Whitney Tilson Female? Does Reuters Know Something We Don't

"The market is having a temper tantrum, nothing more, so I view this turmoil as a buying opportunity," said Whitney Tilson, who runs hedge fund Kase Capital. She noted, however, that prices are still not as cheap as they were in 2008 or 2011.

Here Comes The National Team

Yesterday a mysterious and large bidder suddenly arrived mid-morning to surge offshore Yuan and encourage global carry trades against JPY - spiking The Dow 400 points in the process. Overnight offshore Yuan tumbled and for a while dragged stocks with it... but now after 2 clear interventions, CNH is surging into the US open to provide just the "ECB-confirming"  momentum ignition to ensure a positive market for professionals to sell into...

Philly Fed Contracts For 5th Month In A Row As "Hope" Crashes To 3-Year Lows

Philly Fed improved from a dismal -10.2 to a just terrible -3.5 for the 5th consecutive month of contraction with the number of employees and average workweek both tumbling. Shipments increased but new orders remain in contraction as inventories dropped. The more troubling news is the total collapse in "hope" as the six-month-forward outlook collapsed to Nov 2012 lows...

Initial Jobless Claims Surge To 6-Month Highs

The last 4 months have seen a notable change in the jobless claims regime. After ratcheting lower week after week for 5 years, initial jobless claims have risen from 42 year lows at 243k in October to 293k today. The first time we reached these levels was July 2014 and claims are rising at the fastest rate since the financial crisis. Crucially for those who look at 'record' low jobless claims as a positive, history tells us that is the time to worry as recessions loom on the upswing.

Mario Draghi Deer In Headlights Presser - Live Feed

Despite the turmoil reverberating across global markets, the ECB kept the depo rate unchanged on Thursday at -0.30%. The focus now turns to the Draghi presser where market participants will be keen on parsing the former Goldmanite’s every word for hints at how the central bank plans to cope with the disinflationary impulse unleashed by sub-$30 crude and the ongoing “adjustment” of the Chinese economy and currency.

ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged, Focus Turns To Draghi

Nobody was expecting a rate cut (and hopefully not a hike) from the ECB today, and that's precisely what they got when moments ago the ECB announced it would keep its three key rates unchanged,

Frontrunning: January 21

  • Global Stocks Face Fresh Losses (WSJ)
  • European stocks lick wounds after mauling, oil steady (Reuters)
  • Hang Seng Index Sinks Below Net Assets for First Time Since 1998 (BBG)
  • U.S. Hedge Funds Boast Lower Losses as Markets Tumble Further (NYT)
  • Deutsche Bank Drops as Investment Bank Revenue Concerns Mount (BBG)
  • Islamic State Uses Syria’s Biggest Dam as Refuge and Potential Weapon (WSJ)

What Will Mario Draghi Say Today: Thoughts Ahead Of The ECB Announcement

ECB rhetoric likely to focus on collapsing inflation expectations (pictured below), now close to levels where QE1 ECB got announced in Jan 2015. With Oil lower than expected by the ECB for 2016, and oil forward un-anchoring and moving below 50$ (chart below), an higher inflation for the year due to base effects is also harder to see. Rhetoric can include anticipation of deeply negative interest rates and upsized QE, for future meetings.

George Soros: "Europe Is On The Verge Of Collapse"

"China will exert a negative influence on the rest of the world by reinforcing the deflationary tendencies that are already prevalent. China is responsible for a larger share of the world economy than ever before and the problems it faces have never been more intractable...the EU is on the verge of collapse. The Greek crisis taught the European authorities the art of kicking the can down the road, although it would be more accurate to describe it as kicking a ball uphill so that it keeps rolling back down. The EU now is confronted with not one but five or six crises at the same time."

The U.S. Is At The Center Of The Global Economic Meltdown

While the economic implosion progresses this year, there will be considerable misdirection and disinformation as to the true nature of what is taking place. As I have outlined in the past, the masses were so ill informed by the mainstream media during the Great Depression that most people had no idea they were actually in the midst of an “official” depression until years after it began. The chorus of economic journalists of the day made sure to argue consistently that recovery was “right around the corner.” Our current depression has been no different, but something is about to change. Unlike the Great Depression, social crisis will eventually eclipse economic crisis in the U.S. That is to say, our society today is so unequipped to deal with a financial collapse that the event will inevitably trigger cultural upheaval and violent internal conflict.

For Emerging Markets, It Is Now Worse Than The Asian Financial Crisis

"It’s Black Wednesday for emerging markets," one strategist warned and Thursday is not looking any better, as SocGen's Berg warns "The rout in emerging markets could continue for some time, especially as the major global central banks have exhausted their ammunition in recent years, making it unlikely that they will rescue global markets this time around." In fact, as Bloomberg reports, this year's EM turmoil is already worse than in the same period in 1998's Asian financial crisis (and EM FX is even worse).

Guest Post: How Hitler Came To Power

Hitler came to power for a number of documented reasons, some of which are rational, others of which are emotional. Either way, the world continues to question how a vicious madman could rise to power in Germany during this time, most of all the German people who, to this day, will do almost anything to prevent another authoritarian movement.