No QE Coming From The ECB

On Monday we posted "Goldman Says European QE Will Come In 2015 At The Earliest, If At All" in which we showed for the latest time that Europe's grand delusion that 'QE is coming" (a rumor originated late last year by none other than a French bank) and all of which has already been fully priced into peripheral bonds and local stocks by now, is nothing but yet another massive bluff by the former Goldmanite and current ECB head who has taken lying about the future to a whole new level. Today Reuters confirms as much when it reports that while the ECB may ease modestly (a step which will achieve nothing to unclog the loan creation pathway to private companies), it will not undertake QE at this point.

Frontrunning: May 14

  • Vietnam mobs set fire to foreign factories in anti-China riots (Reuters)
  • Recession-Baby Millennials Scarred by U.S. Downturn Spurn Stocks (BBG)
  • U.S. Agents Start Hunting for Sanctioned Russians’ ‘Shiny Toys’ (BBG)
  • Russia moves to oust US from International Space Station (FT)
  • China Central Bank Calls for Faster Home Lending in Slump (BBG)
  • Geithner Must Give S&P Documents in U.S. Fraud Suit (BBG)
  • Samsung's 'crown prince' in focus as father hospitalized (Reuters)
  • Yahoo buys mobile 'self-destruct' messaging app Blink only to shut it down (Reuters)
  • Goldman’s Twitter banker joins hedge fund (FT)
  • Keyword being "unexpectedly": Sony Unexpectedly Forecasts Loss Amid PC Restructuring Costs (BBG)

Treasury Yields Tumble In Europe, US On ECB QE Disappointment

Overnight Europe got two mini lessons: i) that rumors spread by conflicted French banks about "imminent" ECB QE don't always, if ever, come true, after the ECB spent a decent portion of the overnight session explaining, via Reuters, that while the central bank would engage in "some stimulus for the euro zone economy but falls short of the large-scale effect the ECB could unleash with a major program of quantitative easing (QE) - money printing to buy assets. Such a QE plan is still some way off." Precisely as we warned. The other lesson is that when QE or even hopes of QE fade, bonds get bid due to rotation out of equities into "safe haven" assets. As a result, German Bund yields tumbled with stops taken out (and Goldman stopped out on their Bund short) through the 12 month lows of 1.4% with 10 Year yields following lower and dropping to 2.565% hours ago, or a level not seen since November 1.

China Deploys Submarine Near Vietnam Oil Rig, 86 Vessels Now Present

With the additional deployment of a submarine and a missile ship, there are now 86 Chinese vessels accompanying the oil rig's installation in Vietnam's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Local news reports that 3 Chinese military ships are surrounding a Vietnamese marine police vessel this morning and water cannon use continues against Vietnamese ships. We addressed the who, what, where, when and how of China’s HD-981 oil rig foray into Vietnamese waters here but, as we discuss below, the enduring question, as with many of China’s recently provocative actions in the Asia-Pacific, remains why?

Rupert Murdoch's Drop Boxes: Where Central Bankers Post Front-Runners On When To "Buy"

The Wall Street Journal appears to be saving money by dispensing with journalists and using human drop boxes instead. Thus in the New York markets the “Hilsenramp” signal is already a well-known event which occurs at approximately 3pm on/during/after Fed meeting days, and is posted under the byline of “Jon Hilsenrath”. In simple packaged form it provides fast money speculators with a message from the B-Dud, otherwise known as William Dudley, President of the New York Fed, on why the Fed will back-up another run at still higher record highs. So today comes a drop box message with respect to ECB policy posted under the byline of “Brian Blackstone”.

What Airlines Really Charge (In 1 Simple Table)

Based on the historical profit cycles of the US Airline industry, this most recent exuberance is starting to come to an end. However, as Morgan Stanley notes in their 'deep dive' report, "other revenues" continues to rise as airlines nickel, dime, and benjamin travelers for everything from flushing toilets to extra bags... here, in one simple table, is everything you need to know about Airlines' add-on fees but were afraid to check online...

The Most And Least Expensive Places In The World For A Cheap Date

Every year Deutsche Bank releases its fascinating index of real-time prices around the world which looks at the cost of various goods and services from a purchase-price parity basis. And as we did last year, we focus on one specific subindex: that looking at the price of "cheap dates" around the world. The index consists of i) a standard bouquet of roses, ii) cab rides, iii) pizza, iv) a soft drink, v) two movies tickets and vi) a couple of beers. While once again there is no data on the "hit rate" of said basket in culminating with a desired date "end goal", what is clear is that the disparity between the most (London ) and least expensive (Mumbai) place for a cheap date is vast, at nearly five times, yet the difference continue to surge (the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer, but all want to procreate) and is nearly double the 250% difference observed just one year ago.

