Morning Thoughts From Art Cashin

As we noted in Friday’s Comments, some traders thought the surprise Discount Rate hike by the Fed may have been a pre-emptive strike at inflation expectations and the bond vigilantes. The Fed has said over and over again that inflation “expectations” are a primary concern of theirs. By the time actual inflation breaks out, the Fed would be behind the curve, so it is expectations they monitor. Thursday morning the PPI spiked sharply. That, some thought, may have inspired the surprising Discount Rate hike in the late afternoon. If so, the Fed might have fired too soon. Friday morning, the CPI was downright deflationary. The core CPI fell 0.1%. The last time we had a negative reading in the core CPI was way back in 1982. That’s 28 years ago. And, that was when Paul Volcker had interest rates at double digits trying to drive inflation out of the system. Traders speculated that the jump in PPI and the dip in CPI might be a function of management. Companies could be absorbing the higher prices in raw materials (global demand); to keep finished products lower for their clients. It’s an interesting hypothesis. - Art Cashin

European Commission Refutes Spiegel Report About €25 Billion Greek Bailout

Thank goodness the SEC doesn't care about pursuing, well, anything, as its 1-man enforcement team would be horribly torn in trying to find just who the leaks, and the various benefactors, in the ongoing barrage of Greek realted, totally unjustified rumor mongering are. Earlier today European Commission spokesperson for economic and monetary affairs
Amadeu Altafaj Tardio stated "there is no Eurozone plan to bail out Greece" refuting a story that appeared over the weekend in Der Spiegel, claiming a €25 billion fund to bailout Greece was in the making. Furthermore, he noted that Eurostat, which has requested details on all swap agreements done by Greece over the past decade or so, has not gotten all the needed information, due to, wait for it, a 4 day strike at the Greek finance ministry.

Daily Highlights: 2.22.10

• Asian stocks, oil advance as US interest rate concern eases; Yen weakens.
• China mustn't "bow before external pressures" on trade policy: Chinese Trade Ministry.
• China received $8.13B in foreign direct investment in January, up about 7.8%.
• Crude oil rises above $80 on speculation economic recovery to spur demand.
• U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in January, less than economists forecast
• World markets recover from drop following Fed move
• Yuan strengthened the most in 11 months on speculation govt will allow more flexibility.
• Aramco and Total said to hire bankers to sell Sukuk for Saudi Jubail refinery

"If The US Can Do It, So Can We": Japan To Keep Pumping Cash And Monetizing Debt Until Deflation Goes Away

And with that Japan joins the competitive devaluation currency race, in which both the SNB and Federal Reserve have a substantial head start (the euro and the fat Brussels bureaucrats are in a ouzo daze, with no clue what the hell is going on). Speaking before lawmakers BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who recently said Japan was powerless to fight deflation on its own, has changed his tune, and today said that Japan will print the kitchen sink if it has to to beat "stubborn deflation." In a speech before the Lower House Budget Committee Shirakawa said that not only will Japan continue monetizing its debt (at least unlike Bernanke, he admits it), but that they will happily accelerate this action if it means killing the Yen and creating a glimmer of hope for inflation. Carry traders everywhere rejoice.

Titlos SPV - Back In The Spotlight

You read about it here a week ago. Now read about it in the Wall Street Journal.

Recreating Mercantilism In Europe, Europe's Deflationary Torture, And The L-Shaped Recession

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is outstanding in his expose on Europe's increasingly more evident deflationist cul-de-sac, and the ever more obvious L-shaped "recovery" facing Europe. While it has taken fans of the euro currency a mere two short months to not just diametrically change their exposure vis-a-vis the "long" currency of choice, but to allow speculators to build record euro short positions, the question of how America (and China by virtue of its dollar peg) will deal with euro currency that has no choice but to go lower, becomes an increasingly thorny issue. And to further confound deficit worries, recent overtures by the Fed in the form a discount rate hike make it all too obvious that the bond market will likely soon demand a much more substantial "pound of flesh" to fund America's burgeoning deficit. In this context, the threat of increasing rates, coupled with a euro that could reach $1.25 according to Morgan Stanley, and hit a low of $1.10 according to Albert Edwards, makes the policy prospects before the Federal Reserve so much more daunting.