Things That Make You Go Boom: U.S. Spending On Military Aircraft Surges Most Since September 11
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 10:28
Now that the subprime-funded "growth dynamo" that kept the US economy chugging along over the past year has finally choked, as we saw yesterday when auto sales posted the weakest print in half a year, there is just one industry that is keeping US factory orders, which have already declined for 13 consecutive months, from an all out implosion. War.
US Factory Orders Deep In Recession - Tumble YoY For 13th Month In A Row
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 10:19
US factory orders have never dropped this far for so long without the US economy overall being in recession. November's 4.2% YoY drop is the 13th consecutive monthly drop. Revistions to durable goods data shows a 1% drop in new orders ex-defense in November after rising 1.4% in October.. and as a reminder, this data was buoyed by a 46.9% surge in defense aircraft and parts orders to all-time highs. Traders better hope for moar war or the reality of the economy will peak out from behind the military-industrial complex veil.
Manufacturing Leads, Services Follow: ISM Collapses To Weakest Since March 2014 As "Pace Of Hiring" Slows
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 10:07
As goes US manufacturing, so goes US services. In a narrative-crushing print, US Services PMI dropped to 54.3 - the lowest since January 2015. Output and New business growth slumped to 11-month lows, optimism dropped, and input cost inflation continued to moderate as "suggests the pace of hiring has slowed since earlier in the year as businesses have become more cautious." Then, confirming this plunge, ISM Services printed 55.3 - its lowest since March 2014 as unadjusted new orders collapsed to their lowest since February 2014.
Revisiting The Greatest Crash In History
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 09:50
All we can do is point out the risks, so that people can at least prepare on an individual level. A major lesson everybody should take to heart from the Cyprus experience is this: when the next crisis strikes, do not believe any of the promises uttered by government or central bank officials. You will be lied to in the critical moments, and you could stand to lose a lot if you believe the lies.
US Equity Collapse Erases All Post-QE3 Gains As FANTAsy Stocks Plunge
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 09:31
But, but, but... it's not a market-driven only by The Fed, right?
Dear Mark Zandi... Please Explain This
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 09:15
If Mark Zandi and his "whatever it takes" seasonal-adjusters at ADP are to be believed, the US manufacturing sector added the most jobs in 11 months in December. Our question is simple - with ISM Manufacturing Employment at post-recession lows and US Manufacturing PMIs at post-recesssion lows, and inventories-to-sales ratios at post-recession highs, why are goods-producers hiring at such a frantic pace?
Apple Tumbles To ETFlash Crash Levels, Saved (For Now) By Another Tim Cook Hail Mary Announcement
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 09:10
Apple's shares broke below $100 in pre-market trading as analyst downgrades and further component producer outlook reductions weighed heavily on the "no brainer." It appears increasingly likely that Tim Cook's "rescue" email to Cramer on August was perhaps not the entire truth.. and the market is trading back to levels it first crossed in August 2014 (i.e. unchanged in 16 months). Of course, amid this carnage this morning, AAPL attempted to save the day and issued a quick statement proclaiming January 1st as the biggest App Store spending day in history... for now the stock is not excited about that.
Chipotle December Sales Collapse; Reports Receipt Of FDA Subpoena, New Stock Buyback
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 08:55
And the hits just keep on coming. In a double-whammy for investors hoping to catch Chipotle's falling-knife, the mexican fast-food restaurant reports a 30% collapse in same-store-sales for December and receiving a grand jury subpoena with regard the California Norovirus event. The stock crashed 10% on the news. However, the stock's initial collapse has been rescued as CMG reports a boost to its buyback program... seriously!
Trade Deficit Improves In November Despite Trade Slowdown, As "Exports Decrease Less Than Imports"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 08:51
The US November Trade deficit printed at $42.4 billion, down from $44.6 billion in October and better than the $44.0 billion consensus expectation. However, instead of suggesting on overall improvement, the only reason the deficit improved is because as the BEA admitted, "exports decreased less than imports", in other words, both decreased. Specifically, imports fell 1.7% in Nov. to $224.59b from $228.36b in Oct, while exports fell 0.9% in Nov. to $182.21b from $183.78b in Oct. A key driver was another decline in petroleum imports which fell $262 million to a total of $10.7 billion courtesy of the drop in oil prices.
New Gallup Poll – Americans Consider Government A Much Bigger Problem Than Guns
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 08:37
"In the same Gallup survey that listed 'dissatisfaction with government' as the top concern for each of the past two years, 'guns/Gun control' was considered 'the most important problem' by 2 percent of respondents, about the same who listed “lack of respect for each other” and pollution.'
ADP Payrolls Soar To Highest Since 2014, Zandi Sees "Return To Full Employment By Mid-Year"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 08:23
Great news right? For those hoping for some "bad news is good news to slow The Fed down" data, ADP is a disappointment. The December monthly change was a rise of 257k - hugely better than the expected 198k and th ebiggest rise since December 2014. Most importantly the goods-producing sector added a shocking 23,000 jobs - despite every single manufacturing indicator deep in recession. Service-sector jobs added 234k.
A Shocked Wall Street Reacts To China's "Surprising" Devaluation
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 08:03- Today’s fixing was a big surprise, and impression is that upside risks to USD/CNY have grown
- PBOC’s actions are conflicting: there was suspected intervention yesterday and sentiment stabilized, but it set such a low fixing today
- Will help loosen monetary conditions; still, risk of capital outflows could increase concurrently
- Expect 5%-10% depreciation by end of the year, though this depends on the pace of PBOC’s intervention and health of macroeconomy
Frontrunning: January 6
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 07:40- Obama, wiping tears, makes new push to tighten gun rules (Reuters)
- Global stocks hit by China worries, North Korea nuclear test (Reuters)
- Oil hits 11-year low, Saudi-Iran row cuts chances of output restraint (Reuters)
- North Korea says successfully conducts first H-bomb test (Reuters)
- Valeant Planning to Appoint New Leader as CEO Remains Hospitalized (WSJ)
- Treasuries Extend 2016 Winning Start With Growth Outlook Clouded (BBG)
The Carnage Returns: Stocks Tumble After Sharp Chinese Devaluation; Brent At 2004 Lows; Gold Surges
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 - 06:55
Before we go into details of the overnight carnage, this is where we stand currently: S&P futures now down 33 points or 1.63% while 2Y Treasury rallies pushing its yield back below 1% as EU stocks extend their drop after China weakened its currency, North Korea says it tested a hydrogen bomb; Brent crude falls to lowest level since 2004.
Germany In Shock After "Monstrous" Attacks, Rape By 1,000 Men "Of Arab Or North African Origin"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 - 23:18
About 90 women have reported being robbed, threatened or sexually molested at the New Year's celebrations outside Cologne's cathedral by young, mostly drunk, men, police said on Tuesday. The scale of the attacks has shocked Germany. About 1,000 drunk and aggressive young men were involved. City police chief Wolfgang Albers called it "a completely new dimension of crime" adding that "the men were of Arab or North African appearance." Cologne mayor Henriette Reker said the attacks were "monstrous" adding that "we cannot allow this to become a lawless area."
