Oil Dumps'n'Pumps Despite Crude, Gasoline Inventories Surge

Crude has soared back above $31 as it seems a new bullish narrative around seasonally high crude refining has sparked dreams of demand...

After initial weakness, crude prices have rallied since last night's across the board inventory build reported by API (especially gasoline). Against headline expectations of a 3.8mm build, DOE reported a huge 7.8mm rise with Gasoline also surging 5.9mm barrels. The overnight ramp gains on OPEC rumors have been erased and WTI is back below $30.

Gold Surges Above Key Technical Level

With the dollar tumbling and Dudley and Kuroda exposed as impotent, investors are rotating to the safety of not Biotechs but Bullion and Bonds. Gold just pushed above $1135 to 3-month highs, breaking above its crucial 200-day moving-average...

Manufacturing Recession Spills Over Into Services After Dismal PMI, ISM Data

In the words of Markit's chief economist, "the US upturn has lost substantial momentum over the past two months," as the golden child of any current bullish narrative - the Services economy - drops to its weakest since October 2013 (PMI 53.2, missing expectations). Plunging backlogs suggest hiring will slow notably and then ISM Services hit at a 23-month low, plunging back towards manufacturing's weakness, with employmenmt at its weakest sicne April 2014 and unadjusted new orders at their weakest since Jan 2014.

Germany Unveils "Cash Controls" Push: Ban Transactions Over €5,000, €500 Euro Note

On Tuesday we got the latest evidence that officials across the globe are preparing to institute a cashless “utopia” when Handelsblatt reported (in a piece called "The Death of Cash") that the Social Democrats - the junior partner in Angela Merkel’s coalition government - have proposed a €5,000 limit on cash transactions and the elimination of the €500 note. Berlin is using a familiar scapegoat to justify the plan: the need to fight "terrorists" and “foreign criminals."

Futures Jump After Bill Dudley Hints At Fed "Policy Error", Warns Of "Significant Consequences" From Strong Dollar

"A weakening of the global economy accompanied by further appreciation in an already strong dollar could also have "significant consequences." I read that as saying we're acknowledging that things have happened in financial markets and in the flow of the economic data that may be in the process of altering the outlook for growth and the risk to the outlook for growth going forward."

- Bill Dudley

Why We Won't Have A "Lehman Moment" In The 2016 Crash

Issuing more credit will only make the 2016 crash worse. Trying to stop the current crash with more credit and lower interest rates is like sending the cavalry on suicide charges against entrenched machine guns, artillery and tanks. The coming financial slaughter will be as senseless, wasteful and ineffective as any suicide attack in the Great War.

Bill Gross Trolls "Addled, Impotent" Central Bankers, Asks "How's It Workin' For Ya?"

"Why after several decades of 0% rates has the Japanese economy failed to respond? Why has the U.S. only averaged 2% real growth since the end of the Great Recession? “How’s it workin’ for ya?” – would be a curt, logical summary of the impotency of low interest rates to generate acceptable economic growth worldwide. "

The Dollar Is Getting Hammered, Gold Jumps

It appears The ADP Employment report was not good enough to support fed rate-hikes as across the majors, traders are selling USDs... Gold is also surging. It appears someone is betting large that this week's payroll data will be weak...

ADP Employment Growth Tumbles From Miraculous December Bounce

Following December's miraculous surge in employment (to the biggest improvement in a year), ADP Employment tumbled back a more "normal" 205k in January (stilll beating expectations of 195k). Services dominated (192k vs 13k for goods). Once again manufacturing disappoints with no change in employment as large business hiring slows notably.

Frontrunning: February 3

  • Oil lifts stocks off lows, yen and low-risk debt in favor (Reuters)
  • Yes, this agaim: Oil gains after Russia says open to talking with OPEC (Reuters)
  • More forecasts: Oil Prices Could Jump 50% by the End of 2016 (BBG)
  • New Risks for Trump After Iowa Loss (WSJ)
  • Yuan Gap Widens Again as Depreciation Bets Swamp PBOC Fightback (BBG)

Europe Falls, U.S. Futures Rise As Oil Halts Two-Day Plunge

While the biggest news of the night had nothing to do with either oil or China, all that mattered to US equity futures trading also was oil and China, and since WTI managed to rebound modestly from their biggest 2-day drop in years, rising back over $30, and with China falling only 0.4% overnight after the National Team made a rare, for 2016, appearance and pushed stocks to close at the day's high, US E-minis were able to rebound from overnight lows in the mid-1880s, and levitate above 1900. Whether they sustain this level remains to be seen.

The Coming Revaluation Of Gold

The discipline of gold as Reserves backing currency at a revalued price will restore order to a world that has refused to adopt the necessary discipline until forced to do so in the desperate situation now evolving, where there will be no other alternative but to accept the detested fiscal and financial discipline imposed by gold.

Retail Apocalypse: 2016 Brings Empty Shelves And Store Closings All Across America

Major retailers in the United States are shutting down hundreds of stores, and shoppers are reporting alarmingly bare shelves in many retail locations that are still open all over the country.  It appears that the retail apocalypse that made so many headlines in 2015 has gone to an entirely new level as we enter 2016.