Hearing The Bernanke fiction that he is 100 percent certain he can stop hyperinflation was as reassuring as hearing his continued commitment to continue Quantitative Easing. I know hyperinflation is ugly. I know stopping this train wreck years ago would have been the correct thing to do. The fact is – we are beyond any fix. Things like cutting government spending will only increase unemployment. We are bankrupt when: What we take in with taxes doesn’t pay the bills. When we borrow and that and the taxes still don’t pay the bills. Now we counterfeit so we don’t default. Game over! I know re-valuing the dollar would have been faster and less painful. But the facts are that we have a professor who studied the Great Depression and if he doesn’t know that housing prices declined, or that there is massive inflation now, or that unemployment is at “depressionary” levels - then we have to realize that correcting what he messed up isn’t going to happen. The guy is either working for an elite few – or, more likely – he’s an economic imbecile.
The current divergence in the AUDJPY-ES pair is reminding us of the great divergences seen in the during the summer just after the temporary DE Shaw stat arb desk unwind threw every correlation pair out of whack for hours. And with the telecom and commodity subsectors of the CSI undergoing a drubbing, we are confident that the AUD, especially following the earlier lack of action by the RBA, will continue to face ongoing weakness. And sooner or later that means that dollar funded shorts (USDJPY/AUDUSD) which have been the primary source of purchasing power in the US market, will need to be unwound. In the meantime, a compression trade here seems quite attractive.
To all those who are considering buying the futures on the long-ago priced in news of the tax cut extension, we would like to caution that according to the state-run China Securities Journal (which is the same as prophet Jon Hilsenrath telling the great unwashed what the Printing God is about to do with near 99.9% accuracy), China will raise interest rates this weekend. Some additional color from Dow Jones: "Given the central bank set a precedent by raising interest rates right before the release of the consumer price index (previously), there's a 'sensitive policy window' before and after this weekend." If the hike is confirmed (and it is in line with our expectations, that China will hike first before it revalues the CNY any more) look for the greatest marginal credit bubble to promptly collapse, dragging down the US and EU with it, proving that all those who are preaching that Decoupling 2.0 is so different this time, are as always, merely Econ Ph.D.'s.
The latest from Reuters, on the late news that Obama will both extend Unemployment Insurance for 13 months, and extend the Bush tax cuts for 2 years:
- Obama: has reached a framework for compromise with Republicans to extend all Bush tax cuts for two years
- Obama: compromise also calls for extending jobless benefits for 13 months, and calls for 2% payroll tax cuts next year, and for extension of estate tax
- Obama: says compromise is an essential step on the road to economic recovery
- Obama: he is confident that Congress will ultimately ‘do the right thing’
We just hope that the prostituting administration will finally float the one proposal we have all been waiting for: free blow jobs for everyone in
perpetuity, funded by the Federal Reserve's monetization of the Sinking
From the WSJ: "White House proposes temporary payroll tax reduction. The 6.2% Social Security tax would drop to 4.2% for workers for one year." Unclear if this is on top of any additional Bush tax cut extensions. It is amazing that it took D.C. only 1 month to forget that the people are sick and tired of reckless deficit spending (today's debt: 13,833,512,000,000) and will vote out all corrupt idiots who merely pass the hot debt potato to the next generation.
One of the Fed's more arrogant former apparatchiks (of the "100% confidence" interval) Larry Meyer, currently at expert network Macroeconomic Advisors which is used by the likes of Pimco to get inside information on what the Fed will do at its upcoming meetings, appeared on CNBC earlier and attempted to school David Einhorn on "Economics 101." What ensued was yet another confirmation that these Ph.D's (a term we always use in the most pejorative, NC-17 context possible) who destroyed the world, have absolutely no idea what the hell they talk about, and make up bullshit scenarios on the fly. Luckily, it has gotten to a point where every incremental statement catches them in one lie or another. It has become grotesquely comic to watch their faces (as in Bernanke of 60 Minutes infamy) squirm as they realize that the end of the system they created and subsequently destroyed, is near.
