The Avalanche Of Q2 GDP Downgrades Begins

With all eyes firmly focused on the dismal Q1 GDP print and summarily dismissing it as 'noise', backward-looking, 'weather', and 'exogenous'; today's worrying spending data has sent the serial extrapolators among the sell-side economist herd scrambling to downgrade over-exuberant Q2 GDP expectations (five so far). One glance at this chart is all one needs to know about the "bounce back" in pent-up demand spending (that is not there). As Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Chris Rupkey told Bloomberg, "Don’t start betting on those 3% GDP numbers yet." This only trumped Goldman Sachs 'oh-so-embarrassed-again' Jan Hatzius who slashed his exuberant 4% Q2 GDP growth estimate to 3.5% (for now).

Barclays' Dark Pool Goes Dark After Client Boycott

Following yesterday's revelations that Barclays was raping its clients, maliciously misrepresenting and lying to them on a daily basis, who could have possibly foreseen the following development:

  • BARCLAYS SAID TO LOSE DARK POOL TRADING CUSTOMERS AFTER SUIT
  • BARCLAYS SAID TO BE SHUNNED BY BERNSTEIN, VOYA AFTER SUIT

Furthermore, traders are getting notifications that routing to LX is now down, meaning the dark pool is now merely... dark.

Germany 4 - 0 USA In The Economic World Cup

UPDATE: FIFA bites back and bans Uruguay's Luis Suarez for 4 months

As 12ET rolls around and USA's soccer team prepares to engage zee Germans with the goal of advancing to the FIFA World Cup's knockout stage, Bloomberg undertook an 'economic' face off to see just how the two powerhouse nations stack up. The result - a 4-0 win for Germany does not bode well for the soccer...

Stocks Slump As Fed's Bullard Warns The Market Is Wrong

"Markets don't appreciate how close the Fed is to its goals," and thus tightening, is the warning from the usually quite dovish Jim Bullard.

BULLARD SAYS MARKETS DON'T APPRECIATE HOW CLOSE FED IS TO GOALS; MARKETS SHOULD BE PRICING IN RATE INCREASES BASED ON WHAT THE FED SAYS

Remember, don't fight the fed - unless they say sell?

What Consumer Comeback? Personal Spending Disappoints For Two Out Of Three Months In Q2

When "justifying" the abysmal Q1 GDP print, one after another economist has scrambled to explain that this number is irrelevant, due to a spending halt during the "harsh winter", following which the US consumer has been spending like mad in Q2, and the PCE, which in Q1 was an abysmal 1.0%, and the worst since 2009, is set for a major rebound. Well, guess what: after last month's huge miss (originally -0.1% now revised to 0.0%, on expectations of a 0.2% rise), the month of May - the second month of Q2 - just showed that US consumer still refuses to spend. In fact, while personal income came in line with expectations in the month of May, rising 0.4%, same as expected, and disposable income in current dollars rising by $56 billion to $12,877 billion, it was spending which missed for the second month in a row and the 4th miss in the past 6 months rising only 0.2%, half the expected 0.4%! This was the fourth spending miss in the past six months.

Fed's Key Inflation Indicator Hits 19-Month High

Forget PPI (it's "cyclical"); ignore CPI (it's "noisy"); dismiss all the recent PMIs showing input prices surging and output prices dropping - that is the message the Fed is feeding the world over its 'inflation' concerns. However, the one indicator that the Fed really focuses on (or has said it does until now) - the PCE Deflator - just surged to 1.8% - its highest since October 2012 and nearing the Fed's 2% mandate-stumping level. Ignore that Janet!

Initial Jobless Claims Misses For 4th Week In A Row; Hovers Near Cycle Lows

On a revised basis, initial claims dropped 2k this week but marginally missed expectations at 312k. This is the 4th week in a row of marginal misses - none of which were large enough to get to excited about but it appears the limit has been reached in this cycle. Continuing claims rose for only the 2nd time in 10 weeks.

