What if Berlin and Frankfurt do not budge? What if they tell Athens to ‘go jump of the tallest cliff’? I have good cause to hope that Berlin will prefer to accommodate the Greek government and to look with a great deal more ‘kindness’ the ‘request’ for a debt relief conference. And if it does not, and wishes to bring the Eurozone down with it, let it do its worst, I say.
Surprise! The Eurogroup conference call has ended and there's no deal in sight until after the referendum.
*KAZIMIR SAYS NO GREECE TALKS UNTIL AFTER REFERENDUM
Small Caps are leading the way...
This wasn't supposed to happen...
The world saw a potential Y2K-moment overnight and just as in 2000, the world did not end. An extra leap second was added, potentially blowing up every computer in the world... but as the following chart shows, for the algos, it was just a buying (and selling) opportunity.
"Today is Day 1 of Year 7 of the 'recovery', and yet economists everywhere proclaims 3% growth is just around the corner," rages Jim Bianco as he addresses what 'bugs him', exclaiming "that ship has sailed." Bianco and Santelli go on to slay Keynesian big government dragons and the incessant bullshit from officials like Jack Lew who opine on Greece and other potential systemic risks as being a non-event - "what is priced in is that everything will work itself out at the 11th hour," leaving a huge asymmetric risk. Well worth the price of admission...
"There is certainly an unusual feeling of calm in the air. Citizens seem a bit more polite and helpful to one another than before, with no shortage of clever comments to break the tension on everyone’s mind being all in the same boat. My first thought was to assume a newfound “keep calm and soldier on” state of unity among the populace. But this is Greece, not Northern Europe. the words “quiet” and “calm” never share a sentence here. No, this was something different, I believe, more of a “laugh to keep from crying” state of mind. And being very experienced with Greece and Greek culture for my entire life, this realization was off-putting to say the least."
Crude Slumps To $57 Handle As DOE Confirms Surprise Inventory Build, Production Hovers Near Record HighsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2015 - 10:37
Confirming last night's surprise API inventory build data, after 8 weeks of inventory draws, DOE reports crude oil inventories rose 2.386 million barrels. Overall production dropped a miniscule 0.09% last week but basically production remains at cycle record highs. Crude prices are dropping on the news... testing to a $57 handle.
TSIPRAS CALLS FOR `NO' VOTE IN JULY 5 REFERENDUM
GREECE RECEIVED BETTER PROPOSALS FOR DEBT AFTER REFERENDUM CALL
Government source. Not blinking. Will continue with referendum. #Greece - Tsipras to speak in a few minutes
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) July 1, 2015
Following Construction Spending's exuberant 2.2% MoM surge in April (revised to 2.1), May saw a fall-back-to-earth 0.8% gain (still better than expected). However, while Markit's Manufacturing survey tumbled, ISM's rose in May and now in June picked up again to 53.5 - its highest since January. Employment rose notably but New orders were only marginally higher and Production slowed. Rather stunningly, all the improvment in ISM is seasonal adjustments with the non-seasonally-adjusted data at its lowest since January. The question remains, is this good news enough to warrant a September rate cut - if we ignore everything else that is weak?
"Strong Fundamentals" Meme Destroyed As US Manufacturing PMI Slows To Its Weakest Since October 2013Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2015 - 09:54
US Manufacturing PMI's final print for June at 53.6 (slightly above its preliminary 53.4 print) is its lowest since October 2013. The survey has fallen almost non-stop since the end of QE3. Under the covers, data was mixed, softer output growth was offset by a slight pick-up in the pace of new business gains and job creation, but Manufacturers indicated a slowdown in production growth for the third month running during June. As Markit's echief economist notes, “Policymakers will be concerned about the unbalanced nature of growth, and in particular the loss of export and investment drivers, and will want to see growth pick up again in coming months before committing to higher interest rates.”
As we await Tsipras' response to reports which indicate he is set to concede to creditors' proposals in exchange for a deal that rescues his country from the brink of economic oblivion, Barclays and Bloomberg are out with referendum roadmaps.
Just when you think things can’t get any crazier, they always do. The Guardian reports on unpublished Troika documents that show Greece is only too right in asking for debt relief. That for the Syriza government to sign what the Troika wants to force them to sign would see Tsipras et al plunge their country into a financial hell hole.
As the shortened week continues ahead of tomorrow's payrolls print, and amid chaotic Greek headline-hockey, ADP and Challenger jobs data gives us a glimpse of what volatility lies ahead. After jumping a little last month, but remaining in weak territory, ADP printed 237k for June (beating expectations of +217.5k) in line with estimates for nonfarm payrolls. This is the best print since Dec 2014 but is dominated by small businesses with large companies lagging. Job gains were dominated by Services (+225k) with goods-producing fiorms gaining a mere 12k jobs. This comes after Challenger-Gray showed job cuts increasing 42.7% YoY in June and are at the highest level for June since 2009.