Emerging Markets At A Glance

With the US economy expected to drop to third place, behind China and India, with almost virtual certainty, by 2050, emerging markets, especially those that have a positive trade balance with the US, not just BRICs, will play an increasingly important role, especially now that the US trade deficit has become extremely politicized. Attached is a useful snapshot of the key emerging market trends, particularly in the context of waning economic powerhouses such as the US and Japan. As the authors observe: "The overriding common interest of China, India, Russia and the developed world is to find technological and political solutions to the challenges of energy security, climate change and the rebalancing of global demand. But free trade and free capital flows did not in fact survive the replacement of the UK by the USA as the world’s leading economic power, and this directly contributed to the Great Depression and huge undershoot in global equity returns of the 1930s. History warns that this could happen again, despite a strong common interest in “mutually assured prosperity.” However, this is just another way of saying that it is macro factors rather than micro ones that are most germane to the valuation debate. When people assert that the market is overvalued, they are really expressing their skepticism about the future of US productivity growth and/or the future of globalization. Logically enough, the reverse is also true: if you believe in the potential benefits of accelerating technological change and the dramatic rise of the emerging world, then the next decade for US equities is likely to be a bright one."

The Only iPad "Review" You Need To Read

Dear human race,

First of all, you’re welcome. In the last few days I’ve been overwhelmed by your letters and calls expressing your gratitude to Apple, and mostly to me personally, for inventing yet another life-changing, mind-altering product. All I can tell you is that with iPad, as with all of our products, all we did was create something that we want to use. We’re just so glad that you want to use it too. It’s humbling, actually. When you devote your entire life to the endless, selfless quest to improve the lives of others; when you live a monk-like existence, and focus all of your power and genius on the singular goal of creating objects that nourish souls and transform people’s lives with magic and wonder; and when people tell you that this is, indeed, what you’ve done — well, it’s gratifying. Namaste, entire population of Spaceship Earth. I honor the place where your desire to consume becomes one with my desire to create.

- Fake Steve Jobs

Guest Post: A World Without Banks

Imagine a world without bankers. That thought either rattles you to the core of your being, or it brings on the kind of ecstasy heretofore only available in a Southeast Asian massage parlor. If you are a Congressman, addicted to the effluent from the wallets of your owners on Wall Street and their lobbyists in Washington, if you are a real estate developer who believes no amount of office space and no amount of luxury condominiums is too much, or if you summer in the Hamptons and Nantucket, then you are clearly in the first camp. If you are a typical ZH’er, spending your weekends at the range with your Beretta or sharpening the tines on your pitchfork, then welcome to SE Asia and the world of your wildest fantasy.

Jim Grant Takes On David Rosenberg And The Bond Bulls, Warns The Fed Chairman: "Watch Your Back Ben Bernanke, Cycles Turn"

In one of the most erudite, intelligent, and insightful conversations on the Bond bull/bear debate, David Rosenberg and Jim Grant go all out at each other, trading blows in this "Great Debate" which is a must see by all. As we pointed out yesterday, Grant is very bearish on bonds, and in a self-made prospectus has decided to downgrade the US, since the rating agencies, which have long been thoroughly incompetent, corrupt and afraid to disturb the status quo, will not do so until it is too late. Jim's point is simple: you can't resolve massive debt with more debt, and says Treasuries, which he calls "certificates of confiscation" are a surefire way to lose one's money. He points to the record supply of US Treasuries, makes fun of the SEC (who doesn't), and in a stunning move, cautions the Fed Chairman, whose ongoing dollar debasement, was once considered treason by the US. His conclusion: "watch your back, Ben Bernanke. Cycles turn" could not have come at a more opportune time. As a contrarian, Rosenberg discusses the McKinsey report looking at sovereign debt, and the Reinhart and Rogoff studies on debt default and highlights that there is a major disconnect between theoretical applications of sovereign default models and practice: in essence the US is still deleveraging as private debt is decreasing and public debt is surging but to a slower degree. In essence, David claims, the second largest monthly debt issuance in March of $333 billion is merely a side effect of ongoing deleveraging, which is a leading and/or coincident indicator of deflation: an environment in which the long bond thrives (Japan is a good reference point).

Guest Post: Just Default Already, Greece

The chart says bond curve got more worried, and the CDS curve was … what it was in January. It seems that the CDS market reacted to the bailout news, while bonds continued to sell off. Differences in the curves at other times are reflections of inflation expectations and non-credit idiosyncratic risk. Neither curve is pricing in magical lightning from Zeus’ butthole that miracles billions of euros...Seems that all Greece has to show for their trouble is higher interest costs on a mountain of issuance coming up. On a global scale, aggregate debt repudiation either through inflation or default will be the endgame.

Primary Dealers Net Treasury Long Positions Spike To 2010 Highs, Is There A Major Derisking Occurring In PD Portfolios?

The FRBNY has disclosed that Primary Dealer bond holdings have surged to 2010 highs, with net Coupon holdings of nearly $20 billion, and all Treasuries (including Bills) accounting for $36 billion. Contrast these holdings with the lows recorded in late January in which Coupons were a net short position of ($24) billion. Bills have also surged by $32 billion from ($15) billion on February 17, to $17 billion on March 24. Incidentally the accumulation has occurred even as recent Bill and Coupon auctions have been very week over the past two weeks. Are PDs becoming unable to offload auction allocations? After all this is capital that the Primary Dealers would much rather use to gun the stock market than be locked up in instruments yielding virtually nothing. Alternatively, if PDs are accumulating Treasuries, could this merely be an indication that they are reallocating capital away from equities and to USTs? Furthermore, Corporate bond holdings have dropped to near 2010 lows - is there a major shift away from risk (yes, that includes stocks) occurring under the surface? Altogether, PDs have spent $33 billion to cover shorts and accumulate fixed income instruments (including Agency and MBS) over the past month, and $60 billion Year To Date.