"Kept Afloat With Nothing But Happy Thoughts"

The Fed stimulates absolutely nothing but the media’s descriptions of it and the various economists and their models that depend solely on them being successful in doing so. If recessions are emotional and irrational pessimism as the monetary textbooks believe, then QE and ZIRP are just right sort of “happy pills” to push emotions back to the “right” direction. Is it any wonder the economy is in danger of sinking toward catastrophic failure?

Someone Finally Read Obama's Secret Trade Deal And Admits The TPP "Will Damage This Nation"

"The public criticisms of the TPP have been vague. That’s by design—anyone who has read the text of the agreement could be jailed for disclosing its contents. I’ve actually read the TPP text provided to the government’s own advisors, and I’ve given the president an earful about how this trade deal will damage this nation. But I can’t share my criticisms with you. I can tell you that Elizabeth Warren is right about her criticism of the trade deal. We should be very concerned about what's hidden in this trade deal—and particularly how the Obama administration is keeping information secret even from those of us who are supposed to provide advice."

"Obama's Strategy Against ISIS Is In Ruins"

Over the weekend, a major shift in the balance of power in Iraq took place when Islamic State forces seized the key Iraqi state of Ramadi.  It took barely one day for the neoconservative cries for an aggressive and powerful response when overnight Kimberly Kagan's hawkish think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, came out with its assessment which was at least partially right that "Obama's strategy against the Islamic State in ruins not only in Iraq but also throughout the Muslim world."

How GDP Metrics Distort Our View of the Economy

GDP purports to measure economic activity while largely divorcing itself from the quality, profitability, depth, breadth, improvement, advancement, and rationalization of goods and services provided. Stated alternatively, GDP fails to accurately assess the value of goods and services provided or estimate a society’s standard of living. It is a ruler with irregular hash marks and a clock with erratic ticks. Simply put, GDP is designed to advance the Keynesian agenda... no matter what.

Make College Free By Taxing Stock Trades, Dem Presidential Candidate Says

"Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders wants to take from the rich in order to make public college tuition-free for everyone else. On Tuesday, the Vermont senator will hold a press conference in the nation's capital at which he will introduce a plan to use a so-called Robin Hood tax on stock transactions to fund tuition at four-year public colleges and universities," Bloomberg reports.

The Untied State Of America

"Yes, The Fed is feeding inequality; but it has to keep rates low for the good of the economy" - Robert Reich

Are Stocks & Bonds Due For A "Generational" 75% Crash?

From the point of view of history, a reversion to generational lows is inevitable, and a valuation level around 50% of GDP for stocks is a fair target. This implies a 75% decline in both stocks and bonds within the next decade, if not sooner.

YHOO Tumbles After BABA Spinoff Faces IRS Uncertainty

Around 1537ET YHOO shares began a flash-crash-like free-fall with ascending volume on an accelerating plunge in price. BABA did not snap until 1544ET when it cracked lower and the arbs desparately tried to keep the two firms tied together somehow. Initial chatter was import tariff news from China (which may have explained the huge divergence between the two) but soon after Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is considering a rule change that might complicate YHOO efforts to exit its BAB stake 'efficiently'.

Apply Now: Saudi Arabia Is Hiring 8 Executioners

If you happen to be particularly adept at wielding a sword and believe strongly that stiff penalties for crime play an important role in deterring future misdeeds, you might consider joining Saudi Arabia’s Ministry Of Civil Service as a “Perpetrator Of Retribution.”

The Looming Russell Rebalance – What You Need To Know

With over $4 trillion invested in Russell index-linked products, this year’s rebalance combined with the “Will they/won’t they” Fed rate increase debate could make for an eventful start to summer.

The Real Reason Draghi Is Front-Loading Q€ (In 1 'Disappointing' Chart)

When US Macro data started to crumble after QE3 ended last year, and with it US equities, The Fed unleashed Jim Bullard to suggest that QE4 was possible if things deteriorated... and in that moment, everything broke. The last few months have seen expectations of a European recovery dashed as macro data has disappointed greatly - now weaker on the year. So what is Draghi to do? Easy - Fed playbook: unleash Benoit Coeure to suggest moar QE sooner and maintain the illusion of future success in stock prices (even as data collapses)...

How To Spot Groupthink Among Economists

  • A tendency to examine too few alternatives; A lack of critical assessment of each other’s ideas;
  • A high degree of selectivity in information gathering; A lack of contingency plans;
  • Poor decisions are often rationalised; The group has an illusion of invulnerability and shared morality;
  • True feelings and beliefs are suppressed; An illusion of unanimity is maintained;
  • Mind guards (essentially information sentinels) may be appointed to protect the group from negative information.

Recession Check: Updating The Indicators

The largest problem with the data sets below is that they are all subject to large historical revisions. This is why the NBER is ALWAYS well after the fact in pronouncing the start and end of recessions in the U.S. economy. Given the ongoing interventions from the Federal Reserve and the current administration, it is likely that many of the statistics, and seasonal adjustment metrics, have been skewed in recent years. In the quarters ahead it is likely that we could see rather sharp adjustments to historical data which may suggest the economy has been far weaker than headline statistics have suggested.

State Department To Release Hillary Emails... In January 2016!

The good news: A federal judge on Tuesday ordered the U.S. State Department to produce a schedule for the release of emails that Hillary Clinton sent and received while she was secretary of state, a legal move that could complicate her presidential campaign.

The other news: The State Department is proposing a deadline of January 2016 to complete its review...

You just can't make this up!