds reporting that a suitcase filled with various cans exploded about 200 meters away from the local refugee center.

Oil Crashes To $41 Handle After Surprise Inventory Build, Production Rise

Despite last night's API-reported surge in Cushing inventories, oil futures surged into this morning's DOE data on the heels of terrible durable goods data. However, a shocking build in overall crude levels (+1.67mm vs -2mm) breaking crude's record 9-week streak of draws, sent crude prices reeling to a $41 handle (the lowest since April's Doha production free talks failed). Cushing also saw a major build as did Gasoline and production rose for the 3rd week in a row.

Pending Home Sales Disappoint, Realtors Fear Unhealthy Price Appreciation

Following New Home Sales rebound to their highest since 2008, amid record high prices, Pending Home Sales disappointed with a mere 0.2% MoM rise (versus +1.2% expectations) showing very little bounce off May's tumble. Northeast sales saved the day with a 3.2% surge but The South and West both continued to slide. As NAR's Larry Yun noted however: "home prices are showing little evidence of slowing to a healthier pace that more closely mirrors wage and income growth."

Chinese Stocks Sink Over Fears Regulators Will Curb Wealth Management Schemes

Overnight China's Banking Regulatory Commission drafted new rules curbing the nation’s multi-trillion market for wealth management products, which was not taken well by the local stock market, leading to a plunge in stocks in early Chinese trading, before rebounding at the close of trading. China's ChiNext index of smaller companies sank as much as 5.5%.

Silver Surges Over $20 After Dismal Durable Goods Data

After 21 straight days of economic imporvements, today's dismal durable goods orders appears enough to prompt 'the QE trade' as bonds, stocks, and bullion surge (and dollar drops). Silver just spiked to $20...

What Wall Street Thinks Of Apple's Earnings Beat

After beating on revenues and earnings despite a steep drop in both revenues and iPhone orders and projecting a third consecutive quarter of declining profits, Apple is up nearly 8% pre-market as traders clearly liked what Tim Cook did in the quarter. More importantly, Wall Street liked the results too. Here is a summary of what some of the key analysts thought.

Durable Goods Orders Crash Most In 2 Years - Longest Non-Recessionary Streak Of Declines In US History

Despite the longest winning streak for US macro data in US history, Durable Goods Orders collapsed in June. The 4% MoM plunge (vs -1.4% exp) is the biggest drop since Aug 2014. This represents a 6.6% YoY crash - the biggest drop since July 2015. The drop appears driven by  plunge in airplane orders (non-defense aircraft and parts). Worse still, core durable goods orders extended their annual declines to 18 months straight - the longest non-recessionary streak of declines in US history.

Dan Loeb Compares Managing Money In 2016 To A "Game Of Thrones" Slaughter

"Watching Jon Snow’s epic “Battle of the Bastards” scene in the penultimate episode of this season’s Game of Thrones gives investors a sense of how it has felt to manage money during some periods over the past year. Surging enemies forming a seemingly  impossible perimeter, a crush of fellow soldiers on the field, arrows coming in overhead..."

Frontrunning: July 27

  • Democrat Clinton makes history with U.S. presidential nomination (Reuters)
  • Democrats Achieve an Uneasy Détente at Convention (WSJ)
  • Obama Economy Left Behind the Backers That Clinton Needs to Win (BBG)
  • European stocks rise, Asia lifted by Japan stimulus (Reuters)
  • PM Abe's plan for $265 billion stimulus puts pressure on BOJ to ease (Reuters)

Global Stocks, Futures Continue Rise On Apple, Japan Stimulus; Yellen On Deck

The markets were following a rollercoaster night for the Japanese Yen, when after several media headlines Abe was said to have announced a stimulus package that would be more than JPY28 trillion, sending Japanese stocks higher 1.7% while the USDJPY spiked but well off overnight highs, pushing risk assets higher. Europe and US futs were also in the green on optimism from AAPL's earnings, but all eyes will be on today's FOMC announcement.