 

If Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Devastating For The US

Does the economy move in predictable waves, cycles or patterns?  There are many economists that believe that it does, and if their projections are correct, the rest of this decade is going to be pure hell for the United States.  Many mainstream economists want nothing to do with economic cycle theorists, but it should be noted that economic cycle theories have enabled some analysts to correctly predict the timing of recessions, stock market peaks and stock market crashes over the past couple of decades.  Of course none of the theories discussed below is perfect, but it is very interesting to note that all of them seem to indicate that the U.S. economy is about to enter a major downturn.  So will the period of 2015 to 2020 turn out to be pure hell for the United States?  We will just have to wait and see.

Venezuela Sets New "Fair" Prices For Chicken, Sugar, Rice & Coffee

It should hardly come as a surprise for a nation such as the US that is used to being told what a "fair" price for interest rates is... and a "fair" price for housing is... and a "fair" price for stocks is... that Venezuela (perhaps a few years ahead of America in the socialism stakes) has seen its 'price regulator' declare today its new "fair" prices for various foods. Coming to a Safeway near you any day now... (as US food price inflation soars - especially ahead of the barbecue season).

German Finance Minister Admits To "New Bubbles" & "Excessive Confidence"

Last week the Fed's Janet Yellen warned of a small cap bubble and now German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says in a speech in Munich today that "monetary policy must reduce its dominant role" to allow a return to "reasonable" interest rates. He did not stop there though...

  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS RATES NOT FULFILLING THEIR ECONOMIC FUNCTION NOW
  • *SCHAEUBLE: FINANCIAL MARKETS HAVE ALMOST 'EXCESSIVE CONFIDENCE'
  • *SCHAEUBLE SAYS MARKET LIQUIDITY POINTS TO NEW BUBBLES

Don't fight the Fed... or the German finance minister... (though with the DAX and S&P at record highs today, he must be talking about bonds or Russian stocks as the bubble that is excessively confident)

American Dependency (And The 3rd Day Of The Month Effect)

Having noted America's surging government dependence before, the impact of almost 50 million people on food stamps is hard to imagine if you are not in retail food. The spike in business beginning on the 3rd of each month is truly astounding. By the 10th of the month the business begins to normalize and by the 22nd the ship is sinking. When you combine the number of people that receive their daily bread from taxpayer funds with the number of people who work for government we dare say it will be impossible to have an election that ever removes the corrupt from office. Who is going to vote against their pay-check or the food on their table? Sadly, it appears, the soup line is here to stay.

Is There Anything Wrong With These Charts?

UPDATE: *NYSE REVIEWING TRADES FOR 'AOL,' 'NBR,' 'MPC,' 'LO,' 'CNQ' FROM 3:49:00PM-3:51:00PM ET

By now it is clear to everyone that the market is rigged, manipulated and broken. But this rigged, manipulated and broken? Honestly, we don't know, hence our question: is this now "normal" or are these just the death throes of a "market" busted beyond all repair?

S&P, Dow Tower To Record On Turbo Tuesday, Russell Tumbles

The Dow had its narrowest range day of the year today and volume was dismal (as weak as yesterday's) but we made new record highs so USA USA USA. From the start of the day stocks were in a wild world of low volume levitation of their own as bonds made lower and lower yields and USDJPY was not supportive at all. Once Europe closed, the bid for US equities disappeared and Nasdaq and Russell tumbled, with the Dow and S&P catching down to unch. Bundesbank bullshit sent the EUR lower (cracking below 1.37 at 6 week lows) and thus the USD higher (+0.3% on the week). Treasury yields tumbled (and flattened) all day with 30Y -2bps on the week (and 7Y -6bps from today's highs). VIX had another seizure today (this time spiking up) and closed higher.

Congress Vows To Keep Erectile Dysfunction In America

While we disapprove of much of the way the big pharma industry operates, we still think they should be free to conduct their business. Pfizer's interest in taking over (and reversing into) UK-based Astrazeneca would save shareholders billions (in taxes). Uncle Sam has a big problem with this. And Congress is jumping all over Pfizer to block the deal... even going so far as to propose retroactive legislation. In other words, they're willing to go back in time to kill the deal before it even gets started. Preventing Pfizer from leaving is a form of financial slavery. At a minimum, it's a form of financial repression and capital controls. And this is something that should concern everyone.

Investor Survey Explains Why Investors Remain "Side Lined"

While many dismiss the impact of the "baby boomer" generation moving into retirement, the reality is likely to be far different. If the current survey is representative of that particular group, the drag on the financial markets and economy over the next decade could be quite substantial.