With ADP out of the way, and providing no guidance to an extreme NFP print one way or another, we once again turn to Gallup. As a reminder, a few days ago we showed that things are bad and getting worse for America's job prospects following direct polling land as relates to unemployment on a seasonally unadjusted basis. Today, the polling group has released its seasonally adjusted unemployment number and how it compares to the BLS' own estimation of the labor market. In a word: it is not pretty (which, again, is good for those who are hoping and praying St. Ben will keep the monetary Kool Aid running for a little bit longer): at 8.6% it is over 1% higher than the BLS' reported print, and is the highest since the end of 2011.
The last 2 weeks have seen the biggest drop in initial jobless claims in 3 months as today's print is within a smidge of six year lows. Continuing claims also fell close to 5.5 year lows. All good healthy "Taper-On" news ahead of the all-important NFP. However, the only fly in the ointment as far as celebrating this 'renaissance' remains productivity gains and the ongoing slump in unit labor costs (which missed expectations of an easy-money earnings-growth generated +0.8% gain and came in at a dismal 0.0%). Simply put, all the hope of wage inflation providing the self-sustaining glue to hold this 'thing' together post-Fed-Taper is fading fast as the liquidity pipeline remains unerringly clogged.
Will Draghi confirm what every extrapolating talking head believes - that Europe is recovering - or will be stick to the facts that credit creation is collapsing, the core has turned down, and unemployment rates and delinquencies are at all time highs? But how will Draghi explain his forward guidance to his imperial leader?
*MERKEL SAYS GLOBAL TIGHTENING OF MONETARY POLICY NEEDED
We are sure the "market" will be offered as evidence that OMT has worked and that recovery is just another quarter around the corner... just a little more accomodation...
While the ADP private payrolls report is nothing but pompous noise, which despite allegedly relying on actual empirical payrolls data has greater revisions than even the BLS's largely made up number, what it reported today would certainly have implications on expectations for tomorrow' NFP report. Which is why on the surface while the just reported miss to expectations of 176K (Exp. 184K) was not too bad, it was quite bad to those hoping the Friday NFP print would be atrocious and force the Fed to delay tapering. Based on today's data point at least, the Taper is set to proceed in just under two weeks. This was the first miss in three months, and also follows a small revision to the July number from 200K to 198K. Finally, this was the first sequential break in the monthly rate of increase since April.
China Officially Backs Russia On Syria, Warns "Military Action Would Have Negative Impact On Global Economy"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2013 - 08:07
Until now China had kept a relatively low profile on the Syria issue, occasionally issuing veiled support for the Assad regime. That changed at today's G-20 meeting in Russia, when China's vice-finance minister Zhu Guangyao officially launched the Syrian axis of Russia and China, both of which now indirectly support the Assad regime, and oppose US-led military intervention. From the FT: "China warned on Thursday that military intervention in Syria would hurt the world economy and push up oil prices, reinforcing Vladimir Putin’s attempts to talk US President Barack Obama out of air strikes. “Military action would have a negative impact on the global economy, especially on the oil price – it will cause a hike in the oil price,” Chinese vice-finance minister Zhu Guangyao told a briefing before the start of the G20 leaders’ talks."
There were no expectations for anything out of leftfield at the ECB this morning. There were also no surprises as Draghi kept rates unchanged. The biggest issue, of creeping EONIA and how the central bank will resolve growth and inflation expectations, is expected to be covered in 45 minutes at the press conference during which Mario will once again remind us all that the OMT still doesn't and never actually did exist.
- BOE Leaves Policy Unchanged as Carney’s Guidance Assessed (BBG)
- Surprise or not, U.S. strikes can still hurt Assad (Reuters)
- Samsung Gear: A Smartwatch in Search of a Purpose (BusinessWeek)
- 'Jumbo' Mortgage Rates Fall Below Traditional Ones (WSJ)
- Capital Unease Again Bites Deutsche Bank (WSJ)
- Technical snafus confuse charges for Obamacare plans (Reuters)
- JPMorgan subject of obstruction probe in energy case (Reuters)
- U.S. Car Sales Soar to Pre-Slump Level (WSJ) - i.e., to just when the market crashed
- BoJ lifts assessment of Japan’s economic health (FT)
- Dead Dog in Reservoir Helps Drive Venezuelans to Bottled Water (BBG)
- Russia Boosts Mediterranean Force as U.S. Mulls Syria Strike (BBG)
What perhaps Minsky couldn’t conceive of was the point at which debt, deficits and interest rates would go to such extremes that the creation of credit itself, which was and remains the heart of capitalism, would be threatened. No longer might the seventh inning stretch lead to a Coke, some “Cracker Jacks” and the resumption of the old ballgame. Instead, zero-bound interest rates and debt/GDP ratios in a majority of capitalistic economies would begin to threaten, not heal, the nature of finance and investment in the real economy. Investors, leery of not only overleveraged investment banks such as Lehman Brothers, but overextended countries such as Greece, Cyprus and a host of Euroland lookalikes would derisk as opposed to rerisk as per the Minsky model. As well, with interest rates close to the zero bound, investors in intermediate and long term bonds would become dependent on Big Bank to do their bidding. When that QE buying power became jeopardized via tapering and the eventual ninth inning conclusion of asset purchases, then the process of maturity extension and the terming out of historically modeled corporate lending was prematurely threatened.
