Fool's Gold - Hovde Capital Bursts The GGP Equity Bubble, Refutes Bill Ackman's Long GGP Thesis

Six months ago, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square came out with a research piece called "The Buck's Rebound Begins Here" in which he concluded a fair equiy value for bankrupt REIT General Growth Properties is between $10.40 and $30.08 per share. While since May the liquidity bubble has lifted all dodgy commercial REITs to unbelievable valuations, courtesy of round upon round of diluting capital raises, GGP being among them, the question of whether the tide has moved too far too fast is once again relevant, both for the broader REIT segment as well as for GGP in particular. Today we present the opposite view courtesy of Hovde Capital Advisors, and their report "General Growth Properties - Fool's Gold: We Think Current Equity Investors Will Be Disappointed in the Company’s Reorganization."

Do Railcar Loadings Indicate An Oil Price Correction Is Imminent?

A 20 year chart comparing oil with railcar loadings may have something to say about either the mispricing of the commodity or provide some insight into Buffett's thinking on his long-term interest in rail. Granted, he started buying rails at or about the market peak so it is unlikely that the Omaha recipient of governmental generosity has this particular correlation in mind, however, it is oddly striking that while in the past the two trendlines have had a very distinct pattern, ever since the pop in the commodity bubble and the collapse of America into a recession the two have converged. On the other hand, as oil prices are driven purely by speculation and reflect very little of fundamental supply/demand metrics, and thus reflect nothing but excess liquidity, this particular convergence may persist for as long as Bernanke deems it relevant.

Shadowstats' John Williams: Prepare For The Hyperinflationary Great Depression

"The intensifying economic and solvency crises, and the responses to both by the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve in the last two years, have exacerbated the government's solvency issues and moved forward my timing estimation for the hyperinflation to the next five years, from the 2010 to 2018 timing range estimated in the prior report. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve already have committed the system to this course through the easy politics of a bottomless pocketbook, the servicing of big-moneyed special interests, gross mismanagement, and a deliberate and ongoing effort to debase the U.S. currency. Accordingly, risks are particularly high of the hyperinflation crisis breaking within the next year." - John Williams, ShadowStats

Is Barney About To Spoil The Banker Party With Proposal To Only Give Retail Banks Discount Window Access?

Even with lots of worthless chatter coming out of the White House in the past 24 hours, one solitary fighter for "the common man" emerges in the form of Barney Frank. Whether this is due to the Congressman not getting a thick enough envelope endorsed and signed by the Big 5 banks, or not, we don't know yet. However, courtesy of our sources on the Hill, the latest development our of Washington is that Frank is trying to generate support for a Congressional bill that would allow only retail banks with a lending function to have Fed discount window access. While this is a brilliantly simple solution to see hedge funds, and for some reason Bank and Financial Holding Companies, like Goldman Sachs finally open up some retail depository branches, the response from Wall Street would be furious. Many banks still exist only courtesy of the last recourse short-term funding option that the discount window affords them. If the Big 18 are forced to lend, which is the prima facie reason for this bill, only to be able to fund their speculative gambling courtesy of zero percent cost of capital, then all bets will surely be off. Goldman without discount window access is the most ludicrous thing imaginable.

No More Failures Ever As Moral Hazard Goes Global: Austria's Hypo Alpe Adria Nationalized

The only way to maintain the global ponzi bubble as insiders cash out in ever increasing droves has now become a wave of rolling bailouts not only in the US, but across the entire world. The latest little casualty that could: Austria's Hypo Group Alpe Adria, the country's fifth largest bank by assets, which was nationalilzed ealier in a €5.5 billion bailout package. But ignore that: Europe is long and strong, with no bank balance sheet assets writedowns, a flourishing export economy, a surging currency and unprecedented growth ahead of soon to be (non) bankrupt Eastern European and Baltic states. The sarcasm in the previous statement is certainly not lost on the Austrian National Bank which said that "the whole Austrian economy has been able to avert a massive threat at a critical moment in time." No further commentary needed. Ben Bernanke's Moral Hazard world tour soon coming to an insolvent bank near your cottage.

Rosenberg Takes On Obama's Hypocrisy Next

"Below we highlight President Obama’s weekly address, in which he blames the big bad banks for luring borrowers into the myriad of products during the credit bubble, a bubble that in our view was promulgated by the nation’s policymakers.

When things go awry, however, it is very easy for those in Washington to point the fingers at somebody else. What did Congress, the SEC, the Fed, and the White House think in that 2002-07 bubble period except that excess credit was creating jobs; in turn, those jobs were creating prosperity and that prosperity led to votes. Now the borrowers, who signed contracts, and as adults should also be held accountable, are being treated as “victims” by politicians and the media." - David Rosenberg