How Much Longer Can Junk Bonds Ignore Tumbling Oil? UBS Has The Answer

"If oil prices fall to $40 or below, the negative impact on rest of world profits could be a material headwind for aggregate corporate profits, and a prolonged $40 oil price would trigger more stress and defaults in lower-quality HY issuers heading into 2018."

Signs Of Excess: Crowding & Innovation

It is not until very late in the “bull market” cycle that individuals return to the “casino.”  Of course, this is after a long period of being chastised by the mainstream media “for missing the rally” and admonishing advisors for not “beating the market.” Everyone should just buy an index fund because “this time is different” and there is an overwhelming perception that there is “no risk” of chasing “risk.”

Robert Soros Steps Down As President Of Soros Family Office

Robert Soros, 53, the eldest of George Soros' five children and currently deputy chairman and president of Soros Fund Management, is resigning from those roles and stepping down from day-to-day management to invest his own money at the $26 billion family office according to Bloomberg.

Will Gold's Tumble Continue? Here Is Citi's Answer

This morning's flash-crash dump of over $2 billion notional in gold futures broke numerous technical levels, but as the precious metal bounces back off support, the question is will the bounce continue? Citi answers...

Gold Flash Crashes As "Someone" Dumps $2 Billion, "Fat Finger" Blamed

Shortly after 4am EDT, as the European market was warming up for trading, Gold suddenly plunged $12, or 1%, to $1,242 an ounce, on a surge in volume with 18k contracts, or just over $2 billion notional, trading in a one-minute window; as of 9:20am London, volumes running around 150% of recent averages. As so often happens, the gold plunge dragged silver down with it as well.

Fed's Dudley Had Some Worrying Remarks During A Closed-To-The-Press Session

"...when financial conditions ease—as has been the case recently—this can provide additional impetus for the decision to continue to remove monetary policy accommodation." Said otherwise, Dudley wants financial conditions tighter, and stocks lower, and will keep hiking rates until the market reacts accordingly.

Even The Fed's Own National Economy Activity Index Just Collapsed In May

Lies, Damned Lies, and Fed Press Conferences. The incessant outpouring of confidence in the future of economic growth in America espoused as reasoning for raising rates (when all around them, signals are collapsing) just got another slap in the face... this time self-inflicted.

Durable Goods Orders Tumble (Again) In May, Still 5% Below 2007 Peak

Following a big drop in April (revised worse), May's preliminary durable goods orders tumbled 1.1% MoM (the worst since November). Across the entire report, numbers disappointed with Capital Goods Orders and Shipments both dropping considerably more than expected. And as a reminder, Durable Goods Orders remain 5% below 2007's peak (while the S&P is 55% above its 2007 peak).

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Yellen, Inflation, Durables And GDP

The main releases this week are the durable goods report on Monday, the Q1 GDP revision on Thursday, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. There are also many speaking engagements by Fed officials including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Tuesday.

Frontrunning: June 26

  • Italian Bank Deal Raises Questions About Eurozone Rules (WSJ)
  • UK PM May strikes $1.3 billion deal to get Northern Irish DUP support for her government (Reuters)
  • Nestle Targeted by Dan Loeb in Activist’s Biggest-Ever Bet (BBG)
  • Nestle 'committed' to strategy as activist investor moves in (Reuters)
  • Troubled Air-Bag Maker Takata Files for Bankruptcy (WSJ)

SocGen: "Fundamentals No Longer Matter? Yeah Right..."

"Any systematic strategy formulated around any notion of price momentum (we’d put volatility weighted and risk parity into this group as well) are simply following slavishly these changes in fundamentals using price as the principal signal for a change in expectations. So it is not that systematic strategies are not driven by fundamentals, it is they offer no view to the future"

Theresa May Strikes $1 Billion Governing Deal With Northern Irish Party

U.K. PM Theresa May clinched a deal with Northern Irish lawmakers giving her Conservative Party the necessary votes it needs to govern as a minority administration.  The deal provides Mrs. May's party with the extra votes it needs to pass critical legislation and remain in office.

Italy Bank Bailouts Send European, Global Stocks Higher; Gold Flash Crashes

S&P futures point to a higher open following gains in Asia but mostly Europe, where stocks are sharply higher following the €17 billion bailout of the two Veneto banks in Italy, the biggest taxpayer funded bank rescue in modern Italian history, as well as Dan Loeb's activist campaign of the world's biggest food company, Nestle

(Un)Locked & Loaded

"...as many as 38% of gun owners in the States have a loaded, easily accessible gun in the home at all times"