“The risk of a US recession next year is rising fast” and “the Federal Reserve has no margin for error” according to Ambrose Evans Pritchard writing in the Telegraph. "AEP" is quite well connected and very well informed on such matters and hence the need to consider what he is saying and more importantly prepare.
The curious case of how a 34-year-old high-yield trader at Goldman managed to make $100mm in profits in just 6 months while somehow maintaining compliance with Dodd-Frank regulations...“It goes against everything we’ve been seeing the last three years."
Oil held gains overnight following API's surprise crude inventory draw, DOE data surprised even more with a massive 5.247mm draw (2.1mm build exp). Cushing saw the biggest draw in 6 months but we note that Gasoline inventories rose 2.469mm barrels - the biggest build since Feb. Production rose very modestly but hovers around the 8.5mm b/d level. WTI is spiking and RBOB lagging after the print.
Someone within the White House should probably explain why the vote-rigging, convicted felon, Robert Creamer visited the White House over 200 times during the Obama administration, including 45 visits with the President himself.
Two days before the Obama administration formally accused the Russian government of hacking Democrats, NYTimes reports that a man identified as a "Russian hacker suspected of pursuing targets in the United States" was arrested in the Czech Republic. While the arrest was made on Oct 5th, officials stated that "we postponed the announcement for tactical reasons," which makes one wonder whether this is the debate-day-distraction Hillary needs?
As Hillary's polling numbers remain inexplicably resilient in the face of numerous scandals, Trump has no choice to but lay it all on the line in tonight's debate in which we fully expect him to come out swinging from the start.
"In our retirement funds here at TGL we bought back into the same non-US steel manufacturing concern that we’d owned previously as it broke out to the upside... we are aggressively long of gold/EUR and we own a leveraged gold mining ETF. We have balanced those positions with bearish equity derivatives sufficient to leave us marginally… very marginally… net long of equities."
Over the weekend, thousands of protesters across multiple countries condemned impending trade deals promoted by governments and their corporate partners. Though the protests received little coverage from mainstream media, they stretched from Paris to Warsaw.
Following August's disappointing dump in Housing Starts (and Permits), September data is an utter disaster. Against expectations of a 2.9% rise, Housing Starts plunged 9.0% in September to 1.047mm - the weakest since March 2015. Year-over-year, Starts have crashed almost 12% - the most since April 2011, driven by a collapse in multi-family housing. Permits offered some hope for the future (although current starts suggests historical permits were a weak indicator).
In an act that some have said reeks of symbolism, the tour bus of the Clinton campaign was caught dumping human waste literally on the street, or as some less politically correct commentators have dubbed the incident, "the Hillary campaign caught shitting on main street America."
In a surprising reminder how the European central bank feels about bitcoin and other virtual money, the ECB urged EU lawmakers to tighten proposed new rules on digital currencies such as bitcoin, fearing they might one day weaken its own control over money supply in the euro zone.In other words, first the ECB went after cash; now it is going after all virtual currencies like bitcoin.
According to latest reports Saudi Arabia is now set to sell $17.5 billion in the biggest bond sale ever from an emerging-market nation, a number which may still rise thanks to what is a massive oversubscription: as of this moment the orderbook is said to be "around $67" billion, or roughly 4 times oversubscribed, courtesy of the global financial repression imposed by central banks, forcing investors into the smallest trace of yield.
US futures were little changed, with European shares lower, and Asian stocks higher as caution returned after last night's Chinese economic data did little to clear up how the world's second largest economy is performing, and provided few positives for investors ahead of the third and final U.S. presidential debate; imminent announcements from both the ECB and the Fed also will keep traders on their toes today.
While expectations are low from Thursday's ECB meeting, it may ultimately boil down to Draghi’s communication about asset purchases. Any hint of QE tapering would spur a large-scale sell-off in the rates market, according to most Wall Street strategists. Here is what else the sellside thinks will happen.
Moments ago, sterling reverted to its familiar downward sliding trajectory and took a steep move lower following a Bloomberg report that German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is "battening down the hatches for coming Brexit talks, instructing officials to avoid any back-door contacts that could hand the U.K. an advantage", citing people familiar with the discussions.
Will we ever learn?Bonds which never pay back principal, yield only 1%, and are converted to equity if the issuer gets into trouble (that is, at exactly the time when you don’t want to own their stock), are being enthusiastically snapped up by Japanese investors.
When Sheriff David Clarke declared it's "pitchforks and torches time," he may have been on to something. With a record low 19% of Americans trusting the government and belief in the media collapsing, it appears "we, the people" have faith in only one group... the military.