Paul Ryan Rules Himself Out Of 2016 Presidential Race - Live feed

...We felt a disturbance in the farce, as if millions of establishment GOP voices cried out in terror... and were suddenly silenced. Just minutes after we opined on "what Paul Ryan was up to" suggesting he is positioning for a 2020 run, The Hill reports the Speaker will make a statement at 1515ET "to rule himself out [of the 2016 nomination debacle] and put this to rest once and for all."

 

How Wall Street's Biggest Permabull Became Its Go To Permabear

Ever since the beginning of 2016 and especially in the last few weeks, while Hugh Hendry has been chugging horse doses of blue pills, Joe LaVorgna has finally discovered the red pill, and perhaps because he has been focusing a little to much on the performance of the stock price of his employer, or for whatever other reason, gradually Wall Street's biggest bull has mutated into its most outspoken bear.

WTI Crude Tops $42 As Russia "Hopes" For Deal At Doha

Despite the day's rampacious rally in stocks and crude aftwer "unidentified sourtces" said a Russia-Saudi deal was done, Russia's Dmitry Peskov just issued a statement that "there is hope" for a deal at Doha. This sent stocks and crude jumping once again... even though we suggest "hope" for a deal is not "a deal."

Chesapeake Takes Out "McClendon Suicide"-Squeeze Rally Highs, Soars 35%

In the second massive short-squeeze of the year for Chesapeake 'speculators', the company of the verge of bankruptcy has exploded 35% higher today, perfectly tagging (to the penny) the 200-day-moving-average. Breaking above the McClendon probe/suicide "squeeze" rally highs, at $6.13, CHK is at 5-month highs... as 'modeled' CDS spreads collapse after the management was forced to pledge the entire company to maintain existing credit lines.

Indirect Bidders Surge In Strong 3 Year Auction

One month ago, when the Treasury sold 3 Year paper the reception was rather lukewarm when ahead of the March FOMC there was some concern that the Fed may actually hike. Now that any speculation of a rate hike has been shelved indefinitely, there was no problem for the US Treasury to sell this month's batch of 3 Year paper. With the WI trading at 0.894% at 1pm, the high yield printed 0.890%, stopping 0.4 bps through the When Issued.

Active Managers Defeated... Globally... Again

One would think that active managers would eventually outperform somewhere after the negative press that ensued a year ago.  And now that 2015 performance data has been properly audited and tabulated, we can see what the new results are... (spoiler alert - not good).

A "Massive" New Headache For Banks Has Emerged

It's not just the shale drillers who are in danger as they see their liquidity evaporate. As the WSJ writes today, and as covered here since January, it is the lenders themselves whose unfunded revolver exposure may suddenly become funded and expose them to even greater risks from the energy sector should oil not rebound far more forcefully and put US oil and gas companies back in the black. How big is the exposure? Very big: $147 billion.

What Is Paul Ryan Up To?

While many establishment Republicans would love Paul Ryan to emerge in Cleveland to rescue the party from what they think is a doomed presidential bid, as The Hill reports, some among their number recognize that any effort to take the nomination away from Trump or Cruz, if either goes to Cleveland with far more delegates than anyone else, could hurt the GOP for years.

How The Oil Crisis Has Impacted Military Spending

Some observers of the energy market with a cynical bent say producers need a new war for prices to improve. It could be this hypothetical war that governments in Asia, Europe and the Middle East are preparing for. Let’s just hope the conflict remains hypothetical. The market can rebalance itself without it; it will just take longer. Oil producers will just have to swallow this and wait.

Egyptians Outraged At Government Plan To Hand Over Islands To Saudi Arabia As Saudi King Arrives In Turkey

the Egyptian government said on Saturday that the two countries had signed maritime demarcation accords that put the islands of Tiran and Sanafir in Saudi waters in the process handing over the two islands to the Saudi kingdom. As Reuters reported, "Egypt's announcement during a five-day visit by King Salman that it would transfer two Red Sea islands to its Saudi ally has outraged Egyptians, who took to social media to criticize the move"

"The Selling Just Won't Stop" - Smart Money Sells Stocks For Near Record 11th Consecutive Week

Last week, during which the S&P 500 was down 1.2%, BofAML clients were net sellers of US equities for the 11th consecutive week. Net sales of $1.7bn were smaller than in the prior week, but all three client groups (hedge funds, institutional clients, private clients) remained net sellers, led by institutional clients. Net sales were in both large and mid-caps, while clients bought small caps last week.

What Happens When The Market Goes Nowhere For One Year (Hint: Nothing Good)

Even if "this time is different," we don’t expect it will be different enough to sustain valuations at current obscene levels in the absence of favorable market internals. Refrain from placing too much faith in the "fast, furious, prone-to-failure" advances that occasionally clear oversold conditions.

"Investors" Panic Buy Stocks After IMF Downgrades The World

What is more bullish than utterly bearish macro-economic data? Answer - more bearish macro data (and a call for moar monetray stimulus that has workled so well in recent years)... So what happens now that algos have run the overnight high stops?

Manhattan's Real Estate Woes Get Worse: No Demand In Building Where Ackman Splurged $90 Million

Luxury real estate developer Extell Development Co can’t sell luxury condos at what may be New York's premier ultra luxury destination, the One57 tower, which it is attributing it to the fact that there is an abundant supply of condos already on the market. As a reminder, One57 is where Bill Ackman paid $91.5 million in April 2015 for a condo (which he hoped to flip), just a few months before Valeant, and his fund, suffered staggering losses. Perhaps that should have been the tell.

IMF Again Cuts Global Growth Forecast As It Warns Of "Secular Stagnation"

Moments ago the IMF did what it does better than anyone (with the exception of the Fed): it once again admitted its forecast of world growth had been too optimistic, and as a result in its just released quarterly World Economic Outlook report, it cut its forecast for 2016 global GDP growth from 3.4% to 3.2%, and from 3.6% to 3.5% for 2017. Indicatively, back in July 2014 the IMF was forecasting 4.0% GDP growth in 2016. It is now 20% lower.