No Volume Meltup, Nth Edition; Dow 36,000 In Sight
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 13:15
With no risk left on the table and no incentive to sell anymore, the autopilot "lift every offer on no volume" algo is rampaging. Compare today's volume to the past two days. The meltup will continue until the banks run out of repoable securities to pledge to each other and raise now-riskfree equities to 36,000 and much higher.
- Comments: 55
- Reads: 4,977
Mervyn King Warns Winners Of UK Election Will Be Kicked Out For Decades Due To Unpopular Austerity Measures Needed
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 13:07The TimesOnline notes that the Governor of the Bank of England has issued a warning that whichever leader wins the election next week will be kicked out of power for decades because of the severity of budget cuts they will have to instigate. Our own administration would be wise to pay attention to his words as America is undoubtedly next on the austerity bandwagon.
- Comments: 29
- Reads: 2,589
What Does The "Treasury Demand Curve" Tell Us About Treasury Demand?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 12:51
Now that moral hazard has been adopted everywhere, and the fate of the entire western world is determined by the successful issuance of hundreds of billions of dollars each and every month (we have gotten to the Maginot line where even a hint of a failed US auction would immediately blow up the global capital markets), it is prudent to take a detailed look into a topic that few have covered previously, namely what does the auction demand curve imply. We refer to the distribution of the Low-Mid-High yield break points in each and every treasury auction and whether they can provide some addition insight into the demand picture behind US sovereign debt.
- Comments: 20
- Reads: 6,101
Michael Krieger - This Is The Last Dance
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 12:17"Last year I wrote about how the leaders in America were essentially fiddling as Rome burned. This fiddling has become an all out dance party and many investors have been dragged onto the floor one more time due to money printing, an inherent desire to be optimistic, a plethora of propaganda and rising asset prices. However, this is the last dance folks. Our corporate and political leaders have destroyed us. Chuck Prince would be proud." Mike Krieger
- Comments: 319
- Reads: 41,999
Intraday FX Heatmap: Carry On With Turbo Boost
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 12:12
With no risk left on the table courtesy of the long-suffering but consistently nonchalant US taxpayer, there is no surprise what is going on in the carry trades around the world. Everyone is shorting the Yen, the Euro is stronger pretty much across the board, and the dollar is slowly entering the third lap of the devaluation race, currently in last place but starting to really pick up speed (stronger only against the CNY today most amusingly).
- Comments: 1
- Reads: 1,788
German FinMin Capitulates, Says PIIGS, Global Moral Hazard Win
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 11:51From Reuters:
German Fin Min: Crisis Largely Over In Europe and Germany
German Fin Min: If Greek Budget Consolidation Succeeds, No Tax Money Will Be Lost
German Fin Min: Without Consolidation In Greece We Will Have Unforeseeable Market Consequences
German Fin Min: Failure With Greece Would Put Euro In Question
German Fin Min: Cannot Throw Greece Out Of Eurozone
It's over - the excess debt/GDP terrorists have won, and Moral Hazard is now a global phenomenon. There will be no more failures anywhere. In other words, all your stock profits will come straight from your taxes.
- Comments: 59
- Reads: 3,907
Moody's Downgrades Greek Covered Bonds
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 11:33Good thing the ECB (and the IMF) no longer cares about what the Geiger counter reading on its collateralized assets is any longer. The rating agency which also has the last A-rated Greek rating is reviewing the Greek sovereign rating for further downgrades. Mortgage covered bonds of NBG, Alpha, Marfin and EFG Eurobank downgraded to A1. All on review for further possible downgrades.
- Comments: 13
- Reads: 1,655
Federal Reserve Crammed On Red Roof Inn Debt
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 11:14Remember that bit about how the Fed only holds the highest quality debt (we forget if it was Tweedledum or Tweedledee who said it)? It appears that's just the latest lie in the Fed's endless catalog of misrepresentations. According to TREPP, 11 properties held by Red Roof Inn hotels saw foreclosure actions initiated on them by CMBS special servicers, and are now being sent to the auction block. Guess who is most impacted by this action? Why, the Federal Reserve of course.
