The absolute focus overnight / today is “core” macro though, as global developed market rates are being re-priced “risk manager style,” particularly with EGBs under MAJOR pressure as the buyside is caught wrong-footed (as I type, Slovak 10Y +7.2bps, Denmark 30Y +9.4bps, Netherlands 30Y +9.9bps, Finland 30Y +10.1bps, German 30Y +9.9bps, Austria 30Y +9.3bps…and even front-end seeing outsized moves with the Belgian 2Y +2.2bps). That is VaR crushing DV01 destruction at its finest.
Pending Home Sales are following the usual seasonal pattern, fading quickly after the summer jump. Year-over-year, pending home sales are up just 2% (NSA), less than the expected 4% rise and considerably slower than the same time last year.
The word of the day is “ugly”. That’s how Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist describes the US presidential campaign, broken social contracts, public debt, and productivity. Things are so ugly, Jakobsen says “failure is almost guaranteed” regardless of who wins the election.
US treasury yields are extending their earlier spike (from UK GDP) with 30Y up 5bps on the day (and the curve steepening). While historical correlation between stocks and bonds has come in a little, it appears risk-parity unwinds are also hitting as US equity markets have dumped at the open also...
Oil prices are spiking after headlines hit stating that "SAUDI, GULF OPEC ALLIES MAY CUT OIL OUTPUT 4% FROM PEAK:REUTERS." However, it appears the machines missed the rest of the stories, beginning with "RUSSIA TOLD GULF/OPEC MEMBERS THAT IT WILL NOT CUT OUTPUT."
For the 21st straight month, Core Durable Goods Orders contracted YoY - the longest in US history outside of a recession. Business spending proxy segment of the report, New Orders non-defense, ex-aircraft plunged 1.2% MoM (much worse than the -0.1% expectation) and down 3.6% YoY.
With just 12 days to go until the November 8 presidential election, the final countdown is now one, and Wikileaks continues its ongoing Podesta dump by unveiling another 1000+ emails in the latest Part 20 of its Podesta release, bringing the total emails released so far to exactly 34,197, with just under 40% of the total dump left to go.
Last night, David Rosenberg pointed out something troubling: we have just witnessed five multi-billion dollar deals this past week alone — $207 billion globally (AT&T/Time Warner; TD Ameritrade/Scottrade) in what has been the most active announcement list since 1999. We can now add another massive deal to the list: this morning Qualcomm announced it would buy NXP Semiconductors NV for about $47 billion, including debt, as it seeks to expand the reach of its chips from phones to cars.
Doug Band provides vivid details on Bill's personal financial arrangements including raising "more than $50 million in for-profit activity for President Clinton to date" and "$66 million in future contracts, should he choose to continue with those engagements."
Twitter surprised investors by reporting a beat not only on revenue but also on EPS, while monthly active users rose by 4 million, to 317, of which the increase in US MAUs was 1 million rising to 67 million, but also by annoucing a major RIF and the start of a restructuring process.
One week after Canada demonstratively walked out of European trade talks, with Canada's Chrystia Freeland saying that "the European Union is not capable right now to have an international agreement, even with a country that has European values like Canada", moments ago a planned trade deal between the European Union and Canada overcame a key hurdle Thursday when Belgium said it would approve the accord.
European, Asian stocks fell while S&P futures rebounded as investors assessed a mixed batch of earnings reports while the dollar strengthened to 9 month highs versus most of peers on rising confidence that the Fed will raise rates this year, pushing global bond yields higher.
After serving much drama to its shareholders - and global markets - over the past couple of months, when its stock tumbled to all time lows, Deutsche Bank provided some relief when earlier this morning it reported a modest, unexpected profit of €256 million for the third quarter on lower litigation and restructuring costs, beating consensus estimate. However, to many on Wall Street, this wasn't enough.
“First thing, like I said, thank you for the proposal. And I’d like to get the $20,000 across to you. The second call I’m going to make here is to my money guy and he’s going to get in touch with you and auto wire the funds to you.”
The "Buy and Hold" narrative spewed by every asset-gatherer and commission-taker is perhaps far better understood as "buy and hold on tight" as the following chart shows, for many, equity exposure is simply inappropriate (or too scary)!
Despite the mounting human toll, most of the crimes are still being downplayed by German authorities and the media, apparently to avoid fueling anti-immigration sentiments. Meanwhile, the Federal Criminal Police Office (Bundeskriminalamt, BKA) has offered advice to German women on how they can protect themselves from rapists: "Wear tennis shoes instead of high heels so that you can run away."