Frontrunning: March 24

  • Republicans Struggle to Unite on Health Bill (WSJ)
  • Trump Still Negotiating in Bid to Save Healthcare Bill Before Vote (BBG)
  • Trump Tantrum looms on Wall Street if healthcare effort stalls (Reuters)
  • High stakes for Trump in vote on healthcare plan (Reuters)
  • GOP Lawmaker Sparks New Battle Over Trump Spy Claim (WSJ)

Italy Falls Out Of Love With The Euro: Beppe Grillo Resurgent In The Polls

Recent polls for Italian politicians supporting the eurozone and EU have collapsed. Pro-Europe polls are highly likely to get worse as a  further splintering of Matteo Renzi’s PD party takes place. It is not out of question for Beppe Grillo’s eurosceptic Five Star Movement (M5S) party to achieve an absolute majority in the next election...

Will Thursday's Final TLTRO Finally Spark Carry Trades?

On Thursday, the ECB will hold its fourth tender under the TLTRO-II (Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations) programme. A large take-up is expected. A poll published by Reuters had a  median forecast of EUR 125bn net borrowing, with estimates as high as EUR 300bn. From a rates perspective, what matters is whether these funds will trigger flows into the bond or swap markets as banks set up carry trades.

Economics Of The Standoff Between Turkey And The Netherlands

As the diplomatic squabble between Turkey and the Netherlands continues to fester, concerns are raised about whether — and to what extent — the tensions will harm bilateral relations, particularly in economics where the two countries have robust trade and investment connections.

Doug Casey Has "Never Seen Anything Like This"

"What's going on in the US now is a culture clash. They don't just dislike each other and disagree on politics; they can no longer even have a conversation. They hate each other on a visceral gut level. They have totally different world views. I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime. There hasn't been anything like this since the War Between the States, which shouldn't be called "The Civil War," because it wasn't a civil war. "

Don't Confuse Immigration With Naturalization

As the immigration debate goes on, many commentators continue to sloppily ignore the difference between the concept of naturalization and the phenomenon of immigration. Immigration results naturally from allowing persons to exercise their property rights. Naturalization, on the other hand, is a political act.

This New Bubble Is Even Bigger Than The Subprime Fiasco

The total value of student loans in America today is LARGER than the total value of subprime loans at the peak of the financial bubble. And just like the subprime mortgages, many student loans are in default.