Wholesale Trade Data Suggest Manufacturing Recession Spreading To Entire Economy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 - 10:11
The good news - wholesale inventories are being worked off (falling 0.3% MoM in November - biggest drop since May 2013). The bad news - inventories are being worked off (crushing Q4 GDP hopes and Fed forecasts). The ugly news - Wholesale sales collapsed 1.0% MoM - the biggest drop in a year (leaving the spread between sales and inventories at a record high). The ugliest data of all - inventories-to-sales spiked to 1.32x - (the highest since 2008's crisis recession and as high as the worst in the 2001 recession!)
Multiple Jobholders Surge To Highest Since August 2008
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 - 09:23
As we noted earlier, while the headline payrolls print blew away consensus estimate, printing above the highest expectations, there was a rather unpleasant number in the data: nominal average hourly wages actually dipped by 1 cent to $25.24. What caused this? There are three reasons.
December Jobs Soar by 292K, Smash Expectations But Average Wages Post First Drop Since 2014
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 - 08:40
As we noted in the jobs preview, only a super strong number had any chance of prompting a market reaction, and sure enough, the just announced December print of +292,000 smashed expectations of +200K, surging from last month's upward revised 252K. So time for another rate hike, right? Not so fast: as usual, the fly in the ointment was a well-familiar one: wages simply did not grow, and with Wall Street expecting a 0.2% increase in average hourly wages, in December not only was there no wage growth, but in fact, average hourly earnings posted a tiny decline from $25.25 to $25.24.
RBS: "This Is Simply The Worst Week We Had In Recent History... After Too Much Policy Kool-aid"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 - 08:20
This week is simply the worst we had in recent history for markets, RBS exclaims, the worst ever start to the year for The Dow, the worst since 1999 for S&P and the second-worst for credit since 2008. Worst still is, they think there’s more weakness ahead and that many fundamental risks will continue to haunt markets. Why? Simple! Investors drank too much policy kool-aid last year.
"The Least Important Payrolls Report In A While": What Wall Street Expects
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 - 08:08
Now that the Fed has commenced its rate hike cycle, the jobs report suddenly takes on far less significance because only a massively "outlier" print will have an impact on Fed thinking, thinking which so far appears undented despite a raging manufacturing recession across the US. This means that the December jobs could be the "most important ever" only in retrospect.
Saudi Aramco Confirms "World's Most Valuable Company" May Go Public
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 - 07:54
"Saudi Aramco confirms that it has been studying various options to allow broad public participation in its equity through the listing in the capital markets of an appropriate percentage of the Company’s shares and/or the listing of a bundle its downstream subsidiaries."
Frontrunning: January 8
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 - 07:49- U.S. jobs market seen fairly healthy despite slowing economy (Reuters)
- China State Funds Said to Buy More Shares After Market Rout (BBG)
- Global Stocks Gain Some Respite (WSJ)
- U.S. Jobs Data Take on Added Importance With Markets in Turmoil (BBG)
- GOP Health Plans Are Works in Progress (WSJ)
- For economy czar of crisis-hit Venezuela, inflation 'does not exist' (Reuters)
Markets Spooked After China Central Bank Announces More Rate Liberalization, Yuan Internationalization
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 - 07:25
U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES PAIR GAINS SLIGHTLY AFTER CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK SAYS IT WILL FURTHER LIBERALIZE INTEREST RATES - RTRS
Translated: even more devaluation + even less intervention = bad for risk.
US Futures Lose Overnight Gains; Dax Back Under 10,000 As Chinese Market Bailout Fizzles
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 - 06:56
The half-life of the latest "market supporting" intervention by the Chinese government: just about 12 hours.
Internal War Is Now On The Horizon For America
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2016 - 22:30
As our situation in this country becomes more precarious, there are going to be far more flashpoints than anyone will be able to keep track of. It is inevitable that a fight between corrupt elements of the U.S. government and regular people will erupt.If internationalists were to get their way fully with the world and future historians write their analysis from a globalist perspective of the defunct American nation, they will probably say simply that our collapse was brought about by our own incompetence - that we were our own worst enemy. Yes, they would treat America as a cliché. They will of course leave out the destructive influences and engineered disasters of elitists, that would just complicate the narrative. My hope is that we do not prove these future historians correct, and that they won’t have an opportunity to exist.
Martin Shkreli Secures Bail With $45 Million E*Trade Account, Demands Respect From Wu-Tang Clan
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2016 - 22:00
“I bought the most expensive album in the history of mankind and RZA is talking shit behind my back and online in plain sight. If I hand you $2 million, fucking show me some respect.”
2016: Oil Limits & The End Of The Debt Supercycle
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2016 - 21:30
The problem of reaching limits in a finite world manifests itself in an unexpected way: slowing wage growth for non-elite workers. Lower wages mean that these workers become less able to afford the output of the system. These problems first lead to commodity oversupply and very low commodity prices. Eventually these problems lead to falling asset prices and widespread debt defaults. These problems are the opposite of what many expect, namely oil shortages and high prices. This strange situation exists because the economy is a networked system. Feedback loops in a networked system don’t necessarily work in the way people expect.
"The Jihadists Will Attack Europe": Leaked Phone Call Shows Gaddafi Warned Tony Blair Of Terror Attacks
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2016 - 21:00
"They keep saying things like Mohammed is the prophet. Similar to Bin Laden. They are paving the way for him in North Africa."
The "Monsters" Unmasked: Cologne Police Admit "Most Of The Attackers Were Refugees"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2016 - 20:30
While previously there was some ambiguity with regard to who actually perpetrated the attacks which allegedly unfolded in Cologne on New Year's Eve, authorities are now sure that "most" of those involved were "freshly traveled asylum seekers." From Die Welt: "Primarily it was the most Arab perpetrators to sexual offenses or, to put it from their point of view to their sexual amusement. A group of men circling a female victim, closes it and takes on the woman."
Russell Napier Explains How The Decline Of The Yuan Destroys Belief In Central Banking
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2016 - 20:28
If you had not noticed, 2016 has begun with gold and the USD rising simultaneously. This is different and important. This is very positive for gold and very bad for the world...
