BTFD? Because nothing says stability like record high credit risk...
One would imagine that in a market as skittish for risk as this one, that selling $24 billion in 3 Year paper would be if not as easy as pie, then as simple as last month's issuance, when not a cloud was visible when the Treasury sold 3 Year paper. One would be wrong, because moments ago the US Treasury managed to sell precisely that amount in February 2019 paper, however at a notable concession to the When Issued, with the high yield of 0.844% tailing the When Issued by 0.7 bps, while the Bid to Cover of 2.742 was the lowest since July of 2009.
Global equity market investors have lost a stunning $16.5 trillion of their newfound CB-fueled "wealth" in the last six months. This has erased half of the gains from the 2011 lows (but of course leaves all the debt created still in place). However, what is perhaps more troubling given the unprecedented money-printing since the last crisis peak, is that global equity market "wealth" is now down 10% from its November 2007 prior highs.
These are trying times. Fortunately, Narayana Kocherlakota is a "courageous" man with "daring" solutions.
The year continues to be bruising for risk assets and recent attempts at stabilisation have been unsuccessful. After a mild rebound, equities and US credit spreads are again close to their year’s worst levels. In addition to the initial concerns about China and energy, two new issues further weigh on risk sentiment: the slowdown in US growth momentum and the tightening of financial conditions especially in European financial credit.
“Are we closer to an economic recession or a continued expansion?” With the Fed hiking interest rates, and talking a tough game of continued economic strength, the risk of a “policy error” has risen markedly in recent months. The markets, falling inflation indicators, and plunging interest rates are all suggesting the same.
"I don't mean that in a negative way. I am happy."
Money flows are becoming increasingly disconnected from fundamental price movements.
Too much mal-invested, Fed-fueled, hope-driven "if we build it, they will buy it" inventory... and not enough actual demand. This has never, ever, ended well in the past - so why is this time different?
The relatively few leaders (aka, “generals”) that had been propping up the indexes are being systematically taken out.
AL JUBEIR SAYS U.S. PROPOSED GROUND FORCE DEPLOYMENT: SPA
SAUDI FORCE WOULD FIGHT AS PART OF U.S.-LED COALITION: SPA
SAUDI MINISTER SAYS SENDING GROUND FORCE UNDER DISCUSSION: SPA
SAUDI ARABIA READY TO SEND SPECIAL FORCE TO FIGHT IS IN SYRIA
Just ten days ago, in the aftermath of the BOJ's -0.1% NIRP announcement, we reported that after one year of NIRP had pushed the total number of government bonds with negative yields to a staggering $3 trillion, that number nearly doubled overnight to $5.5 trillion. Overnight in a historic event, the latest consequence of the BOJ losing control, the yield on Japan's 10Y JGB dropped below zero for the first time, in the process joining Switzerland as the only other country (for now) with a NIRPing benchmark 10Y treasury.
With Deutsche Bank credit risk exploding and stock price collapsing to record lows, despite the CEO's "rock solid" affirmations, there is only one way to know just how real a crisis this is... when government officials issue 'denials'.