Dotcom Bubble 2.0? It's Different This Time

With Bloomberg's IPO index down 20% from its late 2014 highs and pressing 10-month lows (having gone nowhere in 2 years), all is not well in the private-to-public transaction market. Despite the multi-billion-dollar ponzi valuations of various 'disruptors' and leaked data opening the kimono on how insane this reality is, we thought the following clip perfectly summed up how it's different this time...

Guest Post: "Trump Terror" - The Donald & The Dollar

It is not enough to issue proclamations such as “it is time to get tough” or “It is time to make America great again”. These are the buzz words of a man that is reaching out to tap the rich vein of popular appeal. Perhaps that is what all politicians strive to do, especially when the field of candidates is rather crowded. However, what is clear is that a well-crafted economic strategy is not present, nor are staffers that would have the temerity to disagree with Mr T.

Seeking Alternatives? 1,000 Bitcoin ATMs Are Coming To Greece

It cannot be stressed enough how important Greece is to freedom, liberty and civilization across the globe. Greece is not a one-off, or merely a small nation in big trouble that holds little relevance for the rest of us. Greece is everything. What is happening to Greece follows the exact same game plan of what will eventually happen to every other supposedly sovereign nation. And it appears The Greeks are actively seeking alternatives...

Default Wave Looms As Energy Sector Credit Risk Surges To Record High

With oil prices pushing cycle lows and Shale firms as loaded with debt as they have ever been, the spike in energy sector credit risk should come as no surprise as the hopes of the last few months are destroyed. At 1076bps, credit risk for the energy sector has never been higher. As UBS recently warned, more defaults are looming and, as we discussed this week, private equity is waiting to pick up the heavily discounted pieces.

Immigration - Issue Of The Century

Will the West endure, or disappear by the century’s end as another lost civilization? Mass immigration, if it continues, will be more decisive in deciding the fate of the West than Islamist terrorism. For the world is invading the West.

No Jon Hilsenrath, It Is Not "Anti-Semitic" To Criticize Goldman Sachs

"The Goldman blowback is a particularly challenging subject to understand and analyze. Taken to extremes, criticism of the firm, which was founded and built by Jewish Americans, smacks at times of anti-Semitism. Fed officials don’t want to fall into the trap of ostracizing qualified people merely because of their association with the firm or its Jewish roots."

- John Hilsenrath

Germany Struggles With Too Much Renewable Energy

Since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Germany has been one of the few countries that have successfully moved away from nuclear energy. In fact, the contribution of nuclear power in Germany’s electricity generation has now fallen to just 16% and renewables are now the preferred source of electricity generation in the country. However, Germany and its neighbors are now facing an unusual problem. With the dramatic increase in green energy usage, Germany is generating so much electricity from renewables that it is finding it hard to handle it.

What Investors Think Is The Biggest "Tail Risk" Right Now

According to the latest, just released survey concerns about both geopolitics and Greece have been largely forgotten, as have Chinese debt defaults, and instead these have been replaced with far more overarching fears about a China recession (made all the more acute after China's devaluation) and an Emerging Market debt crisis. In fact, according to BofA, "2 out of 3 investors think either China recession or EM debt crisis = biggest "tail risks."

Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP Forecast Doubles Thanks To Subprime Auto Loans

Thanks to the economic miracle of offering cheap money to the least creditworthy of society, The Atlanta Fed just increased its forecast for Q3 GDP from +0.7% to +1.3% - though this is still less than half consensus estimates. The driver of this 'almost doubling' was due to a 15.3% increase in seasonally adjusted motor vehicle assemblies in July stuffing inventories even fuller. Of course, as we previously noted, this is entirely unsustainable and we await the mean-reversion in August and September.

China & The Decline In Quality (And Soon In Profits)

The era of reaping stupendous profits from low-quality goods produced by low-cost labor in a lax anything-goes regulatory system are ending, not as a result of policy changes but as a result of far deeper structural changes. Anyone thinking China, Inc. and Corporate America will emerge unscathed is living in Fantasyland.

Hilsenrath Warns Fed Is Out Of Ammo, "Policy Makers Resorting To Backup, Backup Plans"

As the U.S. economic expansion ages and clouds gather overseas, policy makers worry about recession. But, as WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath warns, their concern isn’t that a downturn is imminent but whether they will have firepower to fight back when one does arrive. "The world economy is like an ocean liner without lifeboats,” economists at HSBC Bank explained, and as looming threats are a reminder that the slow-growing global economy is just a shock away from peril, with rates already at zero, Douglas Elmendorf, the recently departed director of the CBO, warned, "policy makers are thinking about their backup, backup plans."

Silver Is Crashing

For the 3rd time in a week, Silver futures prices are plunging. This time though it is on considerably heavier volume as Silver drops 3.75% - the most in over a month - hammered off resistance at its 50DMA. Gold is also falling though not as aggressively.

"Independent" GMO Researcher Forced To Admit $25K Grant From Monsanto

There is no such thing as objective science when a researcher receives tens of thousands of dollars from the GM producers themselves, then goes on to promote their financiers’ products. Corporate collusion between government bureaucracies and educational institutions has become a serious issue in the U.S. that has corrupted objectivity in nearly every sector of American life.

Where The Shorts Are Hiding: S&P Short Interest By Sector

It will probably not come as a surprise that with oil trading at 6 year lows, and with China barely able to keep the plates spinning,  according to the latest NYSE data, Energy and Industrial were the most shorted sectors as the shorts congregate, having smelled if not blood than ongoing commodity and excess capacity turmoil. What about the remaining 8 sectors?

More Trouble In Turkey As Lira Plunges To New Lows, Bond Yields Soar

Political turmoil, rising violence, and general EM malaise have hit Turkey's currency hard and on Tuesday, the central bank left rates unchanged prompting further weakness in the lira which had already fallen earlier in the session after Emine Nur Gunay, PM Davutoglu's chief adviser, hinted that a rate hike was not in the cards.

Base Metals Battered As "Unholy Combination Of Factors" Crushes Copper

Copper (and aluminum) tumbled overnight as base metals were battered during an intense Asia session and losses are extending in European trading. As one trader noted "sentiment toward China is weak, the dollar is somewhat strong and there is an unholy combination of many factors keeping prices under pressure," and copper traded $4,999/mt on the LME - its first sub-$5000 print since 2009. Aluminum, nickel and zinc all tumbled also.