Oil Companies Shun South Chinese Sea As Geopolitical Tensions Rise
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 14:00
The South China Sea is continually paraded as a region rich in oil and gas deposits; however, no one really knows what’s there with any degree of accuracy. Furthermore, these possible deposits are shrouded in conflict that will not abate anytime soon, and will most likely worsen with an intensification of the security competition between China and the United States along with its regional allies, which is tightly related to these disputes. So, what deposits do these areas contain?
2006 Redux? Israel Shells Lebanon After Hezbollah Bombs Israeli Convoy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 13:41
“The Israelis are hiding like rats along the border. The retaliation to Samir’s assassination will inevitably come. Hezbollah would not tolerate the blood of our jihadist fighters and brothers to be shed anywhere in this world.”
2016 Theme #1: The Loss Of Great Power Leverage
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 13:10
A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the decline of Great Power leverage.
Byron Wien's Reveals Top 10 Predictions: Expects Stocks To Decline After Predicting 15% Rise In 2015
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:53
"The United States equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance."
This Time Isn't Different
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:36
The reckless herd has been in control for the last few years, but their recklessness is going to get them slaughtered. Corporate profits are plunging. Labor participation continues to fall. A global recession is in progress. The strong U.S. dollar is crushing exports and profits of international corporations. Real household income remains stagnant, while healthcare, rent, home prices, education, and a myriad of other daily living expenses relentlessly rises. The world is a powder keg, with tensions rising ever higher in the Middle East, Ukraine, Europe, and China. The lessons of history scream for caution at this moment in time, not recklessness. 2016 will be a year of reckoning for the reckless herd.
Here Are The Key Findings From The SEC's ETFlash Crash Data Dump
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:30
An 88-page "Research Note" from the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets titled "Equity Market Volatility on August 24, 2015," outlines the facts of that fateful trading day, discussing what went wrong, and which classes of securities were affected. The conclusions of the piece are purely factual, with little or no conjecture, and there's absolutely no policy recommendations. There are dozens of unintended consequences already baked into its proposed rulemaking. That's bad enough when you're talking about the inner workings of mutual funds and ETFs; it's a bigger deal when we're talking about the inner workings of the markets themselves.
Atlanta Fed Just Slashed Q4 GDP Forecast To Barely Positive 0.7%, Down 1.2% In Ten Days
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:18
Moments ago, in its latest Q4 GDP revision, the Atlanta Fed just pulled the rug from under the economy (and the market now that bad news for the economy is bad news for stocks), and slashed its latest quarterly forecast by another 50%, from 1.3% to a barely positive 0.7%. In other words, according to the Atlanta Fed, Janet Yellen launched a rate hike cycle in a quarter when GDP will be just 0.7%, and which when averaged across the prior 3 quarters, would mean that the US will have grown at just 1.8% in 2015, a 25% drop from the 2.4% GDP growth in 2014.
European Stocks Suffer Worst Start To Year Ever
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:17
Led by a 4.3% collapse in Germany's DAX index, European Stocks plunged 2.5% today which is the worst start to a year ever. European credit markets spiked higher in risk. 10Y bund yields tumbled over 6bps and peripheral sovereign risk spreads jumped 10-15bps. Not a good start for Draghi and his pals...
Gun Stocks Soar Ahead Of Obama's Gun-Control Executive-Action Tomorrow
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:05
German Anger Boils Over: Shots Fired At German Refugee Home; One Asylum Seeker Hit
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 12:01
Early on Monday, gun shots were fired at a home for asylum seekers in western Germany and one resident was lightly injured, police said. The shots were fired at a window of the building in the town of Dreieich at around 2.30 a.m (0130 GMT), and one hit a 23-year-old asylum seeker who was sleeping, according to police in Offenbach, near Frankfurt. He was taken to a hospital, but was able to leave shortly afterward.
A Close Up Of The Market Ripple Which Stopped Stocks Tumbling At 11:01 am
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 11:45
A funny thing happened at 1101ET. Amid the deep plunge in stocks, 'someone' suddenly traded an enormous block of e-mini S&P futures which appeared to stall the sell-off (for now). This followed a similar (but smaller) block trade at 1042ET which also extracted all the liquidity from the market momentarily and enabled a brief rally.
RANsquawk Week Ahead Video: Market focus will be on the FOMC minutes and NFP following the Fed rate-hike in December
Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 01/04/2016 - 11:35Saudi Default, Devaluation Odds Spike As Mid-East Careens Into Chaos
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 11:31
On the heels of a tumultuous weekend that saw Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran after the Saudi embassy was torched by protesters angry at the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric, CDS spreads for the kingdom have blown out to six-year wides while the implied odds of the riyal peg finally breaking are hitting new record highs.
Dow Dumps 450 Points (Back Below 17,000) As Crude Oil Crashes Into Red
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 11:12
Dispppointing drops in China and US Manufacturing PMIs, combined with a record glut, appears to have trumped Mid-East tensions and sent WTI plunging back into the red. This has triggered another round of selling in US equities, sending The Dow down 450 points and back to a "16" handle...
Market On Track For Worst Opening Day Loss In 84 Years
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 - 10:59
If the market closes here, that would make it a worse first day of trading than in such "dramatic" years as 2008 and 1933. But wait, there's more, because unless the S&P somehow manages to stage a rebound and closes above the current levels, it would suffer the worst opening day loss in the past century except for the historic -8.1% collapse it suffered on January 4 of 1932.
