Guest Post: The End Of The Beginning
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 - 19:58"If you had read “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly” by Reinhart & Rogoff,
none of the current alarm over Greece’s debt situation would come as any surprise. Indeed the book
shows that Greece has been in default roughly one out of every two years since it first gained
independence in the nineteenth century. However, it is never knowable
in advance at what exact moment the tipping point is reached. Today, the government of Greece is burdened with approximately €275 billion of debt, equating to
115% of GDP, are running a nearly 14% budget deficit for
2009, [Eurostat, April 2010] and S&P has downgraded
their debt to BB+/B - junk status! Up until March, the
world bond markets had taken a remarkably sanguine
view of this situation. In January, the Greeks sold €8
billion worth of bonds at a rather high (historically)
6.25%, while there was demand for €25 billion. But
shortly afterward, the situation deteriorated rapidly." Oisin Zimmermann
- Comments: 29
- Reads: 11,152
Greek Tax Avoidance 101: Cover Your Swimming Pool With A Tarp, Fool A Satellite
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 - 17:12No photos or videos of Greek street riots, or burning Athens policemen here. With all the serious discourse over Greek bankruptcy and what not, the general public sometimes ignores the levity of the broader comedy that has brought us here in the first place, i.e. that the Greek government simply sucks at collecting taxes. And no matter how many decrees from above come, this will not change. Case in point: the Guardian reports about the latest tax collection, and immediate ensuing tax avoidance scheme implemented by the Greek government and the Greek wealthy, essentially includes the usage of Google Earth to track those who have swimming pools, cross indexing it with tax collections by address, and catching perpetrators. The loophole - green tarps to fool Google. In other words, good luck IMF.
- Comments: 44
- Reads: 10,656
Greece Has Hired Lazard For Restructuring Advice
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 - 14:48EuroWeek magazine reports that Greece has hired Lazard in an advisory capacity: it is not a stretch to assume that this is in connection with a potential, and some say inevitable, bankruptcy... unless the country is really serious about procuring a stalking horse distressed M&A bidder for Santorini. We also note that DebtWire has yet to report on this development: looks like the FT is really starting to slip. It would not be a stretch to see why Greece and Lazard are on good terms: after Greece basically put all banks on the kleptocrata non grata list, the pseudo-French company seems like a legitimated candidate (not to mention that France will fail first should Greece default). Additionally, in March 2009 the firm advised the Hellenic Government on the sale of various Olympic Airlines assets to Marfin. Lazard is also no stranger to sovereign reorg, having worked with Nicaragua, Ecuador and Cote d'Ivoire on various restructuring assignments. However, while those deals were a walk in the park, Jim Millstein and and new (and critical) addition Felix Rohatyn will find Greece, where 80% of the population does not want a bailout and in fact is rooting for a default, a much tougher nut to crack.
- Comments: 25
- Reads: 5,503
Guest Post: Dropping Acid in Disneyland: Thoughts on the New Normal
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 - 14:02The boom and bust cycles of the new normal (as it wishes to be called) can be characterized. This characterization provides clues about the nature of its endgame and progress toward that end.
- Economic growth fueled by easy monetary policy leads to excessive investment in specific assets (bubbles), resulting in more extreme boom and bust cycles.
- Government policies to regulate the cycles lead to further crises that impact higher levels of capital structure.
- In particular, very steep yield curves result in a generalized carry trade.
- Equity valuations always get smashed in a crash. However, in the new normal the top of the corporate capital structure is not as immunized as it has been.
- The next to get smashed? Sovereign credit.
- The Endgame? The United States lives within their means, or U.S. t-bills get hammered.
- Comments: 34
- Reads: 4,536
More Hypocrisy From Lloyd Blankfein On Charlie Rose
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 - 10:41
Just because Goldman refuses to get it, and wishes to inflict even more pain on itself with more and more public appearances, here is Lloyd on Charlie Rose last night. More of the same: "We did well because we had the disciplined hedging [on housing]."Paraphrase: "Thank you Paulson for letting us steal your idea and have our prop book go $10 billion short two months before HSBC and New Century went tits up. Also thank you for reminding us to short hundreds of millions worth of Bear stock." Also, the amount of money put into Goldman by the government was not important for us. Ok Lloyd, please refund all the $2 billion in CDS profits you made by shorting AIG immediately. And again Lloyd blatantly misrepresents the truth, by saying that doing away with prop trading would only cost the firm 10% of the firm's revenue (so why the massive fight against the Volcker rule?). Forget all this market maker, liquidity provider generic fallback bs and mumbo jumbo. How about some disclosure on just how you classify prop trading Lloyd? Because something tells us that at least 50% of your flow and correlation desk is purely Prop (and certainly serves to bolster prop profits instead of putting clients "first" as we have disclosed about 10 times in the past week alone), as the 901 pages in Goldman discovery make only all too obvious (we will post on that soon). Hey Lloyd, here's an idea - how about instituting P&L stop limits on all your OTC FICC prop trades just like RBS? Oh yes, we'll go there... and in much more detail. Soon.
