JPM's "Gandalf" Quant Is Back With A Startling Warning
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 17:10
"The fact that market volatility is on the rise and the Fed is raising interest rates further increases the probability of a Bear Market. The current option-implied probability of a bear market (i.e. ~20% decline this year) is about 25%. While there is no way to predict a bear market, below we look at various scenarios, and estimate that the probability of a bear market may be nearly twice as large."
Can We See A Bubble If We're Inside The Bubble?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:55
We want this time to be different so badly, we can almost taste it. But this time is only different on the margins; the flavor of the bust remains the taste of ashes.
US Vaporizes "Millions" In Cash, Kills 7 Civilians In "Unusual" Strike On ISIS "Bank"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:33
“The bulk cash distribution site was used by [ISIS] to distribute money to fund terrorist activities. We estimate in the millions of dollars ... from all their illicit stuff: oil, looting, extortion,”
Cramer Does It Again: Camera-On-A-Stick Crashes 30% After Slashing Guidance, Cuts 7% Of Jobs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:32
Who could have seen this coming? Week after the CEO ordered his mega-yacht and 6 months after Jim Cramer said "it was going higher," GoPro has just slashed Q4 revenue guidance by 15% (from $510.9mm to $435mm) and has addtionally decided to layoff 7% of the workforce. For now, GPRO is halted... but Ambarella is not (and is collapsing 6% after hours) leaving them down 65-80% since Cramer said "buy buy buy."
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Down 11.4% In First 12 Days Of 2016
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:26
Is This The Start: Regional Bank Tumbles After Admitting To Previously Underreserved Energy Loss
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 16:17
Earlier today BOK financial admitted that as a result of a major loan impairment on just one energy producer it would have to take a dramatic $22.5 million in credit losses, but that things are slowly going from great to not so great when it also admitted that "we continued to see credit grade migration and increased impairment in our energy portfolio. The combination of factors necessitated a higher level of provision expense."
The State Of What's Left Of The Nation
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 15:55
Nope and Mange...
Time To Pull Out The Nasdaq/China Comparison Chart Again
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 15:43
The similarities continue. Both saw an initial sharp 2-3 month fall from their peaks followed by a quarter or so of stability. The NASDAQ then started to fall sharply again and Chinese equities seem to have started a similar trend on a similar timeline....
Another Bubble Bursts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 15:25
Dear Janet, it appears the US consumer (or small business) is nothing like as strong as you "believed."
"You Lie" - Fact-Checking Obama's SOTU Job "Gains" Claims
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 15:25
President Barack Obama’s final State of the Union address came up short of the facts on several topics. Obama apparently omitted part of his presidency in boasting of nearly 900,000 manufacturing jobs “in the past six years.” Over his entire time in office, manufacturing jobs have gone down by 230,000.
42% of Americans Ditch Two-Party System, Say Government Is Biggest Problem
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 14:55
More people in the United States than ever are breaking away from the political duopoly by refusing to self-identify as either Democrat or Republican - and they now effectively comprise the true silent majority: Independents.
"The Rapes! The Riots!": Trump Blasts Merkel's Immigration Policy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 14:46
"Do you see what she's done to Germany? They have a problem. She went off the reservation. I don't know what happened to her. She was doing well."
For Amazon "Is It Different This Time?"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 14:39
We show the sources of return for AMZN stock, split between sales growth and multiple expansion. As the chart asks (and answers) the question longs should be asking themselves is whether it is "different this time?"
The Dow Is Now Down 1600 Points From New Year's Exuberant Highs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 14:35
Baumgartner'd...
Brent Follows WTI, Crashes Below $30 For First Time Since April 2004
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2016 - 14:27
Well that escalated quickly...
