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Business Inventories Jump, Sales Tumble Sending Ratio To Recession-Warning Cycle Highs

After some stabilization into mid-2015, the ratio of business inventories-to-sales has surged as sales have disappointed and mal-investment-driven dreams have over-stocked. Business inventories rose 0.1% MoM in December (retail up 0.4%) and sales tumbled 0.6%. At 1.39x, the current ratio is flashing a warning that a deep de-stocking recession looms.


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Why NIRP (Negative Interest Rates) Will Fail Miserably

What NIRP communicates is: this sucker's going down, so sell everything and hoard your cash and precious metals. If that's what the central banks want households and enterprises to do, NIRP will be a rip-roaring success.


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The Curious Case Of The "Strong" January Retail Sales: It Was All In The Seasonal Adjustment

Even a modestly deeper look below the strong retail sales headline numbers once again reveals just how this "across the board beat" was accomplished. It was all in the seasonal adjustment.


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EU Ready To Restrict Passport-Free Travel, Austria To Close Border

"Each of the 26 countries in the open-travel Schengen Area is allowed to unilaterally put up border controls for a maximum of six months. That limit can be extended for up to two years if a member nation is found to be failing to protect its borders."


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S&P 500 Approaching Significant Levels

The correction in the equity markets has brought the S&P 500 down close to a confluence of key technical levels.


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Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Control Group Rises Most Since May Delaying "Fed Relent"

There was much at stake in today's retail sales report, because had the Census reported another miss in the headline, ex auto and control group data, it would have made the Fed's job of maintaing the illusion of a recovery into a rate hike cycle virtually impossible. Luckily for Yellen, the numbers came out and they were were beats across the board.


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Deutsche Bank Rallies On Modest Debt Buyback Plan, Schaeuble Proclaims "Strong, Resilient Bank"

Deustche Bank stock is ripping 10% higher after confirming old news that it will undertake a modest debt buyback of $2 billion and €3 billion (not including the CoCos). Have no fear though as Wolfgang Schaeuble proclaimed Deutsche Bank is a "strong bank" that ios "resilient" and "well positioned."


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Europe's Most Distressing Chart: For Banks 2016 Is Already Worse Than 2008

As the following chart from Reuters shows, the year-to-date stock price performance for most European banks is on pace to far surpass - to the downside - the dreadful for the global financial system 2008.


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Deutsche Bank: "Markets Are Crying Out For A Circuit Breaker", But There Is A Problem

DB's Jim Reid today writes that "Markets are crying out for a circuit breaker at the moment."  There is just one problem: nobody knows what this circuit breaks would and should be, or if it would even work.


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Frontrunning: February 12

  • Yellen's dilemma: A downturn with no easy response (Reuters)
  • Clinton, Sanders clash over Obama as they vie for minority votes (Reuters)
  • Risk Grows of Markets Sparking Recession (WSJ)
  • Global Stock Rout Eases Amid Oil Advance as German Bonds Decline (BBG)
  • U.S. Benchmark Yield Will Be at Record Low in March at This Rate (BBG)
  • Oil Prices Rally on Hopes of Production Cuts (WSJ)

Tyler Durden's picture

Greece Slides Back Into Recession Amid Riots, Rewewed "Grexit" Calls

As we and quite a few others warned, the new bailout and the attached terms would do exactly nothing to turn the Greek economy around. We’re all for being responsible with the budget but you can’t very well implement fiscal retrenchment during a depression unless you intend to remain in said depression in perpetuity, but alas, that’s exactly what Brussels forced Greece to do and on Friday we learn that the country has slipped back into recession.


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Despite Crashing Japan, European, U.S. Markets Rebound On Firmer Oil

Following a week of crazy volatility, overnight exhausted markets took a breather.


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JPM's Kolanovic Warns Upcoming Recession Could Be Comparable To 2008 Crisis; Says "Buy Gold, Cash And VIX"

"Gglobal markets are now facing a significant ‘negative wealth effect’ that has a potential to result in a recession. This negative wealth effect of low commodity prices and a strong USD combined with the slowdown in China could be comparable to that of the 2008/2009 crisis (it involves diverse effects ranging from layoffs in the Global Energy sector to a lack of EM Sovereign wealth flowing into developed market equity hedge funds). While the economists were debating if the low-priced oil is good or bad for the economy, the equity markets never had any doubts – Oil and Equities were moving down together."


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Canada Sells Nearly Half Of All Its Gold Reserves

The government of Canada sold off nearly half its gold reserves in recent weeks, continuing a pattern of moving away from the precious metal as a government asset. According to the International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics, Canada held three tonnes of gold reserves as of late 2015. The latest data, published last week, show the total Canadian gold reserves now stand at 1.7 tonnes. That’s just 0.1 per cent of the country’s total reserves.


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If Credit Is Right, The S&P Is Facing A 40% Crash

...and credit is always right in the end!


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