Rumors are rife that Burton Malkiel is preparing a sequel to his previous blockbuster that will be titled "A Random Straight Line On Wall Street." Because, simply put, random walks are so pre-central-planning...
Following Russia's closure on several McDonalds in Moscow, the CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce is worried: "The question on my mind is: Is this going to be a knock on the door, or is this going to be the beginning of a campaign?" As Reuters reports, businessmen from both West and East are increasingly frustrated with the tit-for-tat sanctions (and their apparent lack of efficacy at anything but slowing global growth). Russian and Ukrainian CEOs joined Richard Branson to write "We, as business leaders from Russia, Ukraine and the rest of the world, urge our governments to work together to ensure we do not regress into the Cold War misery of the past." As we noted previously, Europe has suffered most, and the following European companies remain the most exposed to escalation.
In addition to the countless other reason already presented here over the past year why the bond market simply refuses to sell (scarcity of "high quality collateral", shadow banking lubrication, fears over a slowing economy, reverse rotation by pension funds from stocks into bonds, etc), here is one more reason: today the spread between the 30 Year Bund and the 30 Year Treasury just hit a record wide.
Was it ever in doubt? Bad news is great news for China and Europe and good new is great news for US because no matter what Yellen will go full dovetard tomorrow - at least that appears to be the total consensus view as the S&P hit record highs and bond yields plunge. Volume went from dismal to well dismal-er (we've run out of adjectives) to the lowest non-holiday of the year as we note Trannies (-0.25%) and Nasdaq lagged today. Credit markets snapped higher (tighter) today but remain less exuberant than stocks on the week. Gold staggered lower (-2% on the week) back under $1280 even as The USD rolled over notably on the day led by EUR strength. Treasuries rallied (30Y -3bps and 10Y <2.40%) in the face of equity strength. VIX flash-smashed early on from 11.5 to over 13 (cracking stocks lower) but that was a great buying opportunity into J-Hole...
Despite caution from Bob Shiller that stocks are "hovering at worrisome levels," the FOMC Minutes yesterday (and various Fed speakers and talking heads this morning) have reassured the investing public that stocks are "cheap" and it's credit and bonds that are rich and bubbly. However, as the following simple table from Bloomberg Briefs shows, concerns over "frothy" valuations is warranted - especially in light of P/Es above previous bubble peak levels.
Amid his corruption indictments, Texas Governor Rick Perry is making more headlines today. During a CNN interview, Perry exclaimed "it's possible ISIS may have crossed into The United States from Mexico." Speaking earlier at The Heritage Foundation, Perry blasted, "they need to be eliminated, and they need to be eliminated now."
"Isolation Procedures Put In Place" After Ebola Suspect Dies In Ireland; Ebola-Like Disease Claims 70 In CongoSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/21/2014 - 15:03
Last week Ireland rushed to deny that a man with Ebola-like symptoms who was being tested in Dublin, did not have the disease. It may find such a refutation more difficult this time after Irish Times reported that a man was found dead last night in Donegal, after working in Sierra Leone, the epicenter of the current Ebola outbreak, and where "it is understood that a number of colleagues had contracted the virus." The deceased was taken to Letterkenny General Hospital where the HSE is carrying out tests to see whether the death resulted from Ebola.
Assuming Missouri Governor Jay Nixon doesn't believe that last night's massive storms were the cause of a quieter night in Ferguson, he has decided to withdraw The National Guard from the scene of Mike Brown's death. It is unclear whether he realizes the error of his ways in this heavy-handed response or got a tap on the shoulder from The White House. Either way, we leave it to none other than AG Eric Holder to conclude - “History simmers beneath the surface in more communities than just Ferguson,” -in other words, this is far from over...
Since President Kirchner unleashed her 'cramdown' plan for Argentinian debt, the Peso has collapsed at the fastest pace since January's devaluation. The 'official' Peso prices has collapsed 1.3% in the last 2 day to 8.39 per USD - and Argentina's debt yields have surged (prices tumbled) but the black-market Blue-Dolar price has exploded to an all-time low at 13.8 per USD, implying massive devaluation is coming.
Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole "Gobbledygook": Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely HawkishSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/21/2014 - 13:55
Ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole speech tomorrow, the sell-side, hypnotized by 6 years of Fed bubble-inflating generosity, refuses to even consider the possibility that the Fed could possibly pull the punch bowl away, and the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove. So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".
After years of evading the tentacles of the US government, yesterday the crosshairs of American justice (the civil, not criminal variety) which may be blindfolded but certainly has an offshore bank account, finally locked onto the orange man who made over half a billion between 1999 to 2008, according to compensation-research firm Equilar, not to mention saddling Bank of America with the worst Easter egg M&A transaction in history. Well, it turns out the US government may not be able to sue the Moz after all. The reason? He is sick.
Given that this is 'officially' the worst-recovery-ever, one wonders why does the abysmally failed and dangerous monetary experimentation continue unabated — as Yellen will undoubtedly confirm at Jackson Hole? Self-evidently, it is irresistibly convenient to both Wall Street and Washington. Yet these screaming juxtapositions are lost in the recency bias of the mainstream narrative. Invariably, the “in-coming” data is tortured and rationalized to prove that just a few more doses of money and debt will do the trick. Consequently, the pattern and signal is obscured amidst the immediate noise. It is therefore perhaps useful to consider a more advanced case of this Keynesian debauch from elsewhere in the world. Consider Italy.
Remember all those allegations that Obamacare would be an unmitigated disaster for businesses, especially smaller companies? Well, now we have proof.