US Treasury Curve Collapses To Dec 2008 Lows

The spread between the 30Y US Treasury yield and 2Y has plunged by 7.5bps this morning (as 2Y sells off and 30Y rallies post-Draghi) to 175bps. This is the flattest curve since Dec 2008 lows (at 172bps) which can only bode poorly for financials...

Jobless Claims Joke Chart Of The Day

Initial jobless claims tumbles to 259k (from a revised 277k) near 43 year lows, leaving the smoother 4-week average lower at 267.5k. What we find "odd" about this seasonally-adjusted data is that the employment components of both the Manufacturing and Services ISM data has completely collapsed in the last few months. So what sector of the economy is maintaining the illusion?

Bunds, Euro Tumble As Super Mario Sends Stocks, Credit Soaring

"Whatever it takes" has morphed to "throw everything at it and pray." In a bigger-than-expected bazooka, Mario Draghi sent EURUSD tumbling, Bund yields rising, and stock prices surging (along with considerable bond spread compression). Bank stocks are limit up in various regions but the real question is - what happens if this "doesn't work"?

For Deutsche Bank This Is "The Most Challenging Central Bank Meeting In Living Memory"

Is today's the most challenging central bank meeting in living memory? The reason we say this is that up until now virtually all meetings have rested on will they or won't they ease and if they do by how much? Even in a crisis central banks have generally been able to get bang for their buck by easing more than expected. However there seems to be more at stake for today's ECB get-together. It's the type of easing that matters.

Frontrunning: March 10

  • Pressure Is on Mario Draghi to Show ECB Has Tools to Boost Low Inflation (WSJ)
  • Euro dips as ECB sets sights on deeper negative rates (Reuters)
  • Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump (Reuters)
  • Irish Economy Expanded 7.8% in 2015, Fastest Pace Since 2000 (BBG)
  • Too Many Boats for Too Little Cargo Leaves Shippers High and Dry (BBG)

All Eyes On Draghi: Markets Unchanged, Poised To Pounce Or Plunge

Global stocks and U.S. equity futures are fractionally higher (unchanged really) this morning (despite China's historic NPL debt-for-equity proposal) as traders await the main event of the day: the ECB's 1:45pm CET announcement, more importantly what Mario Draghi will announce during the 2:30pm CET press conference, and most importantly, whether he will disappoint as he did in December or finally unleash the bazooka that the market has been desperately demanding.

Central Banks Are About To Leave Fiat Addicted Stock Markets In Agony

Many investors today are not very familiar with market history and tend to live only in the day-to-day mainstream narrative while watching little red and green graphs move up and down. This is not so much an issue in a relatively stable economic environment. The problem is, today we live in the most unstable economic conditions possible.

Keith Olbermann Unleashes On Donald Trump: "I Am Moving Out Of Your Building"

"Okay, Donnie, you win.  I’m moving out.  Not moving out of the country — not yet anyway. I’m merely moving out of one of New York’s many buildings slathered in equal portions with gratuitous gold and the name “Trump.” Nine largely happy years with an excellent staff and an excellent reputation (until recently, anyway) — but I’m out of here."

How To Trade Tomorrow's ECB Meeting

The European Central Bank promised in January to "review and reconsider" its monetary stance this week. The question, as BloombergBriefs notes, is not if policy makers will ease but how. Haruhiko Kuroda's humbling in FX markets shows what Mario Draghi is up against tomorrow: namely, that even the most forceful policy decisions can be overwhelmed by events, positioning, or sentiment. Draghi has a number of options (some more and some less priced in) but most crucially there two large gaps to be filled in European Stock indices - the question is which is filled first?