Greek 3 Year Bonds Yielding 11.3%, As German Party Member Says Greece Needs Further Austerity Or Should Leave EurozoneSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/22/2010 - 09:30
Move along, Greece is still "contained." There's probably 5 corporate names in all of the US that are yielding that much right now. And to add jet fuel to the flames, Handesblatt reports that a German party member says Greece should institute "further austerity measures or leave the eurozone." Goodbye euro.
All hell is breaking loose in Europe on the just released EuroStat report which presents an "objective" look at various countries' realistic debt and budget deficit pictures sans governmental propaganda and lies. And while Greece is getting pounded for good reason, another country where the discrepancy between estimates and reality was even worse is Portgual, whose deficit EuroStat disclosed at -9.4%, on expectations of a -8% number. In the meantime Goldman is reaping a veritable bonanza trading 1 Year Greek CDS (which is at 900 bps) which now has a 200 bps bid/ask spread! Other entities getting bushwhacked as a result include Ireland, which is 23 wider at 173 bps (nothing flattering about the Irish in the EuroStat report either), and Banco Comercial Portugues SA which is 38 bps wider to 297. PIIGS are officially in freefall after the truth has finally set them free.
WSJ reports that Isreal is investigating a pre-dawn launch of "at least one Katyusha rocket which landed near the Jordanian port of Aqaba." Jordan notes the report with passing indifference, and goes back to buying ES and AMZN using Redi and Sigma X.
Yesterday we found out that North Korea had, as everyone was well aware, in fact attacked South Korea by sinking its ship using a submarine torpedo, heating up geopolitics in the peninsula. Today we find out that Iran's Revolutionary Guard has started large-scale war games in the strategic Straits of Hormuz via Reuters. Surely, Israel will note this with passing indifference and go back to buying US consumer retail and REIT stocks in bulk, especially after watching Steve Liesman's latest "breaking" expose on Goldman by Goldman.
- Asia stocks decline, Yen gains on concern over Obama financial reform plan.
- Greek bond yields surged to new crisis highs, a move that coincides with a slump in volumes.
- Massive fire on an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico left 11 workers missing.
- Russia, Egypt seek to raise $8.5B in return to overseas bond market.
- Singapore to review Hedge, PE funds rules as regulators increase oversight.
- Altria Group's Q1 earnings rose 38% to $813M on market share gains. Revs up 27%.
- AMR Corp.'s Q1 loss widened to $505M on higher fuel costs. Revs up 4.7% at $5.07B.
- AT&T's Q1 profit fell 21% to $2.48B, largely on a health-care charge. Revs flat at $30.65B.
Moore Capital, which was recently blamed for being a CDS "speculator" by Greece and the EU, discloses that it is in fact net long Greek duration (and its P&L is suffering as a result), according to a fund letter obtained by MarketWatch. It is thus not surprising that the fund is lamenting the botched Greek rescue, and the end of the EMU and hopes an effective bail out will soon be instituted. After all most leading hedge funds have been buying up Greek cash debt on the way down (and this certainly includes Paulson) without CDS hedging; they need it to avoid having the embarrassment of explaining to their LP how the only bet on global moral hazard so far this year has not panned out.
The finance minister has failed to convince Conservative MPs to approve his chosen tactic to get the financial help package for Greece fast through parliament. The finance minister had planned to "attach" the financial help to a draft law that had already passed most of the usual parliamentary hurdles. This plan, however, has now been rejected by the Conservative MPs who demanded a specific stand alone law. This may significantly delay the whole process of parliamentary approval. There is the possibility of fast track legislation that would take only about two weeks but the opposition would need to approve this. All this does not imply that the financial help will not be approved by parliament in the end, but it has significantly increased the possibility that the German part of the package will be disbursed only later. - Erik Nielsen
Game Over: EuroStat News Blows Up Greece - 3 Year Spread At Ridiculous 870 bps, 5 Year CDS Hits Record 565Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/22/2010 - 08:11
We warned you (here and here). EuroStat reports that the Greek budget was really 13.6% of GDP and the Debt/GDP is more like 115.1%. Greek bond spreads explode to a ridiculous 562 bps on the news, 3 years are at 870, and 5 Year CDS is at 565.
RANsquawk Breaking News: Greek Fears Re-Ignited And RANsquawk European Morning Briefing- Stocks, Bonds, FX 22/04/10Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/22/2010 - 08:03
RANsquawk Breaking News: Greek Fears Re-Ignited And RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX 22/04/10
In a stunning revalation, Reuters reports that according to South Korean intelligence, the Cheonan ship sinking in late March is due to a torpedo fired by a North Korean submarine. The Kospi is down just 1% right now: we have a feeling it won't stay that way for long once this news is digested. After many had thought that South Korea was clearly covering for what was an overt North Korean act of aggression, this news is sure to take the Pacific Rim market to the edge. If Seoul is overtly accusing North Korea, it can only mean that South Korea will demand direct or indirect retaliation against the North as its government has already come out looking like both incompetent and cowardly. What kind of retaliation by the North this would in turn generate is completely unknown and could potentially escalate into full out conflict. According to South Korean intelligence and the US military, North Kora is now stepping up "drills to infiltrate a submarine south of the naval border, and wage a surprise attack against the South." Next stop - war? It may even cause the S&P to end on a downtick in tomorrow's session. On the other hand, global thermonuclear warfare surely is a victory for the gamma radiation scraper bulls.
