What Trump's Venezuela Sanctions Will Do To Oil Prices: Barclays Explains

"A sharper and longer disruption could raise oil prices at least $5-7/b and flatten the curve structure despite an assumed return of some OPEC supply, a more robust US shale response, and weaker demand. It may be just the opportunity OPEC needs to exit its current strategy." - Barclays

22 Troublesome Facts

Below are 22 troublesome facts explaining why the herd may, in fact, have it wrong.

North Korea ICBM Launch Expected "As Soon As Tonight"

According to Fox News, another North Korean ICBM launch is expected as soon as tonight. Each additional test highlights that Trump's current strategy of containing Kim appears to not be working, as the North Korean continues to defy the US and China’s demands to stop.

WTI Pops'n'Drops As Inventory Draws Battle Surging Production

WTI prices kneejerked higher after last night's yuge crude inventory draw reported by API but prices have leaked lower into the DOE print. Expectations were for a 4th straight weekly draw in crude (thanks to robust refining activity) were confirmed with a 7.2mm inventory drop (less than API's 10.2mm), and Gasoline also saw a major draw (as opposed to API's build). However, exuberance in WTI is not evident as Lower 48 production surge above 9mm barrels for the first time since July 2015.

Beware The Ides Of October...

"We are are waiting for Mr. October to step up and knock the risk markets for a loop, however, resulting in a nice fall correction (pun intended).  We believe many factors will be converging  by then, including..."

EU Gives Poland One Month Ultimatum, Threatens With "Article 7 Procedure"

The European Commission escalated the diplomatic row between Brussels and Warsaw when it announced that the EU was launching legal infringement proceedings and giving Warsaw a one month ultimatum over one of the recently passed reforms to Poland's court system, threatening that the country's voting rights could be suspended

Five Years Ago Today...

“The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”

Frontrunning: July 26

  • Oil bounce, results keep stocks on high (Reuters)
  • Healthcare brawl returns to Senate floor (Reuters); Senate Sets Up Health Votes for Chaotic Obamacare Debate (BBG); Health Debate Rolls On After First Option Fails (WSJ)
  • Who Will Blink First in the Sessions Standoff? (BBG)
  • Iran Says ‘Hostile’ U.S. Sanctions Vote Undermines Nuclear Deal (BBG)
  • Russia Warns of ‘Painful’ Response If Trump Backs U.S. Sanctions (BBG)

Global Stocks Jump, Crude Booms As Yellen Looms

S&P futures were fractionally higher (+0.1% to 2,476) with all eyes on the Fed's rate decision as investors await another earnings deluge from companies including Facebook, Coca-Cola and Boeing. Asian and European shares were also higher, the Dollar rebound continued while oil rose above $48 as copper hit a two year high.