• williambanzai7
    02/01/2015 - 16:08
    “Quarterbacks shouldn’t leave the pocket, because that’s where the money is. Every politician knows this.”--Jarod Kintz
  • Marc To Market
    02/01/2015 - 11:11
    A straight forward discussion of the factors driving the US dollar. 

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"Obama Is Clueless On Inequality," David Stockman Rages "The Problem Is [The Fed]"

Echoing Elliott's Paul Singer's "greatest irony of politicians railing against inequality," former Reagan OMB Director David Stockman raged that when it comes to inequality, everyone can see the symptom, but "President Obama is clueless as to the cause," blasting that the problem is not capitalism, "the problem is in the Eccles Building and the 12 people sitting there thinking that zero interest rates are some magic elixir that will cause this very toubled economy to revive.! It won't, "these people are dangerous and destructive," Stockman exclaims, and sooner or later the inequality they have created is going to cause a huge political reaction.



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The Death Of The American Dream In 22 Numbers

For decades, the rest of the planet has regarded the United States as “the land of opportunity” where almost anyone can be successful if they are willing to work hard. The “American Dream” has been transformed into a very twisted game of musical chairs. With each passing year, more people are falling out of the middle class, and most of the rest are scrambling really hard to keep their own places. Something has gone horribly wrong... We are the generation that gets to witness the end of the American Dream.



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"It's Different This Time" GDP Hockey-Sticks Edition

Year after year, hope-strewn economists mark up GDP expectations for the year-ahead (in order to defend top-down their S&P 500 earnings forecasts and why investors should always BTFD)... and year after year, those GDP expectations are slashed drastically. Welcome to 2015...



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5 Things To Ponder: Ascending Contingencies

Recent market actions, the rapid decline in interest rates, earnings deterioration and plunging energy prices have made many less comfortable being long the market. While the "buy and hold" crowd suggests this is all rubbish, it should be worth remembering that every single one of that group never saw the corrections in 2000 or 2008 until it was far too late. Their only excuse was "no one could have seen it coming." The truth is that many did see what was coming. Paying attention to what is happening at the margin leads to an understanding of when the "tides" begin to shift.



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Germany Is (Almost) Japan: Bund Yield Plunges To Record 0.33%

At 32.5bps, Germany's 10Y Bund closed at a record low today (within 4bps of Japan's 10Y yield). The Japanification of Europe is almost complete.



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How Do You Solve A Problem Like Syriza?

Rather than be a problem, Syriza may well be a solution, if it plays its cards right, but that still leaves politicians and investors denominating Tsipras et al as a problem, if not a menace. The world’s major banks got rich off the back of the Greek population at large, and when their wagers got so absurd they collapsed, the banks saw to it that their losses were transferred to European -and American – taxpayers. And those taxpayers are now told to vent their anger at 'those cheating, lazy Greeks'. The Troika, the EU, the IMF, and the banks whose sock puppets they have chosen to be, are a predatory force that has come a long way towards wiping Greece off the map. And that’s what Syriza has set out to remediate. And for that, they deserve, and probably will need, our unmitigated support.



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Crude Oil Prices Are Spiking (Again)

In case you wonder who, why or what did it - perhaps this will help: how they did it before ...defendants developed a scheme by which Optiver, having accumulated a large net TAS (defined below) position, traded a significant volume of futures contracts in the opposite direction, before and during the Close

It's not because - everything is awesome again. Some are claiming ISIS rumors were responsible but the size and veolocty suggest otherwise (and insta-stop at the NYMEX close)



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"Looks Like I'll Be Able To Retire Comfortably At Age 91"

You've probably seen articles and adverts discussing how much money you'll need to "retire comfortably." The trick of course is the definition of comfortable. The general idea of comfortable (as I understand it) appears to be an income which enables the retiree to enjoy leisurely vacations on cruise ships, own a well-appointed RV for tooling around the countryside, and spend as much time on the golf links as he/she might want. Needless to say, Social Security isn't going to fund a comfortable retirement, unless the definition is watching TV with an box of kibble to snack on. By this definition of retiring comfortably, I reckon I should be able to retire at age 91--assuming I can work another 30 years and the creek don't rise.



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Bill Ackman's Biggest Winners And Losers Of 2014

Love Bill Ackman or hate him, whether or you think that his outlier "investment" of the year, one which generated nearly half of his P&L in 2014 namely the collusive hostile bid with Valeant on whose balance sheet he piggy-backed in an attempt to acquire Allergan with lots and lots of debt and whose public announcement he front-ran with even more leverage in the form of hundred of millions in call options, was more criminal than the alleged Herbalife pyramid scheme or perfectly legitimate, one thing is beyond dispute - of all the prominent hedge funds, Ackman's Pershing Square was the best performing hedge fund of 2014.



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Chevron Slashes 23% Of PA Workforce As US Rig Count Collapses To June 2010 Lows

For the 8th week in a row (something that hasn't happened since June 2009), US total rig count plunged. This week's 90 rig drop to 1543 is the largest so far (with oil rigs down 94 to 1223 - lowest since Jan 2013).  The total rig count is now down 20% in the last 8 weeks to the lowest since June 2010 as it tracks the 4-month lagged oil price perfectly. This is the 2nd biggest 8-week drop in 22 years. This - rather unsurprisingly - has led Chevron to decide to cut 23% of its Pennsylvania workforce "due to activity levels." Not 'unambiguously positive' as so many in the central planning bureaus would have everyone believe.



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Brazil's Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse

Today's Brazilian economic data follows up quite well to our article from a month ago "Brazil's Economy Just Imploded" and as the earlier article on the crashing Brazilian Real hinted, things for the Brazilian economy how gone from imploding to, well, worse because not only did the twin fiscal and current account deficits rise even more, hitting a whopping 11% of GDP - the worst since August 1999, but its government debt soared to 63.4% in 2014, up from 56.7% a year ago, and the highest since at least 2006. In short - the entire economy is now on the verge of total collapse.



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"First The Deflation - Then The Inflation"

Again and again through history, first you have the massive deflation and then government is forced to debase the money supply that finally reverses the economy sending it into a inflationary spiral. The second phase is when gold will rise. But you first have the deflation (that we are seeing now) that reduces tax revenues and then you have the inflation set in motion by rising costs (waiting in the background).



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The US Economy In Two Pictures



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