What do you call a "growth" stock that has stopped growing?
"The Fed is completely dangerous - it's the most dangerous entity out there. The policy makers are the ones who are causing much of the problems we have today... The bad news has only just begun... This bear market will continue which means we’re headed lower with rallies in between until the Federal Reserve is forced to come in and start QE4."
And just like that AMZN joins the AAPL club in admitting it is fresh out of organic growth ideas, and will resort to balance sheet alchemy to boost its price higher over the foreseeable future. Any immediate jumps in the stock are to be faded.
With access to heavily discounted Canadian crude, Midwest refiners are churning out cheaper and cheaper gasoline. “That could trigger fire sales—very quick and low price sales,” Patrick DeHaan of GasBuddy told the WSJ. There is a “strong possibility” that refiners, trying to offload excess winter fuel blends, could discount prices down to 99 cents per gallon for a brief period of time.
Is this what they call a "trust fall"?
Charlie Munger On Trump As President: "Anyone Who Makes Money Running A Casino Isn't Morally Qualified"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2016 - 15:29
Earlier today Munger, the vice chairman at Berkshire Hathaway Inc., dismissed Republican Donald Trump’s qualifications to be president, during the annual meeting of his Daily Journal Corp. As reported by Bloomberg, Munger, 92, responded to a question whether a person who couldn’t make money in the gaming industry would be a good fit for the top office in the U.S. “Well, he did make money for quite a while,” Munger said. “My attitude is that anybody who makes money running a casino is not morally qualified.”
Having seen what monetary-policy failure looks like in Japan.. and in the US, we now turn our attention to the world. Amid NIRP temptations, growth fears, and faltering faith in central banker control, market-implied inflation expectations have collapsed to record lows. Worse still, even The Fed's own survey of consumer's inflation expectations has slumped to record lows.
What we do know is that the eurodollar system is failing and we know how it is failing. From negative swap spreads to the shrunken, depressed money and credit curves, they all spell out the death of the current standard. The money supply, for lack of a more appropriate term in the “dollar’s” universe, is in the long run converging with the shriveled economic baseline. The immediate problem for our current circumstances is that we don’t yet have any idea what that foundation might look like even now- how far is down.
The reality of loss will be more than most can stomach and sentiments of “time in the market” will go mostly unheeded. This is, of course, why many of the coveted millennial investors have already rejected much of the Wall Street rhetoric after watching the devastation that wrecked their parents over the last 15 years.
The on-the-run WTI crude futures price just plunged to $27.27 (for the March contract) which is a new cycle low for black gold (below March's previous "This is the low" lows in January.) It should not be entirely surprising since US Energy credit risk has spiked once again to new record highs.
John Kerry Makes Last Ditch Effort To Avert World War III As Saudis, Turks Prepare For Syria InvasionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/10/2016 - 13:57
Tomorrow, John Kerry will meet Sergei Lavrov and several of his other counterparts from Europe and the Mid-East in Munich in a last ditch effort to revive Syrian peace talks, which fell apart amid an intense Russian air assault on rebel positions in Aleppo. With the opposition facing imminent defeat, the rebels' Sunni benefactors are preparing to intervene in a move that may very well spark a global conflict.
For the first time since 2007, the spread between 2Y and 10Y US treasury yields has to 100bps. While not inverted, which the status quo maintains means there cannot be a recession, the bond market is flashing ominous signs for both the economy and the US financial system...
"The Fed doesn't have a clue!" - We allege that not only because the Fed appears to admit as much, but also because our own analysis leads to no other conclusion. With Fed communication in what we believe is disarray, we expect the market to continue to cascade lower - think what happened in 2000. To understand what's unfolding we need to understand how the Fed is looking at the markets, and how the markets are looking at the Fed.
After yesterday's mediocre 3 Year auction, there were concerns whether the Treasury would find willing buyers to soak up today's $23 billion in benchmark 10Year Paper. Those concerns were promptly relieved moments ago when not only did the 10Y auction price stopping through the When Issued by a whopping 1.3 bps, at 1.73%, but it was also the lowest yield since December 2012.
Yes, Chesapeake will default, but the question is when. For those who think the company will somehow survive for a more than a month without filing Chapter 11 or arranging some prepackaged bankruptcy, and actually repays the $500 million issue, this could be the trade that makes someone's full year.