Thoughts On The Intermediate Trend And On An Excess-Liquidity Driven Market, By Claasen Research

Our current market is also not driven by typical business growth. Yes, the percent returns
of fundamental valuations are up from last year’s very deep trough, but still far shy of past years
and the levels needed to support employment growth. (The Fed is not keeping rates low for
entertainment purposes.)
The gorilla in the room is the Federal Reserve. We all know this cyclical bull market is
liquidity driven. The unprecedented level of U.S. and global liquidity pumped into the economy
make this cyclical bull market “different” than the bull markets that ended in 1929, 1968, 1987,
2000 or even 2007. As the dissenting FOMC Governor Thomas Hoenig is trying to warn,
somehow somewhere, excess liquidity always finds its way into the markets. We have seen this in
Japan since 1993 as each cyclical bull market is fueled by a new round of quantitative easing, then
comes to an abrupt halt. The same can said for China’s Shanghai Index, which advanced 108%
from October ’08 to August ’09.

Erik Nielsen's Update On Greece

Since we feel there is little need to post on the Greek "update" as we don't believe anything new has happened or anything has been resovled, we will instead provide that from Goldman's Erik Nielsen: "With the May liquidity crisis now practically dealt with, here are the risks for the rest of 2010 and 2011 (and beyond) as I see them: (1) Implementation of the program in the face of a social unrest; (2) the likely need for further adjustments when/if GDP doesn’t respond as expected; and (3) European approval of the second phase of their part of the package (which will emerge in their fiscal bills for the next two years.)"

Taibbi On Goldman: Part Deux

"CNBC's house blowhard, Charlie Gasparino, laughed at the "securities fraud" line, saying, "Try proving that one." The Atlantic's online Randian cyber-shill, Megan McArdle, said Rolling Stone had "absurdly" accused Goldman of committing a crime, arguing that "Goldman's customers for CDOs are not little grannies who think a bond coupon is what you use to buy denture glue." Former Wall Street Journal reporter Heidi Moore hilariously pointed out that Goldman wasn't the only one betting against the housing market, citing the short-selling success of – you guessed it – John Paulson as evidence that Goldman shouldn't be singled out.

The truth is that what Goldman is alleged to have done in this SEC case is even worse than what all these assholes laughed at us for talking about last year." Matt Taibbi

Atlanta Fed's Former President Jack Guynn Is The Original Housing Crash Prophet; Greenspan Was A CFTC COT Contrarian

As we were perusing the just declassified full 2004 FOMC transcripts, our attention was caught by two specific things in the December 14 uber-grouthink session. First, the original housing prophet is not Hoenig, not Lacker, and certainly no other Fed member: it is former Atlanta Fed president Jack Guynn, who prudently got out of dodge on October 1, 2006. Guynn was the first to point out, in the long ago days of 2004, that Fed policy could be leading to a massive housing bubble. Good thing the Maestro was more concerned about his misplaced dentures than to listen to voices of reason at the Eccles building. Yet speaking of the Maestro, we catch an amusing anecdote, in which it becomes obvious that none other than the Fed Chairman looks at the CFTC's Commitment of Traders reports to get an indication as to what may or may not happen to the relative strength of the dollar. When one considers this fact, and juxtaposes it with observation that the Fed runs the formerly free world, does it imminently follow that the people in charge are not brilliantly scheming and conspiratorial, but merely very, very, very dumb?

Presenting The Upcoming Bestseller: Quantitative Ponzinomics For Dummies

Soon appearing on the Bernie Madoff Book to the Month club.

Attempt To Blow Up Heart Of Times Square Fails After Home Made Car Bomb Fizzles

Last night just after 6 pm a home made car bomb, containing 3 propane tanks and 2 containers of gasoline, electrical wires, black powder and some sort of timing device, put in a green VIN-less Nissan Pathfinder, situated on the corner of 45th and Broadway, was prevented from killing numerous people in the heart of Times Square, on 45th and Broadway. According to a hotdog vendor eye witness account, quoted by CNN, the car had filled with smoke and actually exploded, however the explosion was subdued. At that point a bomb squad appeared and managed to diffuse the bomb. The car bore license plates registered to a Connecticut-based Ford F-150. Mayor Bloomberg rushed back to New York from Washington and was quoted as saying: "We are very lucky that we avoided what could have been a very deadly event. We have no idea who did this or why.” It is unclear whether the organizers of the terrorist attempt were foreign-based or domestic. Looks like Goldman Sachs and a bankrupt Greece are finally going to be dropped from the front page, for at least a few hours. And, as always, nothing like a "failed terror attempt" as a cohesive force to consolidate an increasingly polarized population.

Greek Tax Avoidance 101: Cover Your Swimming Pool With A Tarp, Fool A Satellite

No photos or videos of Greek street riots, or burning Athens policemen here. With all the serious discourse over Greek bankruptcy and what not, the general public sometimes ignores the levity of the broader comedy that has brought us here in the first place, i.e. that the Greek government simply sucks at collecting taxes. And no matter how many decrees from above come, this will not change. Case in point: the Guardian reports about the latest tax collection, and immediate ensuing tax avoidance scheme implemented by the Greek government and the Greek wealthy, essentially includes the usage of Google Earth to track those who have swimming pools, cross indexing it with tax collections by address, and catching perpetrators. The loophole - green tarps to fool Google. In other words, good luck IMF.