Time To Pull Out The Nasdaq/China Comparison Chart Again

The similarities continue. Both saw an initial sharp 2-3 month fall from their peaks followed by a quarter or so of stability. The NASDAQ then started to fall sharply again and Chinese equities seem to have started a similar trend on a similar timeline....

Another Bubble Bursts

Dear Janet, it appears the US consumer (or small business) is nothing like as strong as you "believed."

"You Lie" - Fact-Checking Obama's SOTU Job "Gains" Claims

President Barack Obama’s final State of the Union address came up short of the facts on several topics. Obama apparently omitted part of his presidency in boasting of nearly 900,000 manufacturing jobs “in the past six years.” Over his entire time in office, manufacturing jobs have gone down by 230,000.

For Amazon "Is It Different This Time?"

We show the sources of return for AMZN stock, split between sales growth and multiple expansion. As the chart asks (and answers) the question longs should be asking themselves is whether it is "different this time?"

Can ISIS Actually Gain Power Over Libya's Oil?

The Islamic State's play for Libyan oil could lead the warring governments to speed up a power-sharing agreement to end the civil war and unite them in the face of an even greater threat. Or, they could lose all to ISIS, which would allow the terrorist group to seize control of an OPEC country.

CSX CEO Admits "This Hasn't Happened Outside Of A Recession"

One of our favorite hypocritical CEOs spoke this morning to try and explain why his rail freight transportation company's stock is plunging. 11 months ago Michael Ward was adamant on CNBC that he has "not seen any changes," suggesting everything's fine down to $30-35 oil and "expected no impact on crude shipments." Today, he exclaims, the volume drop can be seen as "freight recession," warning that "there is pressure on markets not seen outside of a recession." He is right, of course, as we noted previously, the weakness in rails is entirely recessionary and is no longer limited to industrials or coal.

It's Not Just China, "The Whole Damn System Is Untenable"

China is untenable in its current financial position. That is the primary problem, and so long as it remains so whatever the PBOC does will have but a fleeting impact. In more immediate terms, that is being recognized by the “dollar” run which continues to savage not just China but South America (more than just Brazil), Africa, Asia (more than China) and you might even argue Canada and Mexico. From that, we see that it isn’t China that is the problem with the “dollar”, it is the whole damn system.

US Small Caps Plunge To 30-Month Lows Into Bear Market

The first week of July 2013 was the last time the Russell 2000 traded at these levels. That is 30 months of buy-and-hold for no return. Despite the constant clammer from "Small Cap fund managers" that they are the plaxce to be for protection against a soaring USD (since they are dominantly domestically focused), it seems the fact that small caps are much more sensitive to credit market conditions is the real reason and that market is carnaging.

Scorching Demand For 10 Year Paper: Indirects Take Down Near Record 71%, Bid To Cover Surges

If anyone had expected that today's record AB InBev deal would lead to a tail in the just concluded $21 billion 10-Year (technically 9 Year-10 month CUSIP M56 reopening) auction, they would be very disappointed, when moments ago the US Treasury announced a high yield of 2.09%, stopping a whopping 1.5 bps through the When Issued 2.105%, and the lowest yield since October's 2.07%. But the real stunner was the internals, where the Directs took down at modest 11.3%, but it was the foreign central bankers, aka the Indirects, who took down a whopping 71%, the second highest on record, and just 0.3% shy of the record high hit in February 2011.

The End Of The Luxury Housing Boom: US Treasury Launches Crack Down On Secret Buyers Of Luxury Real Estate

“We are seeking to understand the risk that corrupt foreign officials, or transnational criminals, may be using premium U.S. real estate to secretly invest millions in dirty money,” said FinCEN Director Jennifer Shasky Calvery. “Cash purchases present a more complex gap that we seek to address. These GTOs will produce valuable data that will assist law enforcement and inform our broader efforts to combat money laundering in the real estate sector.”

Is This The Spot For A Small Cap Bounce?

The beaten-down Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index has reached a confluence of significant potential near-term support levels. Should this level fail to provide as much as a speed bump and the Russell 2000 slices right through it, then perhaps a more devastating market decline is already at hand.

Order Book For Biggest Bond Sale Ever Takes Shape: Over $100BN In Orders For $40BN AB InBev Offering

While the market for corporate bond issuance has been relatively quiet among the recent broader market turbulence, in a few hours a historic new bond is about to price and be sold to investors. Earlier today, Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, the acquiror in the second largest M&A deal of 2015 valued at $117 billion and just shy of Pfizer's massive $160 billion merger with Allergan, started offering bonds that will back its takeover of SABMiller Plc in a sale that according to Bloomberg will stretch into Europe and is set to become the biggest corporate-debt offering on record.

FANG Bloodbath

Just when you thought it was safe to get back in the warm waters of the FANTAsy stocks, they slap you in the face with their triple-digit valuations...

Inflation Expectations Collapse Post-Rate-Hike, Near Record Lows

Since The Fed hiked rates in December, the market's inflation expectations have collapsed in yet another clear indication of "policy error." 5Y5Y Forward inflation swaps have crashed below 2.00% for only the 3rd time in history (Lehman 2008 and September's Fed Fold were the other two) as despite central banker promises of transitory low-flation, the money is being bet against them as the regime-shift from full-faith to no-faith in Fed support continues.