- Comments: 166
- Reads: 6,538
DOJ Antitrust Division Considering Launching Investigation Into Silver Market Manipulation By JPM
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 - 09:36Eric King reports the breaking news that in a letter obtained by Ted Butler, the DOJ's Antitrust department is considering launching an investigation into silver market manipulation by JP Morgan. Should an announcement of a full formal probe of manipulation by JPM follow, it would be tantamount to a confirmation of what numerous individuals have been claiming over the years, that JP Morgan, the LBMA, the CFTC, various banks, and even that kindly old grandpa who was so much against derivatives except when he was about to lose money as a result of regulation that he is spending the whole weekend telling his investors in Omaha to run, not walk, to Borsheim's, and buy all their massively overpriced trinkets (you can't be a quadrillionaire without first being a trillionaire), are nothing but a borderline criminal cabal that traffics in wealth extraction courtesy of a few monopolist players. As Eric King discloses in its letter the Anti-Trust division announces that "it will carefully consider the issue of silver market manipulation by JP Morgan and other traders. Generally the CFTC investigates these types of market manipulations. However, the suggestion that JPMorgan Chase may be signaling other traders, warrants further analysis. The DOJ will carefully consider the issue you raise, and you can be assured that if we conclude that silver traders have engaged in anti-competitive conduct, we will take appropriate enforcement action."
- Comments: 86
- Reads: 11,666
Weekly Chartology
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 - 08:21Goldman may have hit the iceberg, but at least David Kostin keeps on playing the groupthink music which always validates Farrell's rule #9. "Portfolio managers with whom we met on the West Coast this week expressed strong bullishness on the near-term direction of US equities and several had earnings estimates for 2010 and 2011 that were substantially above both our and bottom-up consensus forecasts." In other words everyone is convinced that the Fed will never regain its monetary independence and keep ZIRP at least until Obama's second presidential campaign.
- Comments: 15
- Reads: 3,840
Weekly Credit Summary: April 30
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2010 - 03:50Spreads were decidedly wider this week with HY notably underperforming IG but equity underperforming credit in general. US HY underperformance was the standout in credit markets with Europe ending very marginally wider in corporates as we suspect some of the technicals impacting index compression in the US started to unwind as risk appetites shrank.
- Comments: 6
- Reads: 1,695
Radio Zero: Sick Leave
Submitted by Zero Hedge on 05/01/2010 - 03:42
Having now returned from extended sick leave and coming to you from within her digitally wired ISOPORT™ (the CDC approved portable, negative pressure isolation enclosure in which she now resides full-time) Marla Singer is pleased to share with you:
- A small but finite risk of exposure to plague in the form of multi-drug resistant Streptococcus Pneumoniae
- The lingering side effects of ongoing and massive doses of vancomycin and linezoli (including altered taste perception- brown sugar Pop Tarts™ now taste like foie gras to her, though cornflakes apparently remain as bland as ever)
- A large supply of Laudanum painstakingly hoarded from the 19th century medical facilities in which she was imprisoned housed and soon to be available for resale through the Zero Hedge Store (Act now! Supplies are limited!)
- A (hopefully) temporary loss of speech (induced by repeated intubation)
- Advanced, multi-lingual electronic speech synthesizer with integrated wheelchair (one beep for "yes," two beeps for "no")
- Several advance copies of her new book: The Complete Guide to Defrauding ObamaCare (with an introduction by Dick Fuld)
Oh, and
- 12 hours of Radio Zero (brought to you by the complete lack of circadian rhythm long hospital stays apparently induce)
Join us around... well, around now.
Connection details: http://radio.cl.zerohedge.com
Or just connect direct: http://72.13.86.66:8000/listen.pls
- Comments: 51
- Reads: 2,607
Just A Reminder
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2010 - 17:58"In case politicians don't understand what's at stake, the market kindly gave them a little reminder with a nasty close for equities today. In the early morning it seemed people were quite willing to ignore GS's misfortunes in its dealings with the ever more schizophrenic government. Washington simply cannot understand why it can't destroy speculation and leverage yet keep the equity market up, as it is the only economic driver in the US since easy credit is no longer available. Tough indeed: since nothing or close to nothing is manufactured in the US we need our upper class's investments to skyrocket so it is inclined to spend thereby providing service jobs. US politicians have a lot of work on their plate with the financial reform. Any measures too drastic in terms of balance sheet reduction will be tough on financial assets and curb lending, and any measures to curb speculation on commodities will hit this asset class hard and the commodity stocks along with them (miners are amongst leaders in US equities). European politicians have one fine mess to sort as well and money markets are pricing in higher Libor and funding difficulties ahead already. Without expanding too much on the subject, there is no one I would like less to depend on to make the right decisions." Nic Lenoir
- Comments: 131
- Reads: 8,161
Treasury Redeems A Gargantuan $643 Billion In Treasuries In April
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2010 - 17:33A week ago we were practically speechless when we showed that the Treasury had redeemed nearly $494 billion in Bills in April. A truly stunning number and an indication of just how much cash the Treasury needs to have access to to keep rolling its ridiculously short average maturity debt load. Today we stand even more speechless: according to today's DTS, the Treasury has now redeemed $596 billion in Bills in Aprils: an all time world record, even when accounting for the Fed's steroid abuse period of SFP 1 (we are currently in the second iteration). Add $47 billion in Notes and there are almost $650 billion in redemptions. This number is simply ridiculous. Forget the interest expense: this ever increasing roll is the number one danger to the US and world economy. Should the Treasury be unable to keep issuing shorter and shorter dated debt (and it already is skirting away from even the belly of the curve), it is for all intents and purposes game over.
