BankingNews.gr Scrambles To Refute Rumors Of A "Greek Bank Bankruptcy"

Because we all know rumors are always false. Bankingnews.gr admoinishes its readers (courtesy of crude Google translation) to "not be carried by rumors of bankruptcy bank - is completely unfounded." With the entire Greek airforce calling in sick, could Goldman just be a smokescreen to the Persian invasion?

Frontrunning: April 27

• Mortgage deals under scrutiny as Goldman faces senators (NYT)
• Stocks drop (not here though, we should go green the second European markets close) on European debt-contagion concerns (Bloomberg)
• Vince Reinhart: The deflation club (The American)
• Volcanic ash crisis cost airlines GBP2.2 billion (Telegraph)
• Senator Dodd's carve out for cronies (Post)
• Ukrainian opposition hurls eggs and smoke bombs in parliament (FT)
• Tim Sykes and Kaja Whitehouse sued by SpongeTech for $43 million (HFN)
• Squids of a feather: Warren Buffett and Prince Alwaleed's secret letters (Telegraph) even as Alwaleed says he'll go on working with Goldman (BLoomberg)

Daily Highlights: 4.27.10

• Brazilian policy makers poised to raise borrowing costs at the fastest pace since 2003.
• China may use capital requirements for developers as policy tool to cool property market.
• Cost of insuring Greece's debt against default soared to a new record.
• Portugal suffering Greek debt contagion puts pressure on EU's bond markets.
• Republicans joined in the Senate to block Democrats' overhaul of financial regulation.
• Shanghai shares down 2.1%, with real estate stocks down on policy concerns.
• Trend in U.S. home prices may have been positive for first time since 2006

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX 27/04/10

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX 27/04/10

The Must Have Dictionary For Those Who Don't Speak Goldmanese Good

With less than 12 hours left to the once-in-a-generation cruentus calamari roasting, here is a primer for all those who will be listening in and hoping to understand any of the guttural noises coming out of the beaks of the those doing god's work on the Senate witness stand. Below is a must-have dictionary for all who seek to speak the divine (or is that brine?) dialect of the Goldmanites, courtesy of Bloomberg's Jonathan Weil.

Goldman Sees A $10.8 Trillion Budget Deficit In Next Decade, Focuses On Subpar Tax Receipts Net Of Refunds

Yesterday Goldman was saying that the quadrillions in soon to be issued Federal debt is nothing to worry about. Today the firm's rapidly self-discrediting economic team shifts its eyes to the deficit, which for the Projected 2010 is now estimated to be a blowout improvement: "$1.575bn (10.7% of GDP) from $1.64bn (11.2%) previously." Well, that's a great comfort. Oh wait, it isn't. "We have not made a formal change to our projection that the deficit will total $10.8 trillion (trn) over the next ten fiscal years given the comparatively small size of the change for FY 2010 and the considerable uncertainty inherent in the longer-term view." $11 trillion deficit. But at least somehow the national debt is nothing to worry about...While we reproduce the full note in its entirety below for those who feel like laughing, we point out Goldman's observations not only on tax receipts, but on tax receipts net of withholdings, a concept which according to some of our colleagues makes no sense. We'll be sure to let Jan Hatzius know asap. "Personal income tax revenues appear to be on the verge of noticeable improvement.  Over the first six months of the fiscal year, personal income tax receipts net of refunds are actually down significantly – 8.4% versus our assumption of nearly a 10% decline.  Reflecting last year’s sharp drop in personal income, final tax settlements on 2009 returns are running about 11% below year-earlier levels, and refunds (as reported in the Daily Treasury Statement) have been up about 5%.  However, withholdings of personal income taxes have improved noticeably in the past two months. [uhm, March yes, April no. see here] While some of this is due to calendar effects (March 2010 had one more business day than March 2009), the underlying trend appears to have moved from deeply negative through January to mildly positive since then [again, no - true for March, false for April].  As the economic recovery continues, we project that this trend will remain positive – between +5% and +10% – over the balance of the fiscal year.  This assumption adds $56bn to our estimate for personal income tax receipts, trimming the expected year-to-year setback by nearly two-thirds, to about 3.5%." Ah yes, and just as UBS wishes 2011 will be the new "new revenue story" so do 10 million drunk Irishmen see a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Goldman - meet Unicorn ranch.

Presenting Timberwolf

We are going through the March 2007 prospectus, with an emphasis on the Risk Factors section. We are convinced Timberwolf will feature prominently during tomorrow's questioning of Tom Montag. Another question: will Tannin and Cioffi appear as surprise witnesses. We have yet to encounter any discussion of how and why Abacus may have been involved in this deal, or why, as Montag so eloquently put it, it was "one shitty deal."