The Yellen "Resilience" Doctrine Is Dangerous Keynesian Blather

Just when you thought that nothing could be worse than bubble blindness of Greenspan and Bernanke - along comes the Yellen doctrine of “resilience”. Its dangerous Keynesian blather, and far worse than Greenspan’s feigned agnosticism which held that the Fed does not have the capacity to recognize financial bubbles in the making and should therefore mop them up after they burst. The Maestro never did say exactly what caused the massive and destructive dot-com and housing bubbles which occurred on his watch - except that Chinese factory girls stacked 12-to-a-dorm-room apparently saved way too much RMB. By contrast, Yellen’s primitive Keynesian mind knows exactly what causes financial bubbles. She has now militantly asserted that bubbles are entirely an irrational impulse in the private market and that the price of money and debt has absolutely nothing to do with financial stability.

Someone Forget To Tell The VIX-Slamming Machines That The Market Is Shut

As American investors sit back in their chairs, watching parades, sipping Budweiser elegantly, and generally having a good day off... there are some 'people' that are working hard to ensure the status quo is sustained. In order to maintain the illusion of exuberance and lack of concern, we are used to the ubiquitous melt-up in stocks late on a Friday afternoon (always driven by an 'odd' collapse in VIX). Of course, no human would be silly enough to do that on a day when European stocks tumbled on banking contagion concerns and the fact that stock markets around the world are now totally closed... so -  we ask in all incredulity - WTF is going with VIX futures...

Largest Austrian Bank Crashes After "Revealing" 40% Surge In Bad Debt Provisions, Record Loss

Ever since 2012, when we first revealed that the biggest problem plaguing Europe's financial sector is the $2 trillion+ in bad debt on the books of European banks (not our numbers, the IMF's), it became clear that the only way Europe can avoid a complete financial meltdown coupled with currency disintegration, is if it can constantly keep rolling over said bad debt (obviously the only way to do that would be to create an epic debt bubble leading managers of other people's money to do idiotic things like buy Spanish debt at 2.75%). This is why not only the BOJ launched its mega QE in 2013, but why Draghi also kicked in with NIRP a month ago: the logic - do anything and everything to reflate the biggest credit bubble possible as otherwise European banks will have no choice but to face up to their trillions in bad loans.

The Complete Annotation Of SocGen's Latest Hit Piece On Gold

Gold has held firmly above $1300 for over two weeks, confounding those who said it would never see that key level again, but as the constantly-bearish SocGen explains in this 'astounding' report, gold's downturn is set to return... except their reasoning has a fatal flaw - it's entirely factually incorrect.

The Great Rotation Is Over

We're going to need another meme... the great pretense of the great rotation as 'investors' dump bonds and buy stocks with both hands and feet as they realize growth has reached escape velocity and its time to BTFATH... has failed. As the following chart from JPMorgan shows, the brief period of net flows to stocks over bonds has ended. If a rally like this can't get the animal spirits flowing in anyone but the C-Suite of your local share-buyback-ing corporation, when will it?

Ron Paul: Celebrate Independence Day By Opposing Government Tyranny

This week Americans will enjoy Independence Day with family cookouts and fireworks. Flags will be displayed in abundance. Sadly, however, what should be a celebration of the courage of those who risked so much to oppose tyranny will instead be turned into a celebration of government, not liberty. The mainstream media and opportunistic politicians have turned Independence Day into the opposite of what was intended.  The idea of opposing - by force if necessary - a tyrannical government has been turned into a celebration of tyrannical government itself!

European Stocks Slide, Close At Lows On Austrian Bank Concerns

It appears concerns over Erste Bank are reducing investor risk appetites in Europe despite Draghi's promise to catch every falling knife forever... EuroStoxx Banks closed down over 2% - their biggest drop in 7 weeks. This led to broad weaknes across European stocks (down 0.5% and closing at their lows led by Spain and Italy; and late weakness in Sweden's OMX). Peripheral bond spreads nudged wider. Perhaps most notably the European financial credit spreads widened modestly but remain dramatically disconnected to financial stocks.

Expropriation Is Back - Is Christine Lagarde The Most Dangerous Woman In The World?

The most dangerous organization is the now French led IMF with Christine Lagarde at the helm, which has presented a concept report in which 'debt cuts for over-indebted states are uncompromising' and are to be performed more effectively in the future by defaulting on retirement accounts held in life insurance, mutual funds and other types of pension schemes, or arbitrarily extending debt perpetually so you cannot redeem. Yes you read correctly, The new IMF paper describes in great detail exactly how to now allow the private sector, which has invested in government bonds, will be expropriated to pay for the national debts of the socialist governments. This far-reaching plan for the expropriation of savers, investors and retirees clearly shows the reality of socialism.

No Q3 GDP Boost: Hurricane Arthur Weakens To Category 1, Moves Away From East Coast

Anyone hoping for a resolution of the biggest economic conundrum of modern times will have to wait. What is the conundrum you ask? Simple: whether or not extreme adverse weather is positive or negative for GDP. It appears that any expectation Arthur would devastate the east coast, with either positive or negative GDP consequences, has been cancelled. Because not only has Arthur just been lowered to a Category 1 hurricane from 2, but now appears to be moving away from the east coast entirely.

