Frontrunning: May 23

• Global shares sink, following 7.3 percent drop in Japan's Nikkei (Reuters)
• When all fails, pull a Kevin Bacon: Japan Economy Chief Warns Against Panic Over Stock Sell-Off (BBG)
• White House Feeds IRS Frenzy by Revising Accounts (BBG)
• In any scandal, lying to Congress is tough to prove (Reuters)
• Debt limit resets at higher level, budget impasse grinds on (Reuters)
• China factory data to test political calculations (FT)
• European Leaders Saying No to Austerity (BBG)
• And yet, nobody wants in anymore: Iceland’s new coalition government suspends EU accession talks (FT)
• Oil Manipulation Inquiry Shows EU’s Hammer After Libor (BBG)
• The Fed Squeezes the Shadow-Banking System (WSJ)
• Diamond Said to Weigh Backing Barclays Alumni in Venture (BBG)
• Spain’s Private Jets Disappearing as Tycoons Cut Flights (BBG)

Japan Stock Market Crash Leads To Global Sell Off

Yesterday afternoon, following the rout in the US stock market, we made a spurious preview of the true main event: "So selloff in JGBs tonight?" We had no idea how right we would be because the second Japan opened, its bond futures market was halted on a circuit breaker as the 10 Year bond plunged to their lowest level since early 2012, hitting 1% and leading to massive Mark to Market losses for Japanese banks, as we also warned would happen. That was just the beginning, and suddenly the realization crept in that the plunging yen at this point is not only negative for banks, but for the entire stock market, leading to what until that point was a solid up session for the Nikkei to the first rumblings of a ris-off. Shortly thereafter we got the distraction of the Chinese Mfg PMI which dropped into contraction territory for the first time since late 2012, and which set the mood decidedly risk-offish, although the real catalyst may have been a report on copper from Goldman's Roger Yan (which we will cover in depth shortly) and whose implications may be stunning and devastating and may have just popped the Chinese credit bubble (oh, btw, short copper). And then all hell broke loose, with the Nikkei first rising solidly and then something snapping loud and clear, and sending the index crashing a massive 1,143 an intraday swing of 9% high to low, leading to an over 200 pips move lower in the USDJPY, and leading to a global risk off across the world.

Japanese Stocks Halted; Plunge 1500 Points To Close Down 7.3% - Biggest Drop In 26 Months

UPDATE 1: They are panicking... BOJ injected 2 trillion yen ($19.4 billion) into the financial system to stem volatility following a circuit breaker in JGB futures trading.

UPDATE 2: Nikkei 225 is now down 1500 points from its highs and down 1150 (over 7%) from yesterday's close

UPDATE 3: The Final closing data is a disaster with JPY surging back to 101.50 (carry trades getting baumgartner'd everywhere), stocks down over 7%, and 10Y JGBs swinging from +11bps at the open to -6bps at the close for the second biggest range day in a decade...

All the time it is just the quadrillion JPY second-largest bond market in the world that is experiencing volatility on an unprecedented scale, the BoJ and her partners in crime are more than willing to 'officially' say "please do not worry." But when the equity market - that barometer of everything good and holy about Abenomics starts to crater, you can bet the excuses will come fast and furious. Today's drop of over 1500 points (over 9%) from the earlier highs is the largest drop for the Nikkei 225 since March 2011. The Nikkei 225 just lost the all-powerful 15,000 level and is suffering another VaR shock with a 6-sigma move today. In fact given the price levels this drop is on par with the post-Lehman moves in 2008. The question now (with US equity futures also fading fast -20 points and JPY crosses getting hammered) is how will the Japanese risk appetite for peripheral European crap hold up with this crimping in their plan as Japanese bonds and stocks dump?

Chinese Economy Enters Contraction With First Sub-50 PMI Print Since October

For the first time since October 2012, HSBC's China PMI (Flash) printed at a sub-50 level (49.6) missing expectations (50.4) quite notably. This is the worst two-month drop in 17 months. This is problematic for the PBoC who are being arbitraged left, right, and center and know that any stimulus will merely serve to exacerbate the problems they face (as we noted here that China simply cannot function with 'moderate' growth). Every one of the main index's 11 sub-indices is signaling 'problems' - from slower rates of output, slower new orders, employment dropping at a faster rate, stocks rising, and output prices falling. As HSBC notes, "The cooling manufacturing activities in May reflected slower domestic demand and ongoing external headwinds. A sequential slowdown is likely in the middle of 2Q, casting downside risk to China’s fragile growth recovery." Of course, none of this should come as any surprise to ZH readers - as we noted here, Chinese power consumption grew at its slowest rate since May 2009.

Present Shock And The Loss Of History And Context

"Time in the digital era is no longer linear but disembodied and associative. The past is not something behind us on the timeline but dispersed through the sea of information." In effect, change no longer flows linearly like time anymore, it flows in all directions at once. History and meaningful context are both fatally disrupted by this non-linear flow of time and narrative. If the causal chains of history and narrative are disrupted, then how can anyone fashion a meaningful context for actions and narratives, and effectively frame problems and solutions? If everything is equally valid in a non-linear flood of data, then what roles can authenticity, experience and knowledge play in making sense of our world? "We're essentially the victims of a marketing and capitalist machine gone awry... we no longer are the active source of our own experience or our own choices. Instead, we succumb to the notion that life is a series of product purchases that have been laid out and whose qualities and parameters have been pre-established."

IRS' Lois Lerner Re-Subpoenaed After Accidentally Waiving Her Right To Plead The Fifth

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"

Try This Experiment Yourself...

Anchoring is "our tendency to grab hold of irrelevant and often subliminal inputs in the face of uncertainty." In the absence of reliable knowledge about the future, investors have a tendency to anchor onto something – anything – to help them predict future market returns. And what better anchor to use for future market returns than prior ones? This is where the story gets more intriguing. When looking at the UK stock market in discrete 20-year blocks, the period from 1980-1999 is the only one in the last 300-years in which inflation-adjusted returns averaged between 8% and 10% per year. Investors seem to be anchoring their market predictions to recent returns of the past, therefore buying ‘the index’ expensively, inclusive of a grotesque bubble of credit. One can expect this to end in a train wreck.