Having detailed yesterday the manipulation in the precious metals markets that implies the bear market in bullion is an artificial creation, we thought the following 'rational' chart effort at 'valuing' gold may provide some frame of reference for the level of riggedness occurring...
When people think about Social Security, they think that all the problems are decades away. Wrong. The Disability Insurance (DI) fund reserves are expected to be depleted by next year. The other trust fund, OAS, is projected to “become depleted and unable to pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis in 2034.” Which means that if you’re 47 or younger, you can kiss Social Security goodbye. Not to worry, though. Congress is on the case... the only problem with their solution - it's fraud!
If Greece does find it has a legal basis to criminally charge Varoufakis with treason merely for preparing for a Plan B, then it brings up an interesting question: if Varoufakis was a criminal merely for preparing for existing the Euro, then comparable treason charges should also be lobbed against none other than Varoufakis' nemesis - Eurogroup president and Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem.
China Rescue, VIX Crash, & Fed Pump Squeeze Shorts Most In 6 Months, Trannies Bounce Most Since 2011Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/29/2015 - 16:45
Moments ago, Facebook reported Q2 earnings and just like Twitter, it beat across all key financial metrics. So all should be well, and FB stock should be soaring. Alas for FB longs it isn't and at last check the stock was down by $5 or about 5% after hours, because algos were focused on one particular user growth metric: Daily active users (DAUs) - DAUs were 968 million on average for June 2015, an increase of 17% year-over-year. This number was a fraction less than the 970.5 million consensus estimate, and because it brought up nightmare visions of what happened to Twitter stock overnight, which since earnings has plunged to near all time lows, is forcing traders to sell or short, if only now, and ask questions later.
Finally, an economic growth strategy...
Authorities pushing currency devaluation as a cure for their stagnating economies might want to study Frederic Bastiat's insight into the eventual cost and consequences: "For it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa.”
"It Depends On What The Meaning Of The Word "Some" Is": Goldman Says Don'tt Read Too Much Into Fed StatementSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/29/2015 - 15:17
When even Jon Hilsenrath is clueless what the Fed is trying to say, we go with old faithful, the company that runs the NY Fed, Goldman Sachs. Here is Jan Hatzius' take. "The statement following today's FOMC meeting made relatively few changes compared to June, and did not affect our view that the first rate hike is most likely to occur in December. The most notable change was the addition of the word "some" in the committee's description of desired progress in the labor market."
Given the irrefutable historical testimony of the disasters which ensue once a construction boom takes full root – and also given both the empirical and Austrian-theoretic conclusion that this is one of the most interest rate sensitive sectors in the economy – can we please act now, before it is too late, Janet?
We assume this means the 'market' will break before the close unless we make new highs...
"The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates near zero but cited progress in the U.S. job market, a sign it remains on course to raise interest rates in September or later this year. At the same time, however, it flagged a nagging concern about low inflation, which is creating caution among officials and could convince them to delay the day of the first increase."
With no press conference, expectations were muted going in (aside from the ubiquitous VIX-dip, equity market rip that happens at every FOMC meeting) but seemed to hint at delaying a September/December liftoff is on the cards - needing more job improvement...
- *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, JOB GAINS `SOLID'
- *FED REPEATS RISKS TO ECONOMY, JOB OUTLOOKS `NEARLY BALANCED'
- *FED: RATE TO RISE AFTER `SOME FURTHER' JOB MARKET IMPROVEMENT
And so the confusion continues... the jobs market is telling the Fed one thing, while inflation (held down by a lackluster Chinese demand which has in turn exacerbated a global deflationary supply glut) is saying something different, and remember 25bps doesn't matter (just like subprime was "contained"). Full redline below.
Pre-Fed: S&P Futs 2096.00, 10Y 2.2880%, Gold $1095, EURUSD 1.1050, VIX 12.92
Gazing from the windows of the International Space Station with your economic eyeglasses on, earth is now a pool of festering asset bubbles ready to burst with The FOMC not about to ruin that party anytime soon. Not to be left out, astronaut Terry Virts created his very own effervescence as bubbles have now reached space...
Global oil prices have returned to a state of flux. This is hardly news to any who follow the oil markets closely and yet prices continue to drive international headlines. While oil prices are notoriously difficult to predict, it has failed to deter the speculators. There are those warning that the latest dip is a precursor for $40 a barrel, a catastrophe for oil markets in some minds. On the other end of the spectrum are the optimists betting on a return to $100 by 2020. The World Bank has taken a typically middle-of-the-road approach, with forecasts of $57 a barrel in 2015. That said, given Iran’s potential revitalization, Russia’s murky outlook, and U.S. shale supply limits uncertain, prices will be responsive to supply and demand trends; at least in the short to medium term.
If yesterday's 3 Year auction was far stronger than expected, then today's 5 Year auction was an absolute whopper, printing moments ago at a high yield of 1.625%, 0.5bps through the When Issued, but it was the internals that were most impressive, not so much the Bid to Cover which jumped from 2.39 to 2.58, the highest since November, but the real stunner just like in yesterday 3Y auction, was the central bank, aka Indirect, interest because while the foreign central bank bid in yesterday's 3 Year auction were the highest since 2009, today's 67.5% Indirect takedown was the strongest on record!