It appears the FX and Precious Metals markets have as much faith in the pre-Swiss Gold Referendum polls as the Scots did before their referendum. The clearly leaked results sparked considerable weakness in gold and silver (and EURCHF surge), but once the data was released, markets began to creep back - perhaps questioning the plausibility of such a big swing in such a short amount of time. This surge was also helped by some unusually frank comments on Russian gold buying from the Russian Central Bank. Gold, Silver, and EURCHF have all recovered the moves with the latter pressing towads cycle lows...
Trader's Magazine reports that "as part of KCG's continued push into the institutional trading side of the business"... which is a euphemism for please trade with us: we won't blow up again, we promise... "the well-regarded and historically focused market-maker [ZH: if you keep repeating that it magically comes true, just ask world-renowned trader Dennis Gartman] has built its first brand new algorithmic trading tool - Catch." What does the algo known as Catch do? Well, supposedly it offsets the impact of all other algos who have crushed market liquidity.
This past month, a real-life guild of thieves was formed. With 51 governments pledging their support to each other for the protection of their ignoble craft of theft. And another 30 pledging to join by 2018.
While what normally happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas; President Obama's decision to dictate his Immigration Executive Order from sin city will likely have repurcussions across the entire nation. As NY Times reports, Obama is preparing to use his executive authority to provide work permits for up to five million people who are in the US illegally, and to shield them from deportation. But these new arrivals will not receive one key benefit: government subsidies for health care available under Obamacare. The immigrants would also be unlikely to receive benefits like food stamps, Medicaid coverage or other need-based federal programs offered to citizens and to some legal residents. "The costs of extending these programs to millions of low-wage illegal immigrants would be enormous," said Senator Jeff Sessions "this is yet another danger posed to Americans by the president’s unconstitutional action."
Because nothing says unrigged like a collapse across the commodity complex (gold, silver, copper, and crude) as London's Gold Fixing Company auction takes place... Or did the Fed leak its minutes like it did in 2013? It appears the real reason is the early release of Swiss Gold Referendum poll data that shows a drop from 44% "Yes" to 38% "Yes".
In case you are wondering through Ukraine and come across a tank, the British embassy in Kiev has issued a handy pocket guide to indentifying whether it is Russian (bad guys) or Ukrainian (good guys)...
For 'years' the US stock market has traded on 'fun-durr-mentals' - tracking USDJPY tick for tick day in day out as algos tickle leveraged currency trades to ignote momentum in US equities and guarantee 'proof' in the recovery. The correlation, however, between USDJPY and stocks (US and Japanese) has begun to deteriorate rapidly since Kuroda unleased Godzilla QQE... and today it is very clear...
While the impact of the student loan bubble on the labor participation rate has been extensively covered in the past, there is a just as important question of just what these "students" spend their money on. Among the items revealed: "A U.S. Middle District Court indictment alleges that Price spent much of the loan money on crack cocaine, cars, motorcycles, jewelry, tattoos and video games." And iPhones of course, because someone has to indirectly provide US subsidies to the NSA's favorite company. Now we know one more thing that America's young adults, of whom some 24% expect that their debt will ultimately be forgiven, are blowing Uncle Sam's debt on. The answer: high-school level classes.
If one were to look up the definition of hypocrisy, the image of BoJ head Kuroda should be front-and-center. Having tripled-down on his money-printing and ETF-buying largesse just last week, he came out swinging last night at the government's fiscal irresponsibility blasting Abe's policies by saying Japan's fiscal health "is the responsibility of parliament and the government, not an issue for the central bank to be held responsible for." Aside from the fact that he is directly monetizing all JGB issuance - thus enabling Abe's arrogant fiscal stimulus plan (by issuing 30Y and 40Y debt), Bloomberg notes that "Kuroda is making it crystal clear the government has to tackle the debt problem and if fiscal trust is lost that’s not going to be on the BOJ." The world has truly gone mad.
It is generally conceded that we are living in an era of Peak Everything: peak central bank omnipotence, peak powerless of the non-elites, peak wealth inequality, peak media-induced delusion, peak market-rigging, peak bogus official statistics, peak propaganda, peak bread and circuses, peak deception, peak distraction, peak sociopathology, peak central statism, peak debt, peak leverage, peak derealization--need we go on? Peaks generate bubbles. Bubbles reach extremes and then they pop. What do we do when the bubble economy cannot be reflated?
With surging homebuilder sentiment, we suspect the disappointing plunge in Housing Starts (-2.8% vs +0.8% exp) will surprise a few but there is hope... as Building Permits rose 4.8% (vs 0.9% expectations) on the back of an 8% surge in multi-family / rental units. This is the highest level fo Permits since June 2008 (but still over 50% below peak permits levels in 2005). The only region with any increase in starts was the South.
With growth rates for steel products at or near record lows and prices for end-product having plunged to record lows, it is little surprise that the Steel industry would provide the largest Chinese bankruptcy yet in this cycle. As Bloomberg reports, unlisted Haixin Iron & Steel - which halted production and defaulted on CNY3 bn in March - has started bankruptcy proceedings. Having spent 8 months hoping for the government bailout that every Western onlooker believes is every firm's god-given right, a reorganization application for the Wenxi, Shanxi province-based company (with $1.7 billion of total debt) was accepted by the Yuncheng City Intermediate People’s Court. This is just the start as "Haixin Group’s bankruptcy will be followed by others," warns one analyst, adding that the major flaw of producers of iron ore, the most traded commodity after oil, is they tend to be “over-bullish.”
- Yellen Inherits Greenspan’s Conundrum as Long Rates Sink (BBG)
- West African Mining Projects Take Hit From Ebola Crisis (WSJ)
- Saudi oil policy uncertainty unleashes the conspiracy theorists (Reuters)
- Senate Rejection of Keystone XL Measure Sets Up 2015 Showdown (BBG)
- Ferguson, Missouri, remains on edge ahead of grand jury report (Reuters)
- Putin Said to Stun Advisers by Backing Corruption Crackdown (BBG)
- Italian ‘Invasion’ Has Swiss Fuming as Immigration Vote Looms (BBG)
- Apple and Others Encrypt Phones, Fueling Government Standoff (WSJ)
Once again all eyes are on the carry-trade driving Yen, whose avalance into oblivion is picking up speed, and where the formerly unimaginable USDJPY level of 120 as presented here in September, is now looking like this week's business, with the only question how long until Albert Edwards' next target of 145 is hit leading to nuclear currency warfare between Japan, Korea, China and ultimately, the US and Europe. Unfortunately, for Japan, at this point the terminal currency collapse will do nothing to incrementally boost exports or its economy, and the former Japan finmin was on the tape warning again that the Japanese recession will persist as USDJPY over 115 is now hurting Japan, something which should by now have been clear to most.
"Attached is the ACA notification of next year's price increase. As you can see the cost goes from $281 to $555, a monthly increase of $274, a percentage increase of 97%. Basically we are now paying the same amount for the two of us that we paid for all four of us one year ago. How can that increase occur in a "free market" economy? Did I miss something? Has some input cost leaped exponentially in order to double the price I pay? Or has private industry colluded with government to rig the markets (again) in their favor?"