Just when the market thought it had priced in a new equilibrium without (or with - it is not quite clear) a Syria war, here comes Thursday with a data dump that will make one's head spin. Central bankers are once again on parade starting overnight, when the BOJ announced no change to its QE program and retaining its monetary base target of JPY270 trillion. The parade continues with both the BOE and ECB, the latter of which is expected to address the recent pick up in Eonia rates and take praise for the recent very much unsustainable "recovery" in the periphery even as Germany continues to slide lower (this morning's factory orders plunged 2.7% on exp. -1.0%), which in turn lead the Bund to pass above 2.0% for the first time since March 2011. Speaking of bonds blowing out, the US 10Y is now just 6 bps away from 3.00%, the widest since July 2011, and likely to breach the support level, taking out a boatload of stops and leading to the next big step spike in rates as the second selling scramble ensues. And just to keep every algo on its binary toes, today we also get a NFP preview with the ADP private payrolls at 8:15 am (Exp. 180K, down from 200K), Initial Claims (Exp. 330K), Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Exp. 1.60% and 0.9%), Factory Orders (Exp. -3.4%), Non-mfg ISM (Exp. 55), Final Durable Goods, EIA Nat Gas and DOE Crude Inventories, oh and the G-20 meeting in St. Petersburg where Putin and Obama are not expected to share much pleasantries, and where John Kerry's swiftboat may not be allowed to dock.
JPY Tests 100.00 For First Time In 6 Weeks; US Treasury Curve Collapses To Flattest In 13 Months; Gold/Silver SlammedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2013 - 01:36
UPDATE 2: And there go the precious metals... with their ubiquitous 'opening' slamdown...
UPDATE 1: US Treasuries are now rallying urgently back from the edge as European markets awake (and the EUR slammed)... what else would one expect on ECB/BoE day?
The exuberance of the US day-session has flopped into the evening and Asian stocks, buoyed by a plunging JPY and the carry-mob is on a charge once again. USDJPY just broke back over 100.00 for the first time since July 25th managing to lift the Nikkei almost 1000 points since Friday's close. Most Asian stocks are higher (India +2.6%) but FX is more varied with the Rupiah, Baht, and Ringgit lower still as the Rupee strengthens modestly (as forwards compress too). The USD is bid against the majors with EUR cracking lower. The tale of the night though is US Treasuries which have slammed higher in yield once again. The spread between 5Y Treasuries and 30Y has plunged over 30bps in the last month and now hovers just above 200bps - its lowest in 13 months. This bear-flattening (belly and short-end is underperforming notably overnight) has driven the market's implied 10Y rate for year-end over 3% for the first time since July 2011. The entire forward curve of the Treasury complex is repricing higher in rates as 'absolute' NIM expectations drop.
Over the past several decades, a tumorous growth has emerged from and taken over the Republican Party. This cancer is called a neoconservative, or colloquially just simply neocon. These folks are extremely insecure and hotheaded. It is best to avoid them in the wild whenever possible. Some signs that you may be in the presence of one are below...
Ahead of September, historically the worst month for stocks, Deutsche Bank notes that volatility has picked up and corporate bond issuance has slowed. There are several possible risks over the next few weeks that could trigger a further escalation in market volatility...
Next week Congress can do far more than stop a feckless Tomahawk barrage on a small country which is already a graveyard of civil war and sectarian slaughter. By voting “no” it can trigger the end of the American Imperium - five decades of incessant meddling, bullying and subversion around the globe which has added precious little to national security, but left America fiscally exhausted and morally diminished. By long standing historical demonstration, the US Congress specializes in paralysis, indecision and dysfunction. In the end, that is how the American warfare state will be finally brought to heel and why the American Imperium will come to an end - at last.
With interest rates rising and now clearly weighing on the housing recovery (and affordability, as we noted earlier), many look at the extreme jumps in auto sales being pumped out today and worry that higher rates will impact that credit-fueled orgasm of optimism. While house price appreciation and belief in its linear extrapolation seemed to have prompted an inordinate amount of fed-funded credit-based car sales in the last month, the fact is that rates won't 'directly' affect car-buyers, since as CNBC's Rick Santelli exclaims, auto-loan rates are massively high already with millions paying high double-digit rates and terms are now as long at 97 months!! Simply put, with incomes stagnating, should we see any marginal impact on ability-to-pay or credit-availability (which will be affected by higher rates weighing on funding abilities - see below), then as Santelli concludes, watch out for these little words... "Auto Sub-prime loans."