- Comments: 19
- Reads: 3,951
Goldman's Hotline To The IMF: Erik Nielsen Was Spot On With His Greek Bailout Number
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 10:45Erik Nielsen said one week ago Greece would need €120 billion. Today the IMF announced it would provide €120 billion. Coincidence? Read all about it straight from the horse's mouth.
- Comments: 20
- Reads: 3,397
Deep Thoughts From Grey Owl Capital Management
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 10:38"Recently value has been more difficult to find, but not impossible. The run-up has left the S&P 500 with an expected return over the next 7-10 years in the 3-4% range. With that expectation, coupled with the issues discussed at the outset of this letter, we are being very discerning about when and how we add risk exposure."
- Comments: 5
- Reads: 2,910
Zero Hedge Endorses David Rosenberg's Demand To "Ban The Bailout"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 10:03Zero Hedge fully endorses David Rosenberg's latest call: Ban The Bailout
First we have governments bailing out banks (and auto companies and mortgage providers), homeowner debtors, and now we have governments bailing out governments. When does someone finally say — enough is enough!
Look, Greece is not going to “fail”. They are going to default. There will be a debt restructuring. And there will be some recovery. Bondholders will take a haircut — why shouldn’t they? Why should Angela Merkel care if German banks own Greek bonds? Greece has been in default in its recent 200-year history almost half the time. So has most of Latin America come to think of it. What about Russia?
- Comments: 118
- Reads: 6,644
Frontrunning: April 29
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 09:02- Must read: Lombard Street believes that the major if not only buyers of the current rally are investment banks themselves, perpetuating biggest "pulling oneself out by the bootstraps" con game in history (FT)
- As Basis Yield Alpha Fund seeks compensation over its Timberwolf losses, Goldman pressed for CDO settlemetn (FT)
- FTW: European confidence improves to two year high (Bloomberg) on what? Expectations of EMU unraveling
- Greenwich Street Capital refused to be "first" ACA, saw Paulson deal as too risky (WSJ)
- Already holding junk, Germany hesitates (NYT)
- Baidu says sales to beat estimates on Google China "semi exit" (Bloomberg)
- Simon Johnson: To save the Eurozone: $1 trillion, ECB reform, and a new head for the IMF (Baseline Scenario)
- Fed can't delay market storm (MarketWatch)
- So as expected it was all just a ploy to get more porn download bandwidth: SEC Schapiro touts Goldman suit while seeking funds (Bloomberg)
- Comments: 25
- Reads: 2,250
Greek (Inverse) DIP Update: Bailout Loans To Be Junior To Existing Claims
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 08:23In breaking all ties with reality, the IMF has decided that not only will US taxpayer money be freely abused to rescue a profligate Greece, but that money will be effectively junior to existing claims, in essence making it some MC Escher DIP reverse DIP nightmare. Basically US taxpayers will be Last In, Last Out, and will recover any proceeds only after existing creditors get paid out. Pardon us, but this is bloody ridiculous. When will someone in the mainstream media start focusing on this??? Americans are getting the short end of the stick, and nobody in this country knows or cares about it.This is more billions that will be promptly paid and never recovered.
- Comments: 123
- Reads: 5,822
Daily Highlights: 4.29.10
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 08:22- Asian currencies gain, bond risk drops after Fed pledges to keep rates low.
- Asian stock markets little lower, on concerns of a spread of sovereign debt risk in Europe.
- Australia raises excise duty on tobacco by 25%, ends advertising.
- Australia poised to force tobacco companies to sell cigarettes in plain packs, a world first.
- Brazil lifts benchmark rate to 9.5% from 8.75%.
- European stocks rise after the IMF promises to increase the aid for Greece to 120B euros.
- Fed restated their intention to keep benchmark interest rate near zero for “extended period”.
- Global stock markets mixed as European debt crisis continues to unsettle investors.
- Comments: 5
- Reads: 996
RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX 29/04/10
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2010 - 08:05RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX 29/04/10
- Reads: 605
