Like many controversial topics in investing, there is no real professional consensus on market timing. Academics claim that it’s not possible, while traders and chartists swear by the idea. That said, as VisualCapitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, one thing that everyone can probably agree on is that markets are cyclical and that securities do have recurring chart patterns. They aren’t predictable all of the time, but learning the fundamentals around market cycles can only help an investor in furthering their understanding of how things work.
Chinese President Xi Jinping recently announced that he would take command of all of China’s armed forces, including the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Xi is already chairman of the Central Military Commission that oversees the army. He is now taking a more direct role as head of the new Joint Operations Command Center, which puts him in operational command of the PLA in times of war. The new title in all likelihood means little in terms of actual command, but it has tremendous political significance. Officially, the Chinese are reforming their military, which is logical (read why here). The roots of this change, however, lie in China’s economic crisis and the need to preserve the regime.
First sign of disorderly market: widening bid-offer spreads
Second sign: gapping
In extreme cases, dealers stop answering their phones
While the Arab countries floated themselves on oceans of petro-dollars forty years ago, they have little need for them now. So we must now turn our attention to China, which is well positioned to act as white knight to Saudi Arabia. China’s SAFE sovereign wealth fund could easily swallow the Aramco stake, and there are good strategic reasons why it should. A quick deal would help stabilise a desperate financial and political situation on the edges of China’s rapidly growing Asian interests, and keep Saudi Arabia onside as an energy supplier. China has dollars to dispose, and a mutual arrangement would herald a new era of tangible cooperation. The US can only stand and stare as China teases Saudi Arabia away from America’s sphere of influence.
"We exist, beyond any shadow of any doubt, in an environment of absolute fakery where nothing is real... All of this is being played in a way to keep people believing, once again, that the system is working and will continue to work."
The probability of The Donald becoming the Republican Presidential nominee has surged up to a record high 85% this week (as the odds of a brokered convention collapse) as a more mild-mannered and "can't we all get along" Trump begins to creep out of the shadows. As the inevitable event looms - no matter what the establishment tries - increasing numbers of #NeverTrump-ers are slowly but surely moving over to what they pictured before as the dark side. The latest, as The Hill reports, is none other than Marco Rubio who said "[Trump's] performance has improved significantly," urging GOP "let’s not ignore the will of the people or they’re going to be angry." Additionally, Rep. Jimmy Duncan (R-Tenn.) on Saturday endorsed Donald Trump for president, giving the GOP front-runner his 12th lawmaker endorsement.
Comparing the growth in the number of full time jobs versus the growth in new home sales starkly illustrates both the horrible quality of the new jobs, and how badly ZIRP has served the US economy.
In Japan, the European Union and Switzerland, where negative nominal interest rates have already been adopted, it was observed that demand for safes and cash increased. At the same time, we learn that negative rates have boosted demand for gold in Japan (sales of gold to Japanese consumers rose to 32.8 metric tonnes in 2015 from 17.9 tonnes a year earlier). According to Takahiro Ito, chief manager at Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K.’s store in Tokyo’s Ginza shopping district, “Many customers are wagering that it’s better to turn their savings to gold as a safe asset rather than deposit money at banks that offer low interest rates."
In the new normal, where bad news is good news, stagnation is growth, and depression is a buying opportunity, it should be no surprise that the so-called "safety stocks" of the Consumer Staples sector have never been more risky. At a P/E valuation of 22x, food, beverage, and tobacco companies have never been more expensive. But, "safety stocks" are not the most expensive stocks in the US equity market...
Nuclear power is not commercially viable but has become a state-sponsored technology. There is nothing wrong with state supported technology. But we could save a lot of time and money by not pretending that it is something else.
"That was not the easiest entrance I've ever made. We went under a fence, and through a fence. Oh boy, it felt like I was crossing the border actually..."