RBC: "That Is VaR Crushing DV01 Destruction At Its Finest"

The absolute focus overnight / today is “core” macro though, as global developed market rates are being re-priced “risk manager style,” particularly with EGBs under MAJOR pressure as the buyside is caught wrong-footed (as I type, Slovak 10Y +7.2bps, Denmark 30Y +9.4bps, Netherlands 30Y +9.9bps, Finland 30Y +10.1bps, German 30Y +9.9bps, Austria 30Y +9.3bps…and even front-end seeing outsized moves with the Belgian 2Y +2.2bps).  That is VaR crushing DV01 destruction at its finest. 

Ugly! "Failure Almost Guaranteed" Regardless Of Who Wins The Election

The word of the day is “ugly”. That’s how Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist describes the US presidential campaign, broken social contracts, public debt, and productivity. Things are so ugly, Jakobsen says “failure is almost guaranteed” regardless of who wins the election.

US Stocks & Bonds Are Tumbling

US treasury yields are extending their earlier spike (from UK GDP) with 30Y up 5bps on the day (and the curve steepening). While historical correlation between stocks and bonds has come in a little, it appears risk-parity unwinds are also hitting as US equity markets have dumped at the open also...


Oil Spikes On OPEC Cut Headline (Misses Russian Refusal Headline)

Oil prices are spiking after headlines hit stating that "SAUDI, GULF OPEC ALLIES MAY CUT OIL OUTPUT 4% FROM PEAK:REUTERS." However, it appears the machines missed the rest of the stories, beginning with "RUSSIA TOLD GULF/OPEC MEMBERS THAT IT WILL NOT CUT OUTPUT."

Podesta Part 20: Wikileaks Releases Another Batch Of Emails; Total Is Now 34,197

With just 12 days to go until the November 8 presidential election, the final countdown is now one, and Wikileaks continues its ongoing Podesta dump by unveiling another 1000+ emails in the latest Part 20 of its Podesta release, bringing the total emails released so far to exactly 34,197, with just under 40% of the total dump left to go.

Qualcomm Buys NXP For $47 Billion: Biggest Semiconductor Deal Ever

Last night, David Rosenberg pointed out something troubling:  we have just witnessed five multi-billion dollar deals this past week alone — $207 billion globally (AT&T/Time Warner; TD Ameritrade/Scottrade) in what has been the most active announcement list since 1999. We can now add another massive deal to the list: this morning Qualcomm announced it would buy NXP Semiconductors NV for about $47 billion, including debt, as it seeks to expand the reach of its chips from phones to cars.

Frontrunning: October 27

  • Clinton Foundation’s Fundraisers Pressed Donors to Steer Business to Former President (WSJ)
  • Democrats ask judge to sanction Republicans over Trump (Reuters)
  • Inside the Trump Bunker, With 12 Days to Go (BBG)
  • U.K. Growth Shows an Economy Resilient to Brexit (BBG)
  • Qualcomm to buy NXP Semiconductors for about $47 billion including debt (Reuters)

Stalled EU-Canada Trade Deal Gets Greenlight Following Belgium Approval

One week after Canada demonstratively walked out of European trade talks, with Canada's Chrystia Freeland saying that "the European Union is not capable right now to have an international agreement, even with a country that has European values like Canada", moments ago a planned trade deal between the European Union and Canada overcame a key hurdle Thursday when Belgium said it would approve the accord.

Deutsche Bank Reports Unexpected Q3 Profit, But Wall Street Yawns Asking For More

After serving much drama to its shareholders - and global markets - over the past couple of months, when its stock tumbled to all time lows, Deutsche Bank provided some relief when earlier this morning it reported a modest, unexpected profit of €256 million for the third quarter on lower litigation and restructuring costs, beating consensus estimate. However, to many on Wall Street, this wasn't enough.

Germany's Migrant Rape Crisis: Where Is The Public Outrage?

Despite the mounting human toll, most of the crimes are still being downplayed by German authorities and the media, apparently to avoid fueling anti-immigration sentiments. Meanwhile, the Federal Criminal Police Office (Bundeskriminalamt, BKA) has offered advice to German women on how they can protect themselves from rapists: "Wear tennis shoes instead of high heels so that you can run away."