Is Something Big In The Market Coming?

"A good friend, and long-time reader, was kind enough to pass along these thoughts yesterday. Basically, the stars are starting to align for something really big to happen...Bottom line: Stronger U.S. dollar. Rising bond yields. Lower commodity prices. Slower growth. And the stock market is flirting at post-crisis highs. Bond yields are rising temporarily and this will very likely prove to be a good buying opportunity; however, over the near-term, higher yield activity may well persist and the question is how the equity market is going to handle this backup in market rates. Recall that the 10-year yield had a March to June 2007 spike of 90bps before the rate and credit collapse took hold in the back half of 2007! Could it be that history is rhyming again? The March-June period has been seasonally weak for the Treasury market in five of the past six years." - David Rosenberg

Full Ben Bernanke Snow-Delayed Speech And Live Webcast

"In sum, in response to severe threats to our economy, the Federal Reserve created a series of special lending facilities to stabilize the financial system and encourage the resumption of private credit flows to American families and businesses. As market conditions and the economic outlook have improved, these programs have been terminated or are being phased out. The Federal Reserve also promoted economic recovery through sharp reductions in its target for the federal funds rate and through large-scale purchases of securities. The economy continues to require the support of accommodative monetary policies. However, we have been working to ensure that we have the tools to reverse, at the appropriate time, the currently very high degree of monetary stimulus. We have full confidence that, when the time comes, we will be ready to do so." Ben Bernanke. Too bad the Chairman will not add that time will not come until the US finally implodes.

Ambac Slumps As Company May Seek Bankruptcy Protection, Enters "Rehabilitation" Of Segregated Account

“The Board has worked diligently over the past two years to forge the best possible outcome for Ambac and its various stakeholders. In light of OCI’s determination to take some sort of rehabilitative action with respect to Ambac Assurance, the Board has determined, after thoughtful and careful consideration, that compliance with the direction of OCI to establish the segregated account of Ambac Assurance and to consent to the terms of the proposed settlement agreement of our CDO of ABS portfolio is the best alternative available. The actions taken today, together with the proposed settlement if effected, commute substantially all of our CDO of ABS exposure at a substantial discount to the expected present value of potential claims. While certain structured finance asset classes and other credits have been segregated for rehabilitation, virtually the entire insured municipal portfolio remains outside the rehabilitation proceedings. The Ambac Board and management team are committed to continuing to work hard to manage our resources effectively in the service of all constituents.” - Michael Callen, Chairman of the Board of Directors

Frontrunning: March 25

• Jonathan Weil: John Mack's short story was too dumb to fail (Bloomberg)
• Oops - RBS CDS surge on rumor of debt restructuring - yet another bankruptcy-cum-bailout for the Greek bond-laden third-tier repository of toxic assets? (Bloomberg)
• As expected, the entire manipulated, short-squeeze based market run up was merely for the benefit of the government selling its Citi stake (Reuters)
• Dubai bail out #2 (Bloomberg)
• Jobless claims still materially over 400,000 6 months after the "end" of the recession (Bloomberg)
• As Zero Hedge first reported, Social Security to see payout exceed pay-in this year (NYT)
• David Tepper probed by the SEC (WSJ)
• Cramer explains why he was wrong once again (CNBC)

RANsquawk 25th March Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

RANsquawk 25th March Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

Meet The 15 Institutional Investors That Matter The Most To Morgan Stanley

The following presentation from November 2009 highlights the top 15 institutional investors that matter more than anyone to Morgan Stanley: essentially the execution and head PM guys who throw MS orders of $100 million and above (all the way to $1 billion and higher). Among the companies listed are BlackRock, Capital Group, Fidelity, Gartmore, GIC, Norges Bank, Wellington, Eton Park, Jabre Capital, James Caird, Meditor, Moore, Och Ziff, and, of course, Paulson. As for the trader envy (as in my G-V is bigger than your Dassault), here are some names to remember Greg Bennett, Nigel Bolton, Philippe Jabre, John Paulson (duh), Greg Coffey and Julian Rifat. Oh wait, did we say Julian Rifat, the same guy that just got busted in the biggest UK insider trading scandal? Hmm: looks like Morgan Stanley sure has an eye for talent. We can't wait to see the metal detectors at Morgan Stanley's Christmas party, as clients demand a bug-free environment. Also, if you didn't make the list - don't despair. Just make sure you front run about $10 billion worth of orders in 2010 and you are golden.

Guest Post: Fate of Foreign Oil Investors In Limbo Amid Ghana-Côte d’Ivoire Border Dispute

A maritime boundary dispute between Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire that erupted this month casts doubt on future international oil claims near the contested area and raises questions about the reaction of foreign investors to the uncertainty. Earlier this month, Côte d’Ivoire appealed to the United Nations to delineate its offshore border with Ghana, a bid seen as controversial since Russia’s Lukoil discovered oil reserves only days before off Ghana’s coast. Ghana’s Jubilee field will also begin operations later this year and give the country commercial oil-producer status.