Just Out From Evercore ISI: "Sell All Rallies Down To 1900"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 13:57
"With the macro backdrop more vulnerable today than at any time since the financial crisis, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ still near all-time highs, we anticipate a downside move to 1900 on the S&P within the first two months of the year. We reiterate our view that Crude and Energy remain structurally broken and possess significant downside from current levels which will only agitate and exacerbate the ongoing collaps."
DVA Is Dead: Banks Will No Longer "Profit" From Collapsing
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 13:50
The debt valuation adjustment, or DVA, will no longer be included in net income, according to revisions to the fair-value measurement standard published by the Financial Accounting Standards Board Tuesday. The DVA rule increased net income when a bank’s bonds tanked, on the theory that the firm could buy back its bonds at a lower price and benefit from the decline in value.
A Disturbing Warning From UBS: "Buy Gold" Because A 30% Bear Market Is Coming
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 13:35
As Wall Street axioms (Santa rally, January effect, as goes January etc.) are rapidly falling by the wayside at the start of 2016, following a chaotic but return-less 2015, the UBS analysts who correctly forecast last year's volatility are out with their forecast for 2016. It's simple - Sell Stocks, Buy Gold... expect a Fed u-turn.
Another Rung In The Bull Market Yanked Out
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 13:35
The relative strength of the consumer discretionary sector versus consumer staples had been a positive for stocks – not anymore.
China Has A "Colossal Credit Bubble" And No One Knows How It Will Unwind, Marc Faber Warns
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 13:20
"We had a hard landing in the stock market already. We had a hard landing in commodities. [So yes], we could have a hard landing in the economy. China has a colossal credit bubble and no one knows how it's going to unwind."
10 Key Energy Trends To Watch For In 2016
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 12:55
Energy investors got clobbered in 2015, and are hoping for things to turn positive as we head into the New Year. What can we expect in 2016? Here is a rundown of some key trends to watch for...
A Warning For The Bears: Gartman Calls It "This Is Now A Fully-Fledged Bear Market"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 12:22
Just when you thought it was safe to go short: "We are, for the first time in years suggesting… indeed, we are stating it rather clearly… our belief that the global bull market that began in the spring of ’09 ended, in retrospect, in the very first days of summer of last year. We shall, henceforth, look to err bearishly of equities, holding long positions in some equities, but erring on balance to the short side of the global equity market."
A Mysterious Death Raises Questions In Russia
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 11:52
Intrigues within the Kremlin reignited Monday after the chief of Russia's military intelligence service, Igor Sergun, died unexpectedly. Sergun was a relatively unknown figure who kept a very low profile over his 30-year career, despite the fact that his position at the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces made him one of the most powerful figures in Russian security.
Yes, The ECB Chief Economist Really Said It: "If You Print Enough Money, You Always Get Inflation. Always."
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 11:38
And with that we can finally close the book on slippery central bank semantics on what precisely it is that they do, and what it is they plan to achieve.
"America Is A Gang Of Cruel Robbers": North Korea Boasts Of "Successful" Nuke Test As Skeptics Laugh
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 11:16
WTI Crude Plunges To $34 Handle After Record Gasoline Inventory Build
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 10:39
Following last night's API-reported large draw in overall crude inventories (year-end and exports driven), DOE reports a 5.09mm draw (more than expectations of a 4.1mm draw but less than API's 5.6mm draw). However, Cushing inventories rose for the 9th week in a row (+917k) and more troubling for the future is gasoline inventories soared 10.58mm barrels - an all-time record (and distillates rose 6.31mm barrels). Crude prices already gave up their API gains and are tumbling back below $35 on this build news.
Things That Make You Go Boom: U.S. Spending On Military Aircraft Surges Most Since September 11
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 10:28
Now that the subprime-funded "growth dynamo" that kept the US economy chugging along over the past year has finally choked, as we saw yesterday when auto sales posted the weakest print in half a year, there is just one industry that is keeping US factory orders, which have already declined for 13 consecutive months, from an all out implosion. War.
US Factory Orders Deep In Recession - Tumble YoY For 13th Month In A Row
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 10:19
US factory orders have never dropped this far for so long without the US economy overall being in recession. November's 4.2% YoY drop is the 13th consecutive monthly drop. Revistions to durable goods data shows a 1% drop in new orders ex-defense in November after rising 1.4% in October.. and as a reminder, this data was buoyed by a 46.9% surge in defense aircraft and parts orders to all-time highs. Traders better hope for moar war or the reality of the economy will peak out from behind the military-industrial complex veil.
Manufacturing Leads, Services Follow: ISM Collapses To Weakest Since March 2014 As "Pace Of Hiring" Slows
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 10:07
As goes US manufacturing, so goes US services. In a narrative-crushing print, US Services PMI dropped to 54.3 - the lowest since January 2015. Output and New business growth slumped to 11-month lows, optimism dropped, and input cost inflation continued to moderate as "suggests the pace of hiring has slowed since earlier in the year as businesses have become more cautious." Then, confirming this plunge, ISM Services printed 55.3 - its lowest since March 2014 as unadjusted new orders collapsed to their lowest since February 2014.
Revisiting The Greatest Crash In History
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 09:50
All we can do is point out the risks, so that people can at least prepare on an individual level. A major lesson everybody should take to heart from the Cyprus experience is this: when the next crisis strikes, do not believe any of the promises uttered by government or central bank officials. You will be lied to in the critical moments, and you could stand to lose a lot if you believe the lies.
