PIMCO Sells $37 Billion In Treasuries, Adds Bunds, MBS And Cash As Total Return Fund Hits Record In December

Congratulations Bill Gross: PIMCO's flagship Total Return Fund closed December at $202 Billion, representing $70 billion in net inflows, more than the combined inflows of the prior three years. December also saw a curious reshuffling of TRS' portfolio: Gross sold a whopping $34 billion in Treasuries, bringing the total to $64.6 billion from $101.7 billion in November. And while the bond manager surprisngly added $10 billion in MBS (now accounting for 17% of holdings) after selling $95 billion in MBS to the Fed in the previous 10 months, for the first time (probably ever) PIMCO's holdings of Treasuries and MBS accounted for less than half of total holdings. As was previously noted, Bill Gross notably increased his non-US Developed country bond holdings by $22 billion to $32.3 billion, which is a direct result of his recent purchases of German Bunds.

Roubini Blasts Faulty Fed Monetary Policy

Joseph Mason from Roubini Global Economics has written an interesting analysis of Fed monetary policy, focusing on the Fed Fund rate as the primary tool of economic intervention, in which concludes that the Fed's traditional weapon for moderating the business cycle is becoming increasingly irrelevant, and has reached a point where the traditional central bank arsenal could be considered irrelevant. By analyzing historical data of rate tightening into and during recessions, coupled with loosening interventions, Mason observes that by "reducing rates before recession may both add to the speculative fury that will (eventually) necessitate the (potentially larger) downturn and leaves no room to lower rates in order to address lagging effects like unemployment." If correct, and if the excess reserve phenomenon currently witnessed, which is purely a function of negative implied interest rates per the Taylor rule, is unable to force the economy into a recovery mode, the Fed will be left with absolutely no additional mechanisms to facilitate monetary expansion, resulting in an impotent Federal Reserve, whose only function would then become to fund balance sheet shortfalls at major financial institutions. And if there is a an actual empirical point arguing that the Fed no longer needs to exist, in addition to all the rhetoric we have witnessed over the past year which implicates the Fed as merely a proxy vehicle for banker status quo perpetuation, this could very well be it.

Democrats Seek To Reconfirm Bernanke This Friday

And not a day too soon: The Chairman has about 12 days left in his tenure before things get really surreal.

Developing Story

Bernanke Yields To Pressure, Welcomes "Full Review" Of AIG, Copies Boilerplate Language From Prior Testimony

Ben Bernanke has yielded to increasing public pressure to finally disclose all the details surrounding the AIG bailout, and in a letter to Acting Comptroller General Gene Dodaro, Bernanke said he would welcome a full review of the AIG taxpayer bailout by the GAO and will make available "all records and personnel necessary to conduct this review," emphasizing that a review should give taxpayers "the most complete understanding of our decisions and actions." One wonders why stop at AIG? Why not open up the Fed to a GAO audit on all bank bailout activities undertaken in the period commencing with the GSE nationalization, and culminating with the Lehman bankruptcy. Surely that would provide an ever more "most complete" understanding of just who got what and how much taxpayer capital was put just so Wall Street could enjoy another record bonus season.

Observations On The Aftermath Of The Artificial Recovery From Dean Baker

Dean Baker, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, has put together a simple yet comprehensive presentation on a topic Zero Hedge has discussed in the past: how the demographic shift in the US will mirror the spender-to-saver transformation of an aging Japanese society, and as a result lead to an accentuation of the economic crisis into the double-dip phase, should all the artificial , one-time stimulus actions be phased out. For all those who think that a "new normal" with unemployment straddling double digits for years to come will be conducive to growth, think again. And after today's failed referendum on Obama's healthcare policies, America's immediate future will be focused on two simple propositions: [yes/no] on stimulus and [yes/no] on Q.E. 2. Everything else will be smoke and mirrors.

Is Silver The New Gold?

"Relative to oil, silver could surge 4x from here and it still wouldn’t match the prior high in this relationship over three decades ago. Considering the problems that plague every major currency in the world, from the U.S. dollar, to the Yen, to the Euro, to sterling, and knowing from the McKinsey report that the need to monetize the surge in public debt will be required to cushion the economic blow from what will likely be another 5-6 years of deleveraging in the private sector, and given the much more stable supply outlook for silver (all the low-cost shallow mines on the planet have already been gutted) and where it trades relative to gold, not to mention what little attention the metals grabs and how under-owned it still appears to be, exposure to silver, whether it be in bars, coins, ETFs or mining companies, is likely going to be prove to be a very attractive investment in coming years." - David Rosenberg