Cable Surges Into Green For 2015 As Post-Election Euphoria Continues

GBPUSD is now up 3 big figures since the first exit polls hit, testing 1.5550 this morning and back to unchanged for the year. While initial fears of Brexit stymied the response to the Tory victory, it appears trader are pressing for stops above 1.5550 seeing more room to run here before Brexit possibilities begin to weigh.

Back By Popular Demand: Presenting The Blow-Off Top In Stock Buybacks

Yesterday we showed the absolutely ridiculous move that is taking place in corporate buyback announcements. And since the blackout period for buybacks is officially over, and announcements can now become executions courtesy of Wall Street's VWAP algos, here again, by popular demand, is the chart showing the record blow-off top in debt-funded stock buybacks which together with central bank buying (such as the SNB) should be enough to support the market even as outflows from equity funds have never been higher.

Germany Gives Greece Grexit Referendum Greenlight

With a deal between Greece and its creditors seen as exceedingly unlikey at Monday's Eurogroup meeting, officials and analysts alike debate the logistics of default and a return to the drachma while Greeks may be called upon to choose between austerity or preparing for the possible introduction of a parallel currency and the economic malaise that will invariably follow. 

"All Clear" For Stocks Cancelled: Gartman "Pleasantly Wrong", Goes "Modestly Long" Of Stocks

Last Thursday, when the market seemed on the verge of breaking lower, we asked if Gartman gave the all clear to go right back into stocks with his assessment that "1890 On The S&P Shall Be Our Target." As expected, stocks soared. It is now time to cancel the all clear: "As we have maintained since early last week, we’ve been neutral of stocks and we’ve now been wrongWhen we are wrong we admit it and we were wrong to move from merely “pleasantly” long to neutral. Our first step is then to become modestly long, and we shall."

Key Events In The Coming Week

Today’s Eurogroup meeting will be key in determining where Greece and its creditors negotiations currently stand. Over in the US today, it’s the usual post payrolls lull with just the labor market conditions data expected.

Saudi Army Strike Force Arrives On Yemen Border In Preparation For Land Invasion

One week ago when news hit that Houthi rebels had launched a rocket attack on a Saudi border town we said that "a Saudi response now appears just a matter of time, and one which the oil-trading algos are eagerly expecting, pushing Brent to within two dollars of $68." By response, we of course meant a land invasion since Saudi Arabia has already been bombing Yemen for nearly a month.  That "time" may have arrived, because as Al Arabiya reports, Saudi Arabia has announced that a "strike force has arrived on the border with Yemen, as the operation to quell Houthi militias in the country continues."

What The Sellside Thought Of China's Leaked Rate Cut

As the SHCOMP soars, the sellside reacts to China's latest round of easing and the message is clear: more policy rate cuts are in the cards as real lending rates remain elevated and deflation risk remains high. Meanwhile, the PBoC's statement was making the rounds on WeChat hours before its official release suggesting Janet Yellen isn't the only central banker that enjoys leaking information.

Frontrunning: May 11

  • Full picture of Clinton charities' foreign government funding remains elusive (Reuters)
  • Greece Readies for Another Week of Deadlines (BBG)
  • Greece says deal will be 'difficult' at Eurogroup meeting (Reuters)
  • Saudi Arabia’s Rulers Snub Arab Summit, Clouding U.S. Bid for Iran Deal (WSJ)
  • Saudi Aramco Said to Plan Spending $80 Billion Overseas (BBG)
  • The $900 Billion Influx That’s Wreaking Havoc in U.S. Bills (BBG)
  • Cameron rules out another Scottish independence vote (Reuters)
  • Banks Prep Defense for Anti-Wall Street Campaigns (WSJ)

Futures Jittery As Attention Returns To Greece; China Stocks Rebound On Latest Central Bank Intervention

With the big macro data out of the way, attention today and for the rest of the week will focus on the aftermath of the latest Chinese rate cut - its third in the past 6 months - which managed to boost the Shanghai Composite up by 3% overnight but not nearly enough to make up for losses in the past week; any resumption of the 6+ sigma volatility in the German Bund, which already has been jittery with the yield sliding to 0.52% only to spike to 0.62% shortly thereafter before retracing some of the losses; and finally Greece, which in a normal world would have concluded its negotiations during today's Eurogroup meeting and unlocked up to €7 billion in funds for the coming months. Instead, Greece may not only not make its €770 million IMF payment tomorrow but according to ever louder rumors, is contemplating a parallel currency on its way out of the Eurozone.

Will Austerity Be The Straw That Breaks The EU & The UK?

How this will not end badly and ugly is hard to see. As we quoted in an earlier article, the number of foodbanks in Britain went from 66 to 421 in the first 5 years of Cameron rule. How many more need to be added before people start setting cities on fire? Or even just: how much more needs to happen before the Scots have had enough? Very much like the Greeks, the Scots unambiguously voted down austerity. And in very much the same fashion, they face an entity that claims to be more powerful and insists on forcing more austerity down their throats anyway. It seems inevitable that at some point these larger entities will start to crack and break down into smaller pieces. As empires always do. Now, the EU was of course never an empire, there’s just tons of bureaucrats dreaming of that, and Britain is a long-decayed empire.

Euro Slides After Reports Troika Is Preparing Greek Plan B, C, & D Including Parallel Currency

Earlier we detailed reports that The IMF was preparing a contingency plan in the event of a Greek default, and furthermore that Andrea Merkel was under increasing pressure to "let Greece go," and now, as Eurogroup ministers begin to gather for today's crucial 'deal-or-no-deal' meeting, Die Welt reports The Troika has 4 scenarios for Greece  - one positive and three increasingly negative ranging from the need for further bailouts to paying staff in IOUs and issuing a parallel currency.

'Resilience' Is The New Black

"Sustainability is so 2007. Those were the heady days before the Global Financial Crisis, before the failed Copenhagen Climate Summit, before the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP)... the list continues. Since 2008, informed conversations on the economy, the environment, and energy have shifted from ‘sustainability’ to ‘resilience’. There are undoubtedly many reasons for this shift, but I’ll focus on just two: undeniable trends and a loss of faith. Let me explain."

Merkel Under Pressure To Let Greece Go As Default Risk Rises

Members of Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic bloc are pushing the Chancellor to let Greece leave the euro, with some lawmakers saying the EU would be better off without the Greeks. Meanwhile, German FinMin Schaeuble warns of "accidental" insolvency.

Goldilocks Unemployment: A Disgusting Bowl Of Porridge

We currently have over 93 Million able-bodied people without jobs – and growing. This is why it’s near incomprehensible, as well as outright disgusting to me that such a dismal showing in both the headline number as well as the onerous implications of such a downward revision to the month prior, coupled with the outright fallacy of suggesting the rate of unemployment has moved closer still to statistical “full employment” came with near giddiness and if not outright back slapping. i.e., “This is a Goldilocks print. Not too hot – not too cold. With a report like this – The Federal Reserve won’t dare raise rates and might actually have to contemplate instituting another round of QE if not outright QE4ever!” And yes; that was the reaction paraphrased across the financial media outlets. Again, personally – I found it all repulsive.

Paul Craig Roberts: Economic Disinformation Keeps Financial Markets Up

As we have pointed out for a number of years, according to the payroll jobs reports, the complexion of the US labor force is that of a Third World country. Most of the jobs created are lowly paid domestic services. No economist should ever have accepted the claim that the economy was in recovery while participation in the labor force was declining. Having looked at the actual details of the payroll jobs report, which are seldom if ever reported in the financial media, let’s look at what else goes unreported in the media.