But it was a "great" jobs report, right?
In the USA, that economy has bled out like a hapless bystander with a sucking chest wound for the last eight years. Despite all the patriotic sanctimony on view at the Superbowl, the nation appears to be visibly cracking up, along with the fantasy of a permanent global economy. None of the desperate work-arounds since 2008 have worked around the predicaments of our time.
"Albert Edwards sees the possibility of a 75% decline from the peak if all his fears were to manifest themselves. Now many view this as an incredible and somewhat outlandish forecast, yet it is not that unreasonable in our view.... These types of declines would leave indices down rough 60-65% from peak, and would send leverage ratios skyrocketing."
We're gonna need more "whatever it takes"...
The utility sector has broken out of a well defined downtrend on a relative basis versus the S&P 500... And based on past occurrences when we have witnessed relative breakouts of some variation (e.g., 2000, 2007), this is not necessarily a positive development for stocks overall.
BTFD? Deutsche Bank stock crashed over 11% today (the most since July 2009) to its lowest since January 2009 record lows. We have detailed at length why this is a major systemic problem and we wonder how anyone can view this chart and not question their full faith in central planners engineering of the 'recovery'. Nothing is fixed and it's starting to become very obvious!
USDJPY has tested down to 115.00 this morning as the blowback from Kuroda's "Peter Pan" policy move into NIRP continues to ripple through the world's largest carry trade. Most troubling is last week's jawboning of "no limits" made the situation worse as desperation was clear, erasing all of USDJPY's gains since it unleashed QQE2 after The Fed ended QE3.
Wall Street's Biggest Permabull Slashes US Growth Outlook (Again), Says No Chance Of March Rate HikeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 - 11:15
There are two ways to look at this. On the one hand, you might be inclined to think it's especially bad news when the Street's permabulls turn bearish. On the other hand, this is a man who once lost a forecasting contest to a groundhog, so perhaps a rip-roaring economic recovery is just around the corner.
US Treasury yields are collapsing across the entire curve, down 9-10bps from their pre-opening highs this morning. While 10Y pushed belwo 1.80% (to one-year lows), it is 5Y yields that have traders the most anxious as record speculative short positions get crucified, breaking below three-year channel lows...
The rise in rents and home prices is adding additional pressure to the bottom line of most California families. In most of the US buying a home may make some sense. In California, the massive drop in the homeownership rate shows a different story. And that story is the middle class is disappearing...
"it seems reasonable to judge that the Fed’s current political situation is more parlous than is the case among its overseas counterparts. For all of the above reasons, we believe the hurdle for NIRP in the US is quite high, and we would need to see recession-like conditions before the Fed seriously considered this option."
And you thought Greece was "fixed"...
The political class has completely disrupted the American structure of production, made American workers uncompetitive, snuffed the life out of entrepreneurs, and burdened the entire nation with a debt obligation the size of Jupiter. The US economy is not the strongest and most durable in the world — it is an unskilled thirty-two-year-old waiter crashing at his parent’s place and trying to pay down an $80,000 international relations degree.
The bid for precious metals is accelerating. Gold just broke above its October 2015 highs to 8-month highs. Silver is also bursting higher, soaring above its 200-day moving-average.