Apparently the market finally woke up: seconds ago SocGen shares, completely out of nowhere, just took a massive spike lower, tumbling a good 8% on no news. There is a goal seeked version that attributes the move to remarks by Noyer discussing French bank stability may have caused this but this makes little to no sense, as they were supposed to be favorable for banks. It appears like a major block was dumped as someone realized they have had enough with the rollercoaster. Now the question is: "why?"
Jim Cramer On TurboTax Tim: "If Geithner Gets To Be Treasury Secretary We Are Kaput, We Are Completely And Royally Hosed As A Nation"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/14/2011 - 09:06
As if one admittedly market manipulating clown interviewing another admittedly tax challenged clown is not the biggest time waster in the world, here is an actual moment of honesty from at least one of the clowns (the other one should be completely ignored: after all it was him who said that there is no chance the US will be downgraded three months before it was... why anyone listens to this pathologically wrong liar is beyond us). So... without further ado here is Cramer's 2008 rant on Tim Geithner: "If Tim Geithner, the much praised and ballyhooed NY Fed Chairman gets to be Obama's Treasury secretary, and he looks like a shoo in for the job, let me just tell you something, we are done, we are kaput, we are finished, we are completely and royally hosed as a nation... Geithner should be facing a senate investigation, not a senate confirmation...I am predicting he will be a total disaster as he has been as a New York Fed Chairman. Please I am beginning you: don't hire Tim Geithner, he is an academic and all he has going for him is that he is a democrat" For once we agree with at least one of the two clowns.
Nothing good on the US economic front as usual. After all, this is fact and data driven, not based on headline and rumors (even though the BLS does enjoy fudging the data to an extent to make a Chinaman blush). PPI came at 0.0%, in line with expectations, but PPI ex food and energy increased just 0.1%, missing expectations of 0.2%, down from July's 0.4%; it was also tied for lowest since November 2010. The 12 month change in the PPI for finished goods was up 6.5%, the lowest since March 2011. And while finished goods still retained their inflation power, it was in the intermediate space that we saw a major drop of 0.5%, the biggest in over a year and the first decline since July 2010, mostly due to energy goods: "Most of the August decline can be attributed to lower prices for intermediate energy goods, which dropped 2.3 percent. The index for intermediate materials less foods and energy also contributed to this decrease, edging down 0.1 percent. By contrast, prices for intermediate foods and feeds advanced 1.7 percent. On a 12-month basis, the index for intermediate goods moved up 10.3 percent in August." Overall, this gives more leeway for Op Twist and an IOER cut to be announced in one week by Bernanke. Which according to the Fed will be needed: Advance retail sales printed at 0.0%, below consensus 0.2% and down from a downward revised 0.3% in July. Retail ex sales and autos was the lowest since December 2010. Some comments from Bloomberg on this latest miss: Clothing sales down 0.7%, department stores down 0.3%; consumers likely cut purchasing due to rising cotton, other materials costs, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas. "Sales disappoint as households deleveraging, real incomes decline." And scene.
- World Must ’Get House in Order,’ Not Rely on China: Wen Jiabao (Bloomberg)
- Merkel bids to quash Greece default talk (FT)
- Moody’s cuts two French banks’ ratings (FT)
- Geithner Takes Tougher Tone on Europe (Bloomberg)
- Obama to propose Medicare and Medicaid cuts (FT)
- Biggest Brokers Consider Banning Market Orders (Traders Mag)
- Grifters of 'Al Saud, Inc.': How Saudi royals get their wealth (Wikileaks)
- Emerging Giants Look at Europe Aid (WSJ)
- Moody's downgraded long-term debt and deposit ratings for Societe Generale and Credit Agricole by one notch each, whereas extended its review for a downgrade on BNP Paribas ratings. However a French government spokeswoman said that French banks' ratings are still very good despite Moody’s downgrade
- EU's Barroso said that the European Commission will soon present options for the introduction of Eurobonds
- An unexpected decline in the jobless claims data from the UK provided support to GBP
Retail sales, producer prices and business inventories. Also get the final of this week's bond auctions in the form of a $13 billion 30 Year
No, Greece will not be allowed to default. Pinky swear.