The inevitable moment for the Wikileaks founder has arrived: the Telegraph is reporting that Julian Assange will hand himself in to police - possibly as early as Tuesday - after a fresh European Arrest Warrant was issued by the Swedish authorities. "Mr Assange is expected to voluntarily attend a police station within the next 24 hours, and will then appear in a magistrates’ court. He is wanted over allegations of sexual assault in Sweden." We hope this means the imminent release of the decyprion key of the torrent file (which can be downloaded here) which is supposed to be Assange's insurance policy. On the other hand, it could an insurance policy on his life, not his freedom so well we monitor.
Fresh all time nominal high in spot gold: $1,427.01
Flash Dash In Silver Mini Contracts On Volume Surge Breaks $30 Stops, Takes Metal Firmly Above ResistanceSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/06/2010 - 16:35
As the chart below shows something just snapped in Mini Silver several minutes ago, which may have been the proverbial pseudo violent break of the JPM barrier. As the price briefly shot up to well over $30.60 on just under 150 contracts, leading to a $0.30 differential with the large silver contract, an arbitrage which may put the NYSE Liffe in hot water with quite a few clients. Will this third attempt to take out the key $30 barrier prove to be the decisive one?
Breaking news per Reuters: "Lawyer for WikiLeak's Julian Assange says arranging to meet police by consent." Whether this means an arrest is imminent we hope to find out shortly. And just this out from NBC: Julian Assange's attorney says a place and time are being negotiated for a meeting with Scotland Yard.
In this week's Straight Talk episode, Chris Martenon interviews Charles Hugh Smith, both very insightful individuals who have repeatedly appeared on the pages of Zero Hedge with unique and always original perspectives. Of all issues that dominate CHS' outlook on the economy, society and politics, the top two items that keep Smith up at night are "demographics and Peak Oil...which cannot be massaged away by policy tweaks or financial engineering." Much more in the enclosed interview.
Earlier today it was announced that in lieu of a physical arrest, Julian Assange is currently undergoing a liquidity one, after earlier today first Swiss NZZ and subsequently the WSJ reported that the Australian's funds in Swiss PostFinance bank have been frozen: "In a statement Monday, WikiLeaks said there was €31,000 in the PostFinance account, belonging to the defense fund and to Mr. Assange personally. WikiLeaks described this money as "frozen." But €31k may be a small price to pay knowing that very soon Assange will most likely succeed Ben Bernanke as the magazine's Person of the Year.
It is confirmed: last week's incursion by the ECB in buying any and all offered Irish and Portuguese bonds is now in the history books. As the ECB reports, "in the week from Monday 29 November to Friday 3 December were of a volume of EUR 1,965 million, the rounded settled amount - and the intended amount for absorption accordingly - increased to EUR 69 billion. The transactions made between Wednesday 1 December and Friday 3 December have, with few exceptions, not yet settled and hence are not reflected in this figure." In other words, the bulk of the peripheral bond buying is not even included, and we will share the final tally with readers next Sunday night. We fully expect the amount for the week ended December 13 to be another all time record. In the meantime, the chart below shows all of the recent purchases under the ECB's SMP (aka sterilized open market monetization) program. As an aside, the biggest amount monetized occurred in the first week of the program's launch when the ECB monetized €16.5 billion.
Now that Tim Geithner has put the bond issuance machinery on autopilot, and all future bond auctions will be eventually monetized by Bernanke (and then some: after all a fiscally united Europe is expected to start bond issuance soon), he has decided to branch out into the next best thing to destroying the once greatest country in the world - blogging. And, sure enough, that titanic scion of the blogging world, Barry Ritholtz takes some time away from his busy schedule which lately involves a daily stint on CNBC's Fast Money, to share some brilliant insights with Tim Geithner on how to create a killer blog. We present this without commentary, because after one reads such words, and what can one say but... Ritholtz.
Brian Sack Sneaks A Fast One: 20% Of Today's Long-End POMO Monetization Is 30 Year Auctioned Off Last MonthSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/06/2010 - 14:13
After in the last two POMOs Brian Sack put the most recently issued bond on the exclusion list, today, as part of today's micro $2.044 billion long-end (2028-2040) POMO, the PPT head tried to sneak a fast one, after the second most monetized issue ended up being the QL5 of 11/15/2040, which just happens to be the bond auctioned off less than a month ago (November 10). This amounts to 2.6% of the entire $16 billion auction. We are confident that before all is said and done, not only will the 35% SOMA limit be raised on this 30 year CUSIP, but the Fed will be the proud owner of well over half of any and all recently issued long-end bonds.