- Comments: 235
- Reads: 22,057
Net Euro Shorts Spike, Regain Record Highs, As Dollar Longs Surge To Highest Since August 2008
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2010 - 17:08
This week's risk aversion trade is nowhere more evident than in the spike of Net eureo shorts for the week ended April 27, as reported by the CFTC. After having retreated to as low as 66k two weeks ago, the net speculative position in the european currency has surged, hitting record resistance in the 97k range. (see chart below). And even as Europe fears drove speculators to abandon the euro, the one currency which is sitting in no man's land, the USD, this week saw net longs rise to the highest value since August of 2008. Feel free to oull up a chart fo the EURUDF pair and see when the last time it was preparing to blow out so wide was,
- Comments: 20
- Reads: 3,684
Distribution And Rotation, aka Sell Off
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2010 - 16:21The sectors that brought us to the ridiculous highs are getting sold off. The financial sector now faces a choice between offering a sacrificial lamb or becoming a regulated utility. We hope it opts for the first (we have a few candidates in mind), as the latter will likely lead to the prompt realization that we never really emerged from the great depression v2. Goldman once again reminded everyone today who is still in charge. As for tech, say good bye to the stimulus wave. In fact, Q1 GDP will be merely the next point on a declining curve. Unless a new stimulus is instituted promptly, this is now the middle of the W. The same for the artificial and one-time bounce in GDP as we have been saying since April of 2009. The bears, for the first time in 13 months are finally smelling blood. And we have a weekend chock full of catalysts,number one and two being the Greek bailout and the resultant civil war, and Lloyd Blankfein on Charlie Rose, digging himself into an even deeper hole. The best damage control for the squid right now is silence. Pity that stooping to the level of the morts has always been the mollusc's weakest side, and soon to be its undoing. Also add to that the Bund short-end screaming tighter, and the surge in the dollar, as in the sudden and dramatic evaporation of all carry trades, and you have set the stage for the Lehman unwind. Next week will be fun. Next week will be fun.
- Comments: 89
- Reads: 6,529
John Taylor: "Switzerland, Surrounded Again"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2010 - 15:00"World War II was fought over the control of people, whether they lived or died, their philosophical beliefs, and their land. In the end, the Swiss were willing to give up almost everything to not succumb to the National Socialists. Today, the Swiss are in a less stark, but surprisingly similar spot. They are surrounded by another all-encompassing concept: the euro. At first glance this might seem comical, but the German government stands ready to pay very large sums of money to any thief who can produce a list of German account holders at Swiss banks and the Italians are photographing the license plates of all cars crossing into Switzerland to check them against their tax records. Government agents and spies are involved as well. As far as we know there are no deaths in this war, but there are many financial losses, jail terms, and bankruptcies. In the past, the victims were wealthy men and corporations, and the battles had significant moral overtones, but the recent movement toward euro disintegration expands the battlefield, increases the risks astronomically, and will victimize all of western continental Europe, including Switzerland , from the lowliest clerk to the mightiest corporation." John Taylor, F/X Concepts
- Comments: 100
- Reads: 7,441
Just Because Washing Down Endless Daily Porn Surfing With Some Taxpayer Funded Happy Hour Never Felt So Good
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2010 - 14:18
From a reader:
Surprised to find out that the tax payer may be footing the bill for the SEC’s bar tab. Tried to grab a beer at the Gin Mill Bar in NYC the other night, but with 100 members of the SEC inside, it kinda killed the vibe. See attached.
Well, in all honesty this beats the AIG taxpayer funded trip to Ritz Carlton Half Moon Bay. Plus, being so corrupt and so incompetent (telling someone you work for the SEC creates a whole new category in mental visualization) as the average SEC worker, is in fact hard work. These are traits that in a different century, Charles Darwin would likely say should be critical for sexual selection... cue porn jokes here.
- Comments: 72
- Reads: 5,613
