Don't Count Yer Clintons Yet - It Ain't Over Till It's Over

What America has in Hillary Clinton is a potential president with the charisma but not the competence of Angela Merkel, and the ethics of Dilma Rousseff. Yet, still, on the mega-issue, America’s desire for change, and on specific issues, Trump holds something close to a full house. The coming economic news — we had 1 percent growth in the first half of 2016 — could cause a second look at Trumponomics. And whoever is out there strategically dropping Democratic emails may be readying an October surprise for Hillary Clinton, a massive document dump that buries her.

These Are The Top 50 Hedge Fund Long And Short Positions

"Even with the recent rally in the most popular long positions, the average hedge fund has returned just 3% YTD, lagging the S&P 500 for the eighth year in a row. Many active managers continue to struggle in 2016, with the average hedge fund (+3%) and large-cap core mutual fund (+7%) lagging the S&P 500. Among hedge fund styles, although most have posted similar returns, event-driven funds have fared best (+5%) while equity long/short funds trail (+2%)."

Toward Stagflation - The Real End Game For Central Banks

Norway is heading straight into stagflation and at some point Norges Bank will be forced to tighten monetary policy into a weakening economy. The world should take note, because the real end game for central banks will come when they are constrained by rising inflation in a weakening economy. We all know what happened after the 1970s stagflation; and hiking rates to 20 per cent in an overleveraged world is a lot harder than it was back then.

Ryan Lochte Issues "Apology For His Behavior"

"I want to apologize for my behavior last weekend -- for not being more careful and candid in how I described the events of that early morning...  It's traumatic to be out late with your friends in a foreign country - with a language barrier - and have a stranger point a gun at you and demand money to let you leave."

Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort Resigns

“This morning Paul Manafort offered, and I accepted, his resignation from the campaign,” Trump said in a statement e-mailed by his campaign. “I am very appreciative for his great work in helping to get us where we are today, and in particular his work guiding us through the delegate and convention process. Paul is a true professional and I wish him the greatest success.”

Oil Prices Continue To Rise On Hollow Saudi Comments

This is just the latest confirmation that Saudi Arabia has taken center stage when it comes to oil. Nobody cares anymore about fundamentals, everyone listens to what Riyadh says. If Riyadh is bullish on oil, then oil prices rise, despite any production data that might contradict their words. If Riyadh decides for some reason to be bearish, the market follows. The extent of this dependency of traders on every word that comes out of Khalid al-Falih’s mouth (and other Saudi officials) becomes all the more evident in light of the latest production forecasts for Saudi Arabia.

Cable Tumbles After British PM Confirms Article 50 Trigger By April 2017

Just when the world thought Theresa May would let that whole 'Brexit' thing slide, hoping everyone would forget about, the new British PM has confirmed that "article 50" - the legal execution of Brexit - will most likely be triggered by April 2017 (wanting to get this done before the crucial French and German elections). Cable is sliding notably on the news...

Where The Money Is Going: Record Inflows Into Emerging Markets, Longest Ever Outflows From Europe

One week ago we showed a stunning chart showing the panic among the investing public to allocate funds to emerging markets. There has been no change this week, with investors plowing money into emerging market equity funds at a staggering rate, hitting a 58-week high as "financial repression" and record low interest rates push the search for yield to truly unprecedented levels.

Secret Fed Minutes "Revealed"

"Nothing terribly catastrophic has happened yet, so we have decided to continue screwing responsible savers with interest rates that are at 5,000 year lows so that this dangerous asset bubble can persist..."

Silver Slumps To 6-Week Lows, Gold Ratio Surges

Silver is slumping this morning, back below $19.50 at its lowest level in 6 weeks. Gold is fading also but remains coiled around the $1350 level for now. While both well above pre-Brexit levels, we note that the Gold-to-Silver ratio is recovering after slumping post-Brexit...

French Rabbi Stabbed By Muslim Assailant, Screaming "Allah Akbar"

In the latest knife attack in Europe, earlier this morning ago a Jewish man, described as a Rabbi, was stabbed by a Muslim attacker in the French city of Strasbourg, according to local media sources. He is has been taken to hospital and is in a stable condition, while the perpetrator has been arrested and is being questioned by police.

Frontrunning: August 19

  • European shares, oil ease as markets return to Fed-watching (Reuters)
  • Brent crude slides, but on track for third week of gains (Reuters)
  • Rio 2016: Lochte’s Teammates, USOC Join With Police in Discrediting Robbery Story (WSJ)
  • OPEC Freeze Wouldn’t Be So Potent as Gulf Rivals Pump More (BBG)
  • Hackers targeted Trump campaign, Republican Party groups (Reuters)

Global Stocks Drop, US Futures Down As Dollar Rebound Halts Longest Oil Rally In Years

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all fell in another quiet, low-volume early session. With oil entering a bull market yesterday, and set for its longest run of gains in 4 years after, overnight crude stumbled, and reversed early gains, falling for the first time in seven days driven by rebound in the dollar which gained versus all G-10 currencies with commodity currencies underperforming.