What do you do when you are the prime minister of a bankrupt country and your only recourse is to get the Washington D.C.-based IMF to come in and tell you you have to cut wages by about 120% and fire 75% of the country (especially after the same Germans you recently demanded WWII reparations from, mysteriously have decided in the eleventh hour to have their last laugh at your expense). Why, you send in the national guard, armed with fake six-pack ridged bulletproof vests and gas masks, to repeat the miracle of Thermopylae against the marauding population which has suddenly realized that the past 10 years of chimeric happiness were a one-time miracle thanks to Mr Goldman and fat, and somewhat stupid, uncle Almunia. The next thing you do, once you realize you are about to have a [revolution|uprising|civil war] is to declare a moratorium on your €300 billion of debt, make your people happy and stick it precisely to the same bankers that you complain about every single day for "speculating" against you. Tomorrow Greece will face the trifecta of a much delayed hangover as 1) its bonds hit 9% as the hedge funds who have been buying up in expectations of a snapback capitulate, 2) EuroStat declares its deficit was officially 14%, and 3) a Greek civil servant strike in their fourth national walkout this year.
Open Thread: This Reader Is Not Making Any Payments On Just Under $100,000 Of Credit Card Bills, Are You?Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2010 - 19:34
From the mailbag:
Brief update on my lenders' attempts to collect credit card debt. Stopped making all payments over a year ago.
BANK OF AMERICA $35,000
CHASE BANK $16,000
Chase Bank has been singularly aggressive, in January filing civil suit represented by Zwicker & Assoc. As to the others, collection company mailings and phone calls have mostly ended, leaving the impression that they are following the Chase case. Not at all surprising, but hopefully informative. Perhaps time for another solicitation of related anecdotes?
So, dear readers, which is it? Are you all dutifully filing taxes, paying off your bills, sending in your monthly mortgage checks and prefunding Goldman's now-quarterly bonus payments? Or have you maxed out your last remaining credit card to buy Kindles (that's a given) and bars of silver? Let us know.
On April 7, 2010 the President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev fled the capital city of Bishkek that was under a state of emergency after antigovernment protesters started clashing with security forces following incidents that started in the Northern city of Talas, close to the Kazakhstan border. By the end of April 7, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty was reporting 40 dead and 400 wounded, numbers that have over doubled since. In this context, one can only wonder which country in Central Asia could be next, if any, and which Central Asian leader could find himself out of a job and possibly on an airplane.
It was a peculiar session on Wednesday. If one looked at the benchmark expiring crude oil contract, one saw a market unable to build on Tuesday’s gains, a market that was lightly lower despite a generally improving mood among investors that he economy is coming right. In a lower front-month crude contract, traders saw a very disappointing weekly DOE report, which had shown builds in all three major categories, in marked contrast to the more prmosing report that had come out Tuesday evening from API, which showed drawdowns in all three categories. One might also have seen the stronger US dollar, the very mild gains in the DJIA and lingering concern over the impact of last week’s volcanic eruption in Iceland, which had grounded most of Europe’s air transportation fleet up through yesterday. Most of Wednesday’s inputs were bearish.
Richard Koo Says If Banks Marked Commercial Real Estate To Market,It Would "Trigger A Chain Of Bankruptcies"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2010 - 18:22
Richard Koo's latest observations on the US economy are as always, a must read. The critical observation from the Nomura economist explains why the realists and the naive idealists are at greater odds than ever before: the government continues to perpetuate, endorse and legalize accounting fraud in the hope that covering everything up under the rug will rekindle animal spirits. The truth, as Koo points out, is that were the FASB to show the real sad state of affairs, the two core industries in the US - finance and real estate, would be bankrupt. "If US authorities were to require banks to mark their commercial real estate loans to market today, lending to this sector would be extinguished, triggering a chain of bankruptcies as borrowers became unable to roll over their debt." In other news Citi, Bank of America, and Wells just reported fantastic earnings beats on the heels of reduced credit loss provisions. Nothing on the conference call mentioned the fact that all would be bankrupt if there was an ounce of integrity left in financial reporting, and that every firm is committing FASB-complicit 10(b)-5 fraud. One day, just like Goldman's mortgage follies, all this will be the subject of epic lawsuits. But not yet. There is some more money to be stolen from the middle class first, by these very firms.