US, South Korea Begin Joint Naval Exercises Involving US Aircraft Carrier

For all his endless posturing, North Korea's Un has done absolutely nothing. And if his inability and unwillingness to translate threats into actions continue, that will pretty much be it for North Korea's hope to even get a few loose pennies as a nuisance factor. This may be tested in the next 48 hours as South Korea and the US begin two days of joint naval exercises off the country's east coast, involving the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier CVN 68 Nimitz. Perhaps more informative than North Korea's bluster will be to see what if any reaction China has to a US presence in a hotly contested (with Japan) naval territory.

Frontrunning: May 13

• Hilsenrath: A Top Contender at the Fed Faces Test Over Easy Money (WSJ)
• Yen drops further as G7 avoids criticizing Japan (Reuters)
• Markets missed Flaherty’s clues on next Bank of Canada chief (G&M)
• Republicans turn screws over Tea Party tax probes (FT)
• Dual-track Libor replacement lined up (FT)
• Risks to China recovery seen as factory output underwhelms (Reuters)
• Barack Obama’s goal of universal healthcare could be set back significantly by Texas Governor Rick Perry (FT)
• Gold Bears Pull $20.8 Billion as BlackRock Says Buy (BBG)
• Mexico sets shelters as volcano shakes, spews ash (AP)
• Europe Eases Corporate Tax Dodge as Worker Burdens Rise (BBG)
• IPOs Set to Raise Most Cash Since Crisis (WSJ)
• Melting Ice Opens Fight Over Sea Routes for Arctic Debate (BBG)
• Top hedge funds bet on Greek banks (FT)
• Icahn Asks Investors to Make Big Bet on a Debt-Laden Dell (BBG)

Plan QE For The Hilsenrath Morning After

Overnight risk continues to ignore all newsflow (today the economic reporting finally picks up with advance retail sales due at 8:30 am as expectations for a second modest decline in a row of -0.3%) and is focused entirely on what the consensus decides to make of the Hilsenrath piece, even as the difficulty level was raised a notch following another late Sunday Hilsenrath piece, which puts more variable into the "tapering" equation, and whose focus is whether Bernanke will be replaced by Janet Yellen, Geithner or Summers, or anyone. With all three classified as permadoves, one does scratch their head how the market can be confused: worst case Fed tapers by $10/20 billion per month, market tumbles, then Bernanke's replacement or Ben himself ploughs on even more aggressively with QE. QED.

Visualizing How A Bitcoin Transaction Works

Following our last primer on the digital currency, prices have somewhat stabilized (despite the ongoing efforts of TPTB to regulate it out of existence). The following infographic provides a step-by-step illustration of how a bitcoin transaction occurs.

World's Largest Steelmaker Urges Europe To Declare Trade War On China

Currency wars are so pre-"QE eternity." At least that is the opinion of Indian multi-billionaire Lakshmi Mittal, and owner of the world's biggest steelmaker, who urged Europe to embrace protectionism and erect trade barriers to "protect" its manufacturers (benefiting one ArcelorMittal among others), while at the same time bashing austerity, saying "the futures of EU manufacturing depended on politicians in Brussels helping industry face what he said was unfair competition from China." In other words, it's time for Europe to escalate into full blown trade warfare with China. It is unclear if Mr. Mittal had any thoughts on how China would, in turn, escalate to this progression in trade warfare: whether with tariffs, subsidies, or outright dumping. What does appear quite clear is that the owner of ArcelorMittal, who on Friday posted a net loss of $345 million (down from a $92 million profit a year earlier) on Q1 sales plunging by 13%, whose stock is just off its 52 week lows, and who said he may close plants in Eastern Europe if the "economy continues to slump", may have some ulterior motives in asking that Europe fight his war for him.

Bond And Stock Futures Open Red - Buying Opportunity?

Erasing Friday's gains (and the well-documented VIX-driven melt-up into the close), S&P 500 futures have opened down 4.5 points (against JPY-carry for now), Treasuries are indicated 4-5bps higher in yield, and Gold is opening down 0.4%. Not in itself a large move but perhaps indicative of some concerns that Hilsenrath is on to something and the punchbowl is being ever so gradually pulled away (though, we suspect it is only a matter of time before this article is spun in a bullish light, suggesting that the Fed still does not have a firm timeline in mind, which by implication is bullish - no news is good news - and much more jawboning has to come before the real tapering talk begins). In the meantime, we are sure the clarion call to Buy-The-Feding-Dip will be heard and in the interest of balance, we offer some insight into 'valuations'.

Eric Sprott: The Golden Answer To Chinese Import Data

Manufacturing data in the last several months has suggested that economic growth around the world is slowing. However, China’s export growth surprised the market this week and unexpectedly accelerated in April, even as shipments to the U.S. and Europe fell. This has created a conundrum for analysts and market watchers. How can China be growing while the countries that purchase its exports are slowing? As we noted earlier, the numbers don’t add up. Many analysts have attributed China’s increasing imports as signs of a healthy manufacturing sector, or increasing investments in infrastructure and property. Our simple analysis shows that more than one third of the increase in imports is due to China’s increasing gold consumption. This new gold buying could have a significant impact on Chinese import statistics and force analysts to reconsider the strength of the Chinese domestic economy.