The latest BAC credit and debit card spending data is out and it is not pretty, and not just for the mid-level consumer who, as documented previously, has been tapping out ever since April as the following Gallup consumer spending chart shows but also for the high-end.
There's one thing resource downturns are good for: seeing which projects and regions are the strongest in industry. And we got another big indication this week that there's one global leader when it comes to uranium mining...
It appears bad news is bad news again. Fed's Evans just played "bad cop" to any hopeful talking head (Fed's Dudley earlier predicted US rate hike this year), implicitly taking October off the table...
- *EVANS: POL SHLD BE SOMEWHAT MORE ACCOMMOD THAN SEP SUGGESTS
- *EVANS: APPROPRIATE FOR FED RATES TO STILL BE SUB-1% AT END-2016
- *EVANS SAYS SLOWER GROWTH IN CHINA AMONG RISKS TO U.S. INFLATION
The market's reaction to this "way lower for longer" comment was negative.
Following last week's biggest rig count decline in 5 months, Baker Hughes reports a smaller decline of 9 oil rigs this week to 605 - the lowest since July 2010. WTI Crude was trading just below $50 as the data printed and jumped above it on the rig count drop.
As the evidence, that the US economy is either in or near a recession, mounts (confirmed by a new cycle high in inventories-to-sales just today), it appears even the most ardent optimists are admitting the odds of a US recession are on the rise. As Bloomberg reports, for the first time in 14 months, economists year-ahead recession probability estimates rose (to their highest level in 2 years).
The warnings are getting louder. Is anybody listening?
Hot on the heels of Deutsche Bank's admission that all is not well, Credit Suisse's announcement last night of a major capital raise was greeted by buying pressure from investors. However, reality punched them in the face this morning as CS releasaed its investor day details and, as Bloomberg reports, is looking to raise up to CHF8 billion (almost 50% larger than Goldman Sachs investor survey suggested). Clearly, CS' has a much more massive capital shortfall than expected.
With Republicans In Disarray, And No Debt Ceiling Deal, All Eyes Turn To November 18 When The US Runs Out Of CashSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/09/2015 - 11:29
As more and more Fed speakers, talking heads, and status-quo-protectors talk of, beg for, and demand negative interest rates (NIRP), the mainstream is starting to wake up to the possibility of this farce coming to America. As Lacy Hunt tells Rick Santelli in the brief clip below, "the evidence is overwhelming that QE was more of a negative than positive," and warns the consequences of NIRP are dire (and The Fed has the tools to enginner it) as "to make it effective they would effectively have to call in the currency."
It appears there is a minimum wage threshold below President Obama's mandated thresholds that are "fair" and "livable." As NYPost reports, Urban Outfitters has asked workers at the company’s home office to "volunteer" for extra weekend shifts at a new fulfillment center in the town of Gap, Pennsylvania. In other words, the true minimum wage is $0 per hour. Bear in mind that if the labor market were growing as it should, in sharp contrast to how it has been presented over the past year, minimum wage laws would be the furthest from the mainstream.
If you make it so burdensome to operate a legit business, then you're basically giving people without big lines of credit and capital few choices but to work in the cash-only underground economy.
The persistent claim emanating from Washington that America spreads freedom and democracy around the world has been exposed as ludicrous numerous times and in many parts of the world, but not in the US itself, and that’s what counts most. The notion that we we can grow our way out of the mess that our previous growth spurt has gotten us into, rests at best on very flimsy foundations. To shake off this all-encompassing growth ideal, however, we would need to radically change our ‘model’ of the world.
Wholesale Inventories rose 0.1% MoM (more than expected and the most in 7 months) and Sales dropped 1.0% MoM (notably less than expected and weakest in 7 months) sending the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.31x - new cycle highs - and flashing the brightest recession warning yet. With inventories up 4.2% YoY and Sales down 4.5% YoY, the stunning reality is the absolute dollar spread between inventories and sales has never been bigger.