Europe must be hoping that the Dutch aren't sensitive people. We are all waiting for the outcome of a conference call between Germany, France and Greece. Holland isn't on the call, yet they are the 3rd largest AAA country in Europe and are responsible for 10% of EFSF's AAA rating. Germany has taken the time to mention Finland's demand for collateral. Finland is only 3% of the AAA portion of EFSF, but everyone is paying attention to them, yet Holland seems to be taken for granted. Holland has their own problem bank, ING, and came out yesterday with a statement that the Dutch government considers a Greek default as unavoidable. Today the Ministry is saying they are making all possible efforts, but didn't say that they still think the efforts will fail and a default is inevitable. Look for the next snag in the bailout to come from growing opposition in Holland. If I was them, I would be annoyed that their invaluable contribution seems to be taken for granted and that no one is reaching out to them in spite of their importance.
Volatility and wild gyrations in all financial markets continues due to a confluence of negative data, news and fundamentals. French banks have been downgraded and Chinese Premier Wen’s call that Europe get its own house in order quashed the unsubstantiated and unsourced rumors regarding massive Chinese intervention to solve the Eurozone debt crisis. European banks are hemorrhaging deposits as savers and money funds pile into other perceived havens such sterling, dollar and Swiss franc deposit accounts. Retail and institutional deposits at Greek banks fell 19 percent in the past year and almost 40 percent at Irish lenders in 18 months. A tiny fraction of these European deposits has gone into gold with the majority going into other fiat currency deposits. It is not just the saver of periphery nations who are opening non euro deposit accounts - many German savers are opening up deposit accounts in Switzerland. Greece’s inevitable default is being prepared for despite the usual denials. A conference call among Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set for 16:00 GMT.
Fed Swap Line Tapped Again - Eurobank Funding Concerns Surge After Two Banks Borrow Dollars From ECBSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/14/2011 - 07:13
About a month ago, European USD funding concerns came to the fore with a bang after one bank had borrowed $500 million dollars from the ECB in a 7 day operation, indicating that, as had been documented before and after courtesy of a rise in Libor that has yet to see a down day in the last 40, dollar funding is becoming a threshold factor (for at least one bank). Well, today we learn that 3M USD Libor, which just rose yet again to 0.349% from 0.347% (full breakdown of who is getting locked out shortly) has become a prohibitive funding mechanism yet again, after the ECB just announced that following 3 weeks of quiet, not one but two banks were "forced" to borrow $575 million from the ECB (the most since June 2010) which in turn had to resort to using the Fed's swap line - expect to see the appropriate number in the FRBNY's swap line ledger with the ECB and the Fed's H.4.1 next Thursday when this data is updated on the US side. Basically despite the market rallying on news that the Moody's downgrade of French banks was "better than expected" the truth is that the situation continues to get step wise worse.
It seems at the first whiff of downgrades from Moody's, BNP were forced into action announcing a series of asset disposals as Moody's announces no downgrade but maintains review for downgrade...
...as expected from the previous post. Now, BNP downgrade a matter of seconds.
Ladies and gents, it starts. Credit Agricole and BNP downgrades imminent.
The most scathing report describing in exquisite detail the coming financial apocalypse in Europe comes not from some fringe blogger or soundbite striving politician, but from perpetual bulge bracket wannabe, Jefferies and specifically its chief market strategist David Zervos. "The bottom line is that it looks like a Lehman like event is about to be unleashed on Europe WITHOUT an effective TARP like structure fully in place. Now maybe, just maybe, they can do what the US did and build one on the fly - wiping out a few institutions and then using an expanded EFSF/Eurobond structure to prevent systemic collapse. But politically that is increasingly feeling like a long shot. Rather it looks like we will get 17 TARPs - one for each country. That is going to require a US style socialization of each banking system - with many WAMUs, Wachovias, AIGs and IndyMacs along the way. The road map for Europe is still 2008 in the US, with the end game a country by country socialization of their commercial banks. The fact is that the Germans are NOT going to pay for pan European structure to recap French and Italian banks - even though it is probably a more cost effective solution for both the German banks and taxpayers....Expect a massive policy response in Europe and a move towards financial market nationlaization that will make the US experience look like a walk in the park. " Must read for anyone who wants a glimpse of the endgame. Oh, good luck China. You'll need it.