The Reckoning Looms - Central Bankers Really Don't Know What They're Doing

What is happening this year is astounding. After saying year after year after year that the recovery is coming, and even doing so to the point of condescension, the admissions of wrongfulness are starting to roll in, if only softly at first. How ludicrous does “transitory” look now?

Look Who Is Gutting The First Amendment!

"The [American Bar Association] wants to do exactly what the text calls for: limit lawyers' expression of viewpoints that it disapproves of...  state courts and state bars should resist the pressure to adopt it."

Another Warning Sign

While there are many hopes of an end to the current “profits” recession, there is mounting evidence those hopes may once again be disappointed. One of the latest such indications is rising employee compensation. While rising employee compensation is good from the view it should lead to rising consumption, it also reduces corporate profitability (wages reduce profits.) Furthermore, this is especially problematic currently as rising compensation is being offset by soaring healthcare costs due to the Affordable Care Act.

Why Is FaceBook Funding "Anti-Fed" Activists

That's what St. Louis Fed president James Bullard would like to know: "I think that Dustin Moskovitz should be here, maybe he can helicopter in from Sun Valley or something instead of sending all these people, if he wants low interest rates."

Crude Lifts After Rising Oil Rig Count Trend Ends

After Yellen, Saudi-Yemen, and Fischer headlines roundtripped crude prices for the day, Baker Hughes' oil rig count was unchanged for the week at 406 (ending 8 straight weeks of rises). Crude prices are rising modestly on the news...

Lots of Smoke Here, Hillary

Prediction: If Hillary Clinton wins, within a year of her inauguration, she will be under investigation by a special prosecutor on charges of political corruption, thereby continuing a family tradition.

Vice Chairman Of Lotte Hangs Himself Hours Before Criminal Probe

The past several years have seen a surprising spike in professional suicides, mostly confined to the banking sector in general and Deutsche Bank in particular. Overnight this tragic group expanded into multinational corporation sector, after one the top executives at South Korea's multination conglomerate Lotte Group was found dead on Friday, in what is a suspected suicide, in what police described was a "typical case of death by hanging."

Why The Fed Expects 2018 Rates To Be Between 0% And 4.5%

"The reason for the wide range is that the economy is frequently buffeted by shocks and thus rarely evolves as predicted.... What we do know, however, is that we want a policy toolkit that will allow us to respond to a wide range of possible conditions."

Goldman: "Yellen Remarks Point To Higher Odds Of September Hike", Market Disagrees

With pundits unable to decide if Yellen's speech was hawkish or dovish, we need a tiebreaker, and as always the best one is the bank that has spawned more central bankers than any other institution, Goldman Sachs. As such, according to the just released analysis of Goldman's Jan Hatzius, the Fed speech "raised the odds of a rate increase at the September FOMC meeting," but he adds that "any action will depend on the result of next week's jobs report. "

"Hawkish" Yellen Speech Sparks Buying Spree In Everything (Except Dollars)

The US Dollar is being dumped after Yellen's apparently 'hawkish' speech as the market appears to have latched onto one sentence..."future policymakers may wish to explore the possibility of purchasing a broader range of assets." Stocks are up, gold is up, bonds are up, oil is up...

Consumer Confidence Slumps As Inflation Expectations Crash To All-Time Lows

The "disinflationary mindset" remains as UMIch-reported medium-term inflation expectations plunge back to record lows. Headline consumer confidence also dropped to its lowest since 2016 lows in April driven by drop in 'hope' from the flash print - stuck at lowest levels since 2014.