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Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Control Group Rises Most Since May Delaying "Fed Relent"

There was much at stake in today's retail sales report, because had the Census reported another miss in the headline, ex auto and control group data, it would have made the Fed's job of maintaing the illusion of a recovery into a rate hike cycle virtually impossible. Luckily for Yellen, the numbers came out and they were were beats across the board.


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Deutsche Bank Rallies On Modest Debt Buyback Plan, Schaeuble Proclaims "Strong, Resilient Bank"

Deustche Bank stock is ripping 10% higher after confirming old news that it will undertake a modest debt buyback of $2 billion and €3 billion (not including the CoCos). Have no fear though as Wolfgang Schaeuble proclaimed Deutsche Bank is a "strong bank" that ios "resilient" and "well positioned."


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Europe's Most Distressing Chart: For Banks 2016 Is Already Worse Than 2008

As the following chart from Reuters shows, the year-to-date stock price performance for most European banks is on pace to far surpass - to the downside - the dreadful for the global financial system 2008.


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Deutsche Bank: "Markets Are Crying Out For A Circuit Breaker", But There Is A Problem

DB's Jim Reid today writes that "Markets are crying out for a circuit breaker at the moment."  There is just one problem: nobody knows what this circuit breaks would and should be, or if it would even work.


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Frontrunning: February 12

  • Yellen's dilemma: A downturn with no easy response (Reuters)
  • Clinton, Sanders clash over Obama as they vie for minority votes (Reuters)
  • Risk Grows of Markets Sparking Recession (WSJ)
  • Global Stock Rout Eases Amid Oil Advance as German Bonds Decline (BBG)
  • U.S. Benchmark Yield Will Be at Record Low in March at This Rate (BBG)
  • Oil Prices Rally on Hopes of Production Cuts (WSJ)

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Greece Slides Back Into Recession Amid Riots, Rewewed "Grexit" Calls

As we and quite a few others warned, the new bailout and the attached terms would do exactly nothing to turn the Greek economy around. We’re all for being responsible with the budget but you can’t very well implement fiscal retrenchment during a depression unless you intend to remain in said depression in perpetuity, but alas, that’s exactly what Brussels forced Greece to do and on Friday we learn that the country has slipped back into recession.


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Despite Crashing Japan, European, U.S. Markets Rebound On Firmer Oil

Following a week of crazy volatility, overnight exhausted markets took a breather.


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JPM's Kolanovic Warns Upcoming Recession Could Be Comparable To 2008 Crisis; Says "Buy Gold, Cash And VIX"

"Gglobal markets are now facing a significant ‘negative wealth effect’ that has a potential to result in a recession. This negative wealth effect of low commodity prices and a strong USD combined with the slowdown in China could be comparable to that of the 2008/2009 crisis (it involves diverse effects ranging from layoffs in the Global Energy sector to a lack of EM Sovereign wealth flowing into developed market equity hedge funds). While the economists were debating if the low-priced oil is good or bad for the economy, the equity markets never had any doubts – Oil and Equities were moving down together."


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Canada Sells Nearly Half Of All Its Gold Reserves

The government of Canada sold off nearly half its gold reserves in recent weeks, continuing a pattern of moving away from the precious metal as a government asset. According to the International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics, Canada held three tonnes of gold reserves as of late 2015. The latest data, published last week, show the total Canadian gold reserves now stand at 1.7 tonnes. That’s just 0.1 per cent of the country’s total reserves.


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If Credit Is Right, The S&P Is Facing A 40% Crash

...and credit is always right in the end!


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Is This The Biggest Crisis In History?

The previous "biggest crisis in history" was in 1893 when a serious economic depresion hit America... we just topped that in terms of "crisis"


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Liberty Activists And ISIS Will Soon Be Treated As Identical Threats

When all is said and done, who is the greater threat to you and your freedoms? A psychotic theocrat that has taken his religion so far into the forbidden zone that any evil, no matter how heinous, is justified through the circular logic of zealotry? The criminal government that funded that psycho, trained him, slapped a rocket launcher in his hands and then gave him a free plane ride to your favorite shopping mall? Or, some weirdo that stores lots of food and gas masks in his basement and every once in a while talks to you about 9/11? Come on, think about it…


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Lines Around The Block To Buy Gold In London; Banks Placing "Unusually Large Orders For Physical"

This is the best quarterly performance for Gold in 30 years... "It’s been crazy – it’s been the best week since 2012. We’ve had people queuing round the block..."


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This Is What Central Bank Failure Looks Like (Part 4)

First, it was The BoJ's utter collapse from omnipotence to impotence. Then came the collapse of The Fed's credibility in the short-term.... and the longer-term. And now it is the turn of Mario Draghi's ECB to face total failure, as the European banking system - the prime beneficiary of "whatever it takes" - has crashed back to pre-Draghi levels.


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Crushing The "Oil's Just A Supply Issue" Meme In 1 Painful Chart

Day after day we are told that the plunge in oil prices (just like the collapse in The Baltic Dry freight index) is a "supply" issue... it's transitory and global demand is doing fine thank you very much. Sadly, as everyone really knows deep down inside their Keynesian hearts, this is utter crap and as Barclays shows the shocking 18% YoY crash in distillates "demand" - something that has never happened outside of a recession - blows the one-sided argument of the energy complex out of the water.


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