Goldman Gets Even More Skeptical On Greece And European Domino Theory

"What could go wrong? In the short term, I can think of two serious risks: First, a collapse of the Greek financial system, e.g. via a run on banks. If that were to happen, I would expect an immediate guarantee by the government and recapitalisation of the banks, as necessary, implicitly underwritten by the ECB. Second, a sudden dramatic political shift in Greece away from the present policy towards one of confrontation with its creditors. In that case, the international support becomes obsolete, of course, and we’ll be heading straight towards debt restructuring. In the longer term, all the same risks that I have discussed for months remain, including the government’s ability and willingness to carry through the necessary reforms. The required cocktail of tough fiscal measures and structural reforms aimed at restoring competitiveness has long made me think that the odds are against them making it longer term." Goldman Sachs - can you say unfilled axes?

Red Lights Flashing For UK Credit Spreads According To CDS Market

The CDS market, as always, is prophetic to the dot: after main deriskers in the past two weeks were Spain, Portugal and France, so far the spread blow out in these markets has materialized like a Swiss watch. Which is why Ambrose Evans-Pritchard better be looking at this week's DTCC data, because the credit market is flashing a bright red warning light over his favorite bankrupt country - the UK (incidentally, the week's largest net derisker, just after Goldman Sachs). Second in order of sovereign implosion - Ireland. The British Isles, at least according to CDS traders who time after time prove they have far more sense than their equity equivalents, are about to become a hotbed of credit activity, and not in a good way. The other countries that fill out the top 10 deriskers in the prior week: Brazil, Germany (yeah, failed auctions do that), Argentina (yeah, persistent threat of default does that too), Mexico (yeah, living next to a money printing terrorist does that), Ukraine, Korea, Belgium and China.

Guest Post: Amid Push For Renewable Energy, Saudi Arabia Cautiously Turns Over Green Leaf

The promise of green energy has intrigued the Middle East, where concern about future reserves runs deep, but Saudi Arabia's recent plan for a multibillion-dollar investment in traditional oil projects underscores lingering concern about betting on renewables. Riyadh plans to spend $170 billon over the next five years on energy and oil refining efforts; the country's state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco, will bankroll little more than half this endeavor, according to the Saudi Gazette. The energy giant called it unrealistic for Saudi Arabia to plow into alternative energy sources when the No. 1 cash crop of oil has built its wealth, the report states. "I don’t think that’s surprising,” said Eurasia Group energy analyst Will Pearson of the guarded approach, adding that Saudi Aramco has long been hesitant given the state’s status as the world’s leading oil producer.

And While We Are Discussing Corruption... Perhaps Carl Levin Can Disclose His Yea Vote For Gramm-Leach-Bliley (S.900)

Does Goldman deserve the theatrical roasting it has been subjected to all day? Of course. Will anything come out of it? Not too likely, especially with our president, who made a whirlwind global tour on the Volcker Rule, and now is aggressively backtracking behind the shadow of his teleprompter (or at least until the next Massachussettes emerges, and the next, and the next). Yet in order to keep a fair and balanced perspective on things, it may behoove those watching Carl Levin's sanctimonious monologues to realize that the November 4, 1999 vote on S. 900, better known as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, received Senator Levin's full endorsement. If Goldman is the pure, unadulterated evil it is today, it is so only because of idiotic Senators who were corrupt, or stupid enough, or both, to let GLB pass when it did, and usher in the era of unbridled prop trading/hedge funding by banks with full access to the discount window and taxpayer bailouts.

Any attempt at fixing Goldman must begin with reinstating Glass-Steagal - period. Anything and everything else is smoke and mirrors. Yes it will be painful (for the banks), and yes it will cost massive equity losses due to forced spin offs (for bank shareholders), but it will prevent the next scapegoating circus after the fact. How about we preempt these things from happening for once?

Daily Credit Summary: April 27 - Dismal

Spreads were considerably wider across the board today as the peripheral European nation contagion, that we have discussed, started to spread. The scrambling of debt investors dominated any macro data or earnings today as risk appears to be getting repriced fast and furiously and Main traded wide of IG (for the first time on record) as dispersion rose, low beta underperformed, breadth was terribly negative, and movements were considerable in single-name CDS.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX 27/04/10

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX 27/04/10