JPM Cuts Its Original 2014 GDP Forecast In Half, Sees Slowest Full Year Growth Since 2009

JPM's latest (and certainly not least) prophecy for the full year GDP: precisely one half of what it expected 6 months ago, or just 1.4%, following a cut to Q2 GDP to 2.5% from 3.0% (which means negative growth for the entire first half, something in a less insane world would be called a recession), while keeping Q3 and Q4 GDP miraculously at 3.0% for both quarters.

US Markets Are Closed: Here Is What Else Is Going On

July 4th may be a US national holiday, which means the S&P 500 won't hit a record high on good news and a recorder high on bad, but judging by global trading volumes - already abysmal heading into today - one may as well give the entire world a day off. However, for now, global equities have come off the impressive, and curiously schizophrenic US-data inspired gains of yesterday which sent the DJIA over 17,000 yet which has resulted in an almost unchanged 10Y Treasury print since before the NFP release. Once again bonds and stocks agree to disagree.

Is The Cloward-Piven Strategy Being Used To Destroy America?

In the mid-sixties at the height of the “social revolution” the line between democratic benevolence and outright communism became rather blurry. The Democratic Party, which controlled the presidency and both houses of Congress, was used as the springboard by social engineers to introduce a new era of welfare initiatives enacted in the name of “defending the poor”, also known as the “Great Society Programs”. These initiatives, however, were driven by far more subversive and extreme motivations, and have been expanded on by every presidency since, Republican and Democrat alike.At Columbia University, sociologist professors Richard Cloward and Francis Fox Piven introduced a political strategy in 1966 that they believed would eventually lead to the total transmutation of America into a full-fledged centralized welfare state (in other words, a collectivist enclave). The spearpoint of the Cloward-Piven strategy involved nothing less than economic sabotage against the U.S..

The Arab Spring Just Got Serious Again - Kuwait Is Burning

Same stuff... different country. Once again someone (former opposition leader Musallam al-Barrak) exposed the corruption among the elites (revealed documents that allegedly prove billions of illicit financial transfers were made to senior officials, including judges) and the leaders (Kuwait officials) decided he should be arrested and charged with slander. This has caused uproar among the people as hundreds of protesters rallied overnight in support of al-Barrack, marching from his house to the jail chanting: "The people want to cleanse the judiciary!" The police in the oil-rich nation of Kuwait used tear gas and stun grenades early Thursday to disperse the protesters. As we have noted previously, uprising against government corruption is a global trend and in the case of Kuwait (which is oil-rich, the last friendly place to US in the Middle East, and has the highest per capita Twitter usage on the planet), we suspect this 'spring' is far from over.

Independence Day? 79% Of Americans Are Fine With The Current Level Of Tyranny

On July 4th, the United States will celebrate Independence Day once again.  But who in the world are we trying to kid?  Our founders intended to create a society where freedom and liberty would be maximized, but that is not what America looks like today.  Instead, we live in a country that literally has millions of laws, rules and regulations.  We have a government that is obsessed with spying on the entire planet and that tries to watch, monitor, track and record as much information about all of us as it possibly can.  A “Big Brother” surveillance grid is being constructed all around us, and our militarized police are becoming more brutal with each passing day.  Sadly, most Americans don’t seem too alarmed by any of this.  In fact, a new Gallup survey has found that 79 percent of Americans are “satisfied” with the level of freedom in this nation.  That is a very alarming statistic. If most people believe that everything is “just fine”, then our leaders are going to feel free to keep doing the same things that they have been doing.

"It's Either Do It, Or You Die" California Regulators Clamp Down On Water Waste

While Las Vegas faces an existential crisis (and appears to be ignoring it), California regulators are starting to clamp down on water waste. As WSJ reports, about 60 California cities and agencies have imposed mandatory water-use cutbacks, some as high as 50%. In many cases, the rules are enforced by charging higher fees for excess usage. In others, inspectors are deployed to crack down on scofflaws. Sacramento - the state's capital - is among the worst offenders and most heavily 'policed' as a team of 40 inspectors have handed out2,444 notices year-to-date, with fines of up to $1,000 for repeat offenders. Neighbors are encouraged to whistleblow - there has been 7,604 water-use complaints; but not everyone is embracing the change as lawn repair is down 40% - "The propaganda dictates we haven't much choice... It's either do it or you die."

The Most Bizarre Market-Timing Chart Ever?

According to a paper by economists at UC Northwestern University and UC Berkeley, Anna Cieslak and Adair Morse and Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, another, even more surprising trading pattern using FOMC announcement has emerged. Specifically, anyone who engaged in the simple "even" strategy of buying the stocks of the S&P 500 on the day before a Fed policy announcement, selling them a week later, then buying them again the following week and sticking with the pattern until the subsequent Fed meeting generated a whopping 650% return since 1994, far outperforming the inverse "odd" strategy which shocking had a negative return over the past two decades years, and jsut as surprisingly, outperforming the market's own 505% return during this period.