Frontrunning: June 26

  • Minorities Seen Driving U.S. Household Growth (Reuters)
  • GM prepares to recall some Cruze sedans with Takata air bags (Reuters)
  • PBOC Halts Repos as China Money Rate Climbs to Seven-Week High (BBG)
  • Ukraine Optimism Wavers on Peace as Cease-Fire Winds Down (BBG)
  • Economic Rebound Seen Undercut by Weak Pay as Vote Winner (BBG)
  • Cracks Open in Dark Pool Defense With Barclays Lawsuit (BBG)
  • The Survivor: How Eric Holder outlasted his (many) critics (Politico)
  • IBM, Lenovo Tackle Security Worries on Server Deal (WSJ)
  • Militants take Iraqi gas field town, president calls parliament session (Reuters)
  • Carney Surprises Confounding Markets as BOE Manages Guidance (BBG)

Futures Meander Ahead Of Today's Surge On Bad Economic News

Following yesterday's S&P surge on the worst hard economic data (not some fluffy survey conducted by a conflicted firm whose parent just IPOed and is thus in desperate need to perpetuate the market euphoria) in five years, there is little one can comment on how "markets" react to news. Good news, bad news... whatever - as long as it is flashing red, the HFT algos will send momentum higher. The only hope of some normalization is that following the latest revelation of just how rigged the market is due to various HFT firms, something will finally change. Alas, as we have said since the flash crash, there won't be any real attempts at fixing the broken market structure until the next, and far more vicious flash crash - one from which not even the NY Fed-Citadel PPT JV will be able to recover. For now, keep an eye on the USDJPY - as has been the case lately, the overnight USDJPY trading team has taken it lower ahead of the traditional US day session rebound which also pushes the S&P higher with it. For now the surge is missing but it won't be for longer - expect the traditional USDJPY ramp just before or as US stocks open for trading.

ISIS Holds Parade With Captured US Military Vehicles

As ISIS marches south over Iraq, produces movies, creates annual reports, and attacks dams; The Long War Journal reports The Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham's Ninewa Division continues to crank out images of its conquest of Mosul and the surrounding province. Earlier today, the Ninewa Division released photographs of its forces seizing control of several bases, displaying captured military hardware, and executing Iraqi soldiers. Then, the Ninewa Division published a set of photographs of a military parade in the city of Mosul. The photographs provide a glimpse of the ISIS' military strength in Mosul and the captured US-supplied Humvees, armored cars, and even artillery pieces are shown.

"The Gap Between Those With Money & Those With Knowledge Has Grown Catastrophic"

"The one unlimited resource we have on the planet is the human brain – the current strategy of 1% capitalism is failing because it is killing the Golden Goose at multiple levels. Unfortunately, the gap between those with money and power and those who actually know what they are talking about has grown catastrophic. The rich are surrounded by sycophants and pretenders whose continued employment demands that they not question the premises."

Today's Global Warming Propaganda Is Brought To You By...

“It’s going to get a lot hotter in the United States over the next 100 years, and worse going forward," notes a report cited by Bloomberg.The report, below, fearmongers the mutually assured destruction that will happen if something is not done right now about global warming (despite the implications being out to the year 2200) concluding... "The risks are much more perverse and cruel than we saw with the financial crisis, because they accumulate over time...a business-as-usual approach is actually radical risk-taking." Can you guess who sponsored the report and used those M.A.D. words?

Visualizing The Five Reasons To Own Gold

Following last night's 94-page extravaganza on gold, this infographic, part four in our 2014 Gold Series (part 1, part 2, & part 3 here), covers the five best reasons to own gold: 1) Gold helps investors diversify their portfolios; 2) Gold is a great store of value; 3) Gold helps protect against inflation and other risks; 4) Gold demand is driven by a growing east, while grades are dropping and new discoveries are more scarce; and 5) Gold stocks are as cheap as they have ever been, using the GDX as a proxy. The reasons to own gold have not changed since the peak in 2011.

Citi Warns US Equities Are Facing A Pullback

US equity indices are showing signs that a pullback may be developing, Citi's FX Technicals group notes, as the S&P 500 Index, the NASDAQ Composite Index and the Dow Industrials Index all posted bearish key days yesterday. A short-term correction on the order of 3%-6% may be developing on the back of this. The Dow Transports Index, which has been the leading US equity Index this year, has already been showing signs of stress as well. The VIX Index is also turning higher from low levels and should head up towards at least 14% if not 18% if the pullback in equities materializes.