It is unclear if Clinton will received $250,000 for today's speech in New York which is expected to outline Blackrock's the presidential candidate's new tax agenda (profiled previously), but it is assured that any questions relating to the just broken news that Clinton lied about not sending any confidential emails will be duly muted.
In May, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow, where Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei Miller and China National Petroleum Corp Vice President Wang Dongjin signed a gas export deal which paves the way for 30 bcm/y to China via a new "Western Route." Now, slumping Chinese demand (a pervasive problem at the heart of the global commodities downturn), threatens to undercut the agreement.
The Hillary scandal just got real. The commodity crash getting worse with every passing day. The BTFDers frozen in carbonite and even the biotechs are "wealth effecting." But at least the president is on top of it.
According to the FT, S&P 500 earnings are on track to decline by about 2.6% year-over-year which is actually about 2% better than what analysts were expecting at the end of June. So this is turning out to be a better earnings season than must expected? Not really. This is just a continuation of the game where consensus expectations are moved lower and lower until companies can, you guessed it, “surprise” to the upside. And its not just for this quarter that growth expectations are taken lower, this happens for growth expectations multiple years out.
Total US rig count increased a somewhat stunning 19 last week to 876 - the highest since May. This is the biggest rise in rig count since August 2014. The oil rig count surged 21 to 659 - this is the biggest weekly rise since April 2014. Louisiana (up 7) and Texas (up 8) saw the biggest increases.
About three quarters of Republican early-state insiders say they believe Donald Trump has peaked, but Politico reports, many acknowledge that may also be wishful thinking. Among New Hampshire Republican insiders, 73% say Trump has 'peaked', while, as Politico details, 81% of Hawkeye State Republicans said the same."I hope and pray that he has peaked," added another Granite State Republican,with a Democrat noting "if peaking is poll numbers, maybe, but this guy is far from done"
"Hillary Clinton will propose a revamp of capital-gains taxes that would hit some short-term investors with higher rates, part of a package of measures designed to prod companies to put more emphasis on long-term growth," WSJ reports. Interested to know who might be pulling the strings behind the scenes? Read on...
The crude collapse continues... and HY energy credit risk spikes above 950bps...
With all eyes currently transfixed on Iran’s nuclear future, there is seemingly little attention being paid to another landmark Middle Eastern nuclear trend, spearheaded by Russia.
As commodities carnage and credit cracks, talking heads remain intentionally ignorant in there sheep-like mantra to buy and hold stocks no matter what. Ever hopeful that 'growth' and the 'future' will fix any and all over-valuations, even with the current record low number of stocks trading 'cheap', they continues to ignore the facts. As Professor Bruce Greenwald recently told Goldman Sachs, "if a cyclical is trading expensively, it doesn't really matter how fast it is growing because historically growth hasn’t created value for cyclicals. Absent growth, value cyclicals don’t look like good investments."
Nowhere is this new "glamour" bubble more visible than in the divergence between these "sexy" names built up on nothing but hype, or as David Einhorn would call them "story" stocks, and good old "resource" companies: those engaging in such "old economy" activities as energy and materials.
We are seeing a kind of flight forward by investors – promises of future returns that may or may not eventuate continue to be highly rewarded – no price seems too high. This is actually a fairly typical bubble phenomenon. It is impossible to say for how long it will continue and how far it will go, but it is possible to say how it will end: in tears, especially for Johnny-come-lately investors.
Despite exuberant existing home sales, new home sales crosses back below the 500k Maginot Line to 482k SAAR - the lowest since Nov 2014. Previous data was revised notably lower as June data missed expectations by the most in a year. The West region saw new home sales collapse 17%. Perhaps the slide in single-